The NIL isn't gunna kill the bag game. You're still gunna need to play that game with recruits, though maybe on a smaller scale, because if I'm not mistaken, in most states (and especially here in Texas), these kids can't capitalize off of NIL in HS. Now how much smaller of a scale are we talking? I dunno.
Obviously a dominant NIL showing can lock kids up, seeing they'll be taken care of, but do you think the programs with lesser NIL appeal are just going to sit and take it, or are they gunna try to bridge the gap with bags? What about guys on your level, are they not gunna try to gain an advantage some other way? Not every kid is a Ew*rs who can just split HS a whole year early and start collecting, and even so, they'd still take some under the table benefits up to when they do leave.
I kinda equate it to prohibition. Cool, alcohol is legal now. Everyone just walks up and buys their beer.... except for the 20 year olds and below. So those kids just don't drink then, huh? No, they wanna drink now! And they get theirs... somehow.
Now sure, the side of the bag game where you're keeping up with and taking care of the players already on campus almost completely goes away, I suppose, and obviously taking care of those guys with bags has always shown a recruit that they'd be taken care of as well. So yah, that side of it gets covered by a strong NIL program. But there will always be moms whose car shits out and needs a way back and forth from work, before that kid is able to earn his money.