Agreed. Here are some reasons:
There a few teams ranked ahead of Texas in the RPI that may not even make the tourney; there are even more that won't secure a higher/more advantageous seed/draw based on the totality of their résumé.
Texas' (current) 12 Q1 wins are tied for third-most in the country, behind Kentucky and Tennessee. While the Q4 losses will keep Texas from hosting, the Q1 wins should help with the draw. These Q1 wins will help Texas' KPI rating, while the Q4 losses will hurt it a lot in comparison to other P5 teams. This is the wildcard here. Mid-majors generally have lower KPIs than RPIs, so Texas' Q1 wins should help here still.
Texas' conference and non-con SOS are currently top-30. Many similar RPI teams have much worse rankings here.
Texas is likely to finish third or fourth in the third-best RPI conference. If third, OU and OSU are likely hosts.
Texas has played much better to end the regualr season against good competition. While I know this isn't supposed to affect seeding, I still think it does to an extent.
Predicted RPI for Texas is 40th (35-20, 20-10). This means it thinks we sweep KU. However, all the above applies. It's liekly that Texas will be viewed as a team somewhere in the 17-24, which would help us miss at top-8 seed.
RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-live
Conference Standings & RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/conference/Big-12
Conference Comparison: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-conference
Predicted RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-predict