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Gap03

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Everything posted by Gap03

  1. Gap03
  2. Gap03
    The Senate piece is crazy important. Looking at the current state of the Perdue/Ossoff race, Ossoff is currently at 50.03%. It doesn't take much to push that to a special election, given Perdue has to stay above 50%. E.g., if there were another 25,000 votes that came in split 60% to Ossoff / 40% to Perdue, that would push Perdue down to 49.98%, and we'd end up with both Georgia seats going to special election. I'm not sure the Ds would be able to win both, but with Trump off the ballot, I like their chances.
  3. Gap03
    Can I plz haz some pictures of these "stop the count" protestors rolling out looking like this ...
  4. Gap03
    Fucking Georgia GOP. BTW - Dekalb is 83/16 in Biden's favor, so do you think it's any coincidence that so many "signature mismatches" are being found here? If there are really 40,000 votes being tossed, that could represent a net of 26,800 votes in Biden's favor. EDIT: OF COURSE, IF IT'S ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND (PER BELOW), NOT AS BIG A DEAL.
  5. Gap03
  6. Gap03
    Plus removal takes a 2/3 vote. Never, ever going to happen.
  7. Gap03
    A recount can be requested in Wisconsin if the difference is <1%. In Michigan, it appears that an automatic recount is required if the margin is less than 2,000 votes. Otherwise, a candidate must "allege that the candidate is aggrieved on account of fraud or mistake in the canvass of the votes" (in which case he has to make specific allegations of the fraud).
  8. Gap03
    Good call. There's like 6.6% of the vote going for Ind's right now, so if Gideon could close some of the gap, there is a shot. Unlikely as you say, but still a shot. Looks like Peters is closing the gap in MI as well - down < 33,000 votes there - so I think there is a pretty good chance that he overtakes James before it's all said and done. As for the setup of an R controlled Senate / conservative-dominated SC, it feels like this could be really bad news for the ACA. I was hopeful that the Ds could take the Senate and put a reformed ACA right back on the table if the SC strikes the ACA down. Now, I have real concerns that the ACA may actually die, which would be great news in the middle of a pandemic. A lot of Trump voters would ending up reaping what they have sown in the case, but a lot of other folks would end up getting screwed as well. Very 2020.
  9. Gap03
    So, just spitballing here, but what happens if Biden wins, Mitch retains control of the Senate and the new right wing arm of the Supreme Court takes down the ACA? I was hopeful that the Dems could turn around and re-institute the ACA on a more legally sound basis if that were to happen. But now, isn't it clear that the ACA might actually end up being truly fucked in the middle of a pandemic? How do you think that will play in 2022? Or will it even matter because the U.S. populace is so fucking stupid?
  10. Gap03
    Not quite - AZ is 11, GA is 16, and MI is 16. To restate where most think we will end up tonight (which includes AZ + NV + NE-2 in Biden's column), Biden would be at 244 EVs. Any of the following combinations get him the 26 he needs to win: WI (10) + MI (16) WI (10) + GA (16) WI (10) + PA (20) Any two of MI / PA / NC / GA
  11. Gap03
    Nothing would be more 2020 than a 269-269 or 270-268 EC result ...
  12. Gap03
    Fuck yeah, Williamson County!!!
  13. Gap03
    Biden outperforming Clinton significantly in early returns in Ohio. I want to believe.
  14. Gap03
    King is great, but I can't take Wolf. Kornacki it is ...
  15. Gap03
    Some great comments ...
  16. Gap03
    I've grown pretty fond of what the Brits adapted for him in 2017:
  17. Gap03
    He'S JuST Re-tUCkING!1!
  18. Gap03

    Voter Suppression

    Gap03 replied to Pancho's topic in Cloak Room

    In 2016, Trump won Upshur County by 68 pts sooooooooo ...
  19. Gap03
    On MSNBC, they were noting that Detroit officials had recently dropped projected turnout in the city from 60% to 50%. Does that make anyone else nervous, or do you think that the MI polls had accounted for lower turnout there?
  20. Gap03
    Definitely used all of his adderall at the finale rally yesterday ...
  21. Gap03
    EU population ~ 447m, US population ~ 328m, so divide the EU number by 1.36 to get a fair comparison to the US number. That's about 150k for the EU vs 81k for the U.S. They've got a real problem, which is why they're trying to re-institute lockdowns.
  22. Gap03
    Here's how I picture Meadows after Trump finally strokes out in a couple of weeks ...
  23. Gap03
    Some great replies ...
  24. Gap03
    It feels like the effort by Trafalgar, Susquehanna & InsiderAdvantage (both brought to you by the Center for American Greatness, for fuck's sake) and Rasmussen is to create enough right-leaning polls to swing the RCP average (which doesn't account for the quality of the polls in the same way that 538 does) so that Trump can scream that he won and have it not look quite so ridiculous. It's ridiculous and transparent, but obviously sufficient for those that quote Breitbart / OANN / Gateway Pundit as legit news.
  25. Gap03
    Trump has weaponized the stupidity of the masses, and social media has made it virulent. If the EU authorