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Everything posted by gyroprotagonist
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See to me, "The risk profile of people dying in a car wreck is everyone who has ever been on a road, which is basically everyone" this makes sense for what I was trying to show. it takes into account the likelihood of both getting into car wreck and then dying as member of the US population. Taking data vs the static total population makes sense to me and renders nothing meaningless. I guess you differ on that point. Again, we are talking about making blunt observations. Deaths are an absolute metric. The true number of cases is very subjective. Below chart is the case fatality data for the US. Even this says that CFR is a poor metric of of mortality risk, mostly due to not knowing the true number of total cases. 6000 positive post vax cases and 74 deaths. 1.2% Case Fatality rate. 31m positive test and 550K deaths. 1.7% Case Fatality rate. To me that does not tell the story of what the vax is doing for lowering the number of deaths and why the total populations of each set should be used. 84m for vaxed pop and 331m for unvaxed/pre-vax. - positivity rate for the US vaxed 6k/84m .007% - positivity rate for the US pre vax 20m/331m (as of Jan 1, 2021). 6% So after a year of covid, 6% of the population tested positive. But saying .17% died is somehow not a viable metric when comparing the number of deaths of the vaxed population? this puts the US at ~2% right now for number of Covid Cases vs deaths. If you look at the vaxed death and positive testing rates
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don't do the facetrons, but again what's the suckage at math? To try and compare the 74 vaxed deaths from 84m vaxed population with the total number of deaths in the US (550K) you need to use the entire US population (331m) in my opinion. So that's where the .17% number comes from. it's solely deaths from a population. yes, the 84 million are actually part of the 331 million, but since that 84 million slowly increased over time it's difficult to draw a perfect line in the sand. - explain it to me like I am 5. I am not getting your point. My point was to show that there is an large % difference in death between unvaxed and vaxed, with vaxed being several orders of magnitude lower. Yes all nuance was stripped away to use the most basic numbers as a blunt comparison point. you take issue with the .17% number (550K/331M*100). Maybe I am wrong and stupid, so please tell me.
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well then enlighten us, Leibniz
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Got it. Thanks! The article linked a few post down had 6000 cases vs 84 million vaxed So ~.007% of people vaxed caught Covid .00009% of people vaxed die from Covid; and maybe this gets into fuzzy math but take the - 31 million positive tests in the US; half it to take care of repeat positives from the same person = 15 million - 567K deaths in US from a population of 331 million Free range infection rate ~ 4.5% with no vax (vs .007%) Free range death rate ~ .17% with no vax (vs .00009%) That seems pretty significant. 74 deaths from 84,000,000 vaxed. vs 500K from 331,000,000
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Is there data for people who have been vaxed dying of Covid? Like fully vaxed, catching covid (any variant) and then dying? - my google-fu is not strong and it is hard to wade through 'has anyone died FROM a covid vax' to see anything meaningful. Looks like there are vax shots available though CVS in a lot of the bigger Texas cities now - Ft Worth, San Antonio, Houston, Waco Dallas and Austin still show fully booked, but anecdotally you can walk in and get one at a lot of places. Just seems astounding that the data for a lot of states the death rate is climbing. olds and high risk have been vaxed, how are deaths climbing? This is from states that have a higher 1 dose and fully vaxed than Texas. Granted this was just playing around on Google's data sorter. That's why i want to see if there is a death number for vaxed people or if we can assume that all these people still dying are un-vaxed. - To me that is the single most powerful number to show anyone who is hesitant about getting vaxed. "100% of the covid deaths occurring every day are unvaxed fools. There are still 50 deaths per day in Texas and 750 deaths per day in the US. none of them were vaxed."
