Yes, in so much as we talk about responsible society. But here’s the thing, and while I agree the Drake equation does have an educated guess factor in it (how could it not?), those data points toward advancement are well placed. Including the destruction of a society.
I agree some of those could be mitigated, if that path is taken of course. But here is why it can’t at our current level: rogue participants.
We just found the atomic age, relatively speaking in terms of universal timeline. This is the real critical point in the Drake equation.
Not because the US/Russia are going to do it. It’s that one tiny group that gets their hands on a device, or devices, that could detonate just enough of them to cause nuclear winter.
If placed in the right spots, it would decimate crop production for centuries.
But it’s also unstable with some outlying countries right now too. Anyone trust NK?
So that’s just one thing that is possible.
The other is natural disaster on a scale not seen since the dinosaurs.
What would happen is Yellowstone lit off tomorrow? Something like that might not wipe us out completely. But it could easily set society back to the dark ages. I think we get back quicker, provided knowledge is preserved.
But it also could wipe everything out. There’s no way to prepare for that.
How likely are those things to happen?
I think it depends. It depends if a civilization can advance fast enough to have the capability to counter the problem.
For example, maybe yellowstone is set to pop 500 years from now. Who knows. But in those 500 years, maybe we advance enough to understand how to relieve volcanic pressure without causing an eruption.
We don’t know of course, but that’s the scenario playing out in any civilization. How fast can it advance to have the technology to reduce, and eventually eliminate, its own extinction.
I don’t think that starts to become reality until a civilization occupies multiple planets.
Think of resources it would take to settle another planet. A shitload more than a few little habitats you can’t leave without a special suit.
We’re talking science fiction levels of need. Kinda fun to think about.
Well, not yellowstone going off without capabilities to survive, but the needs and challenges of advancing to those levels.