I guess I'd buy more into the recruit bag-game significantly dissipating if 100% of these kids were able to sign-on and start reeling in NIL cash while still in HS.
In 3-5 years (or whatever) when every power 5 program [that matters] has an NIL program running that nearly mirrors the rest after they've all copy-catted each other to oblivion, that's still the perfect environment for the bag game, because an advantage is needed. If a recruit is down to three schools, each with NIL deals that would guarantee him $500-700K as soon as he enrolls, does that stop him from wanting and taking $100K while he's still in HS? Unless part of this new NIL era includes a far more strict crack down on the underground recruiting market, then I don't see why bags are still not an open avenue. Basically: nothing with the NIL has made it more advantageous for a recruit to not also take money under the table.
Now sure, every couple of years or so a university will come up with some revolutionary NIL idea that will give them an advantage with their recruits, but when every other university is doing it by the next year (or two), the advantage has expired.
Now of course, the need to continue bagging these guys through college significantly goes down.
Also, I can accept that maybe I'm missing something here, and will acknowledge that from what I know about you (and some others on here), y'all probably talk to a few more smarter people than I do. So I'm willing to listen to what I'm missing.