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What are y’all buying for the next grid failure?
gyroprotagonist replied to Homercles's topic in Daily Texan
have the Honda 2000i and converted to run LP as well as gas. No complaints. bought it 4 years ago and it's started every time i needed it to and mostly sits in the garage between oil checks/test starts. -
Who's been covid vaxxed? Stand up and be counted.
gyroprotagonist replied to High Plains Drifter's topic in Daily Texan
uhgg. Moderna #2 yesterday and feel like crap today. just lethargic and achy but hells yeah to getting it over and done. arm was a lot more sore than 1st shot. definitely can feel the real bits of panther coursing through my veins. yeah, wife (no pics) and i got it same day yesterday and both not operating at full charge right now. Sorry kids, get your own damn cereal this morning. -
Trump and Mel got theirs back in Jan before leaving the WH, right? I don't think he told anyone about it until the end Feb at CPAC. Is it known which one he got? Maybe the bulk of his supporters had moved on to Newsmax at that point and missed the interview, but he would be the numero uno spokesperson to change minds of Republican men, who at one point it was ~50% said they would not get the vax.
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to be fair, - another person can sign them up for the vax and enter their data online for them - another person can drive them to a vax site without signing an affidavit and be fearful of some legalese BS scaring them - getting vax curbside or in their car is an option. For nursing home olds, the vax was brought to them and they were able to partake in their rooms without leaving their home. - can freely accept a cold water while waiting No idea how this JnJ deal is going to play out. Focus on the other two full steam ahead. Open up the 12-15 yo with Pfizer (if the data looks good) and go from there. Then once the dust settles and and we are sitting on a glut of vax in every mega site, pharmacy, supermarket and Microsoft store see what the death rate is. At that point i am guessing it's going to approach zero for every man, women and tween that wanted to get vaxed. Should also start getting some more data on how the death rate/severe hospitalization is vs the variants, but let's not panic the world in the mean time.
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2020 - 2021 Dallas Mavericks: That motherfu*ker in Dallas is coming
gyroprotagonist replied to CBT's topic in Basketball
What happened?? no idea if anything really happened. just heard some noise on the ticket about it and then KP had a weird quote in an after game interview where he could have quashed the whole thing, but said some super generic sports player interview stuff that, while on it's own was nothing bad at all, but given the context of what was asked did not really help the situation. I cannot find the after game interview quote, but it was a softball on 'how fun is it to play with Luka when he is making all these assists' and KP was borg-like in saying they all had to play together. I did see this after the loss to the rockets when luka was shooting like ass https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/porzingis-peeved-dallas-mavs-star-goes-passive-aggressive-after-loss -
2020 - 2021 Dallas Mavericks: That motherfu*ker in Dallas is coming
gyroprotagonist replied to CBT's topic in Basketball
so luka and kp aren't besties anymore? is this just some media manufactured bs? it don't make a shit if they are winning, but kp better not be acting like a bitch. offensive rebounding and hitting 3s DFS is the best DFS -
Dallas cop arrested and charged with two counts of capital murder
gyroprotagonist replied to C-Man's topic in Daily Texan
lol, i saw on the news it was a 'cut and paste' error. -
Seems to me that Mich did a decent job after their initial spike but ran out of steam before the vax could really be implemented. Had a fairly flat line and then peaked in Dec. Covid looks to have hit Mich earlier than Texas, too. Texas had a wave in July, then receded, then ramped up and peaked again in Jan. Maybe Texas had more infected earlier and that number plus the vax number is giving a greater total immunity number earlier and that's why we are not spiking again? Here are the same graphs for deaths. Deaths as a % of total population are roughly the same at ~0.17% Again, if deaths continue to go down and vaxes continue to go up then I have no issues with the current plan. Some places In Texas are yolo and some are still working masks and SD. when i get my 2nd shot i will be comfortable going out in either environment.
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Luke Armstrong (Lances Son) Seems a Bit Rapey
gyroprotagonist replied to Doc Reeves's topic in Daily Texan
yeeesh. this sounds like a tough one. you have a black-out drunk girl and a sober-enough to drive guy who maybe were dating a little at the time. the only things i will say are - no matter if you think a victim is a gold digger or attention horse or whatever, it takes guts to come forward immediately after or 3 years after. you are going to get randos slutshaming you till the cows come home and lots of unwanted notoriety. - does black out (or not remembering) mean unable to consent? I have had friends fill me in on the missing pieces of a night before and the shit i was (alleged) to have done astounded me, but i did not have a memory of. unless the guy admits he got busy with her while she was unconscious, this is going to be tough to prove. -
nah, i was basically this guy. i dealt with IBM (lol) Compaq (lol) Gateway (lol) HP and the like plus motherboard mfgs for the processor and north/south bridge lines. sorta the VOC back to the fab. was riffed as well in 2002. good times
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I bet they either have to keep it operational or at least operational-ready for set amount of time. I used to work at a place that got subbed gov contracts for IC packaging and they are still using chips that were the backbone for stuff like paveway missile systems but we were converting from milspec hermetically sealed ceramic to cheaper commercial plastic packages. That company essentially bought one of the Raytheon lines because they did not want the expense of keeping it running. Another time they took over mfg from another sub that Motorola used for a gov contract. Even though we set up the mfg on our own machines, we had to take in all these older machines that the process was originally set up on 'just in case'. "Russians Uncle Sam dont take a dump, son, without a plan" indeed. there are actually businesses where it's their job to store backup wafers/packages for military/ITAR chips hermetically sealed up 'just in case'. The gov contracts for ITAR stuff usually have very long (20 years) keep-ready clauses where mfgs are supposed to maintain the line/capability to mfg if needed. It would be interesting to see it would ever come to "fuck your pentium, bro; we need 500,000 camera ICs for our soldier's HUDs made pronto"
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JIT works until it doesn't I think the bigger development will be how governments start to view these fabs as 'strategic assets' I went on a sales call to the NSA when i worked at AMD. They used to have their own fab to make their own CPUs but could not keep up with the pace of innovation due to the sheer cost of installing new tech to keep shrinking the transistor size. I know places like Northrup Grumman have their own fabs, but it's usually to make much simpler/older IC. Some Tom Clancy stuff for sure, but say China gobbles up Taiwan and we are basically at war with them. I could see where the US gov would 'ask' Intel/TI fabs to make certain silicon the gov/army needed like Ford built B-24s during ww2. It would get even more complicated with multi-national fabs from Samsung/TSCM etc.. that are on US soil. Fun stuff to think about.
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ah yes, the popular Durian fruit flavor
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lol, finally an expert has weighed in. Look, i am 1/2 vaxxed and am ready to not have to wear one in any scenario and I am sure my kids are ready to not wear one at school. it still just astounds me that people can say masks don't make a difference. Does a cloth mask 110% stop a virus particle from existing the moment it is expelled from your cakehole? No. Does it limit how far the particles from your breath travel? Yes. mission accomplished, mask. thank you for your service. couple that with not packing in places like sardines and it's a moderately effective tool to slow the spread of this airborne virus. In this time of give up, i agree with people that even requiring them at the Rangers game was stupid. No one who bought a ticket to that game thought well I would be worried about spreading the virus sans mask, but I and everyone else will totally be safe since we are all wearing masks. Still i am optimistic about getting deaths down to zero in the near future and let's get everyone vaxxed first before bemoaning about variants and potential variants.
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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such
gyroprotagonist replied to justhookit's topic in Daily Texan
had not seen that yet. I am fairly ambivalent about it. I honestly don't think that a passport will really incentivize someone, who otherwise would not get a vax, to get a vax. The biggest loss here is feeding the antivax crowd more red meat. I am guessing the EO was specific to C19 otherwise we will be having measles outbreak in schools next fall. -
yeah, the 0.2% are going to have to realize that eventually the 99.8% will want to eat them and that pitting the rest of America vs the bottom 10% is not working anymore. Then some of that wealth needs to be converted into circus bread and UBI or everything burns. Maybe a new form of actuary will calculate, to the penny, the minimum amount of wealth that needs to be sacrificed to avoid getting eaten by the poor (job creation!) I think the young will adapt but there will be a huge swath of people who fought tooth and nail to get rid of societal safety nets (while they had good jobs) that get caught up in having their livelihood eliminated and suddenly need it. Or maybe a tailor-made virus that only affects people below a certain credit score will pop up. who know what new and exciting adventure awaits us.
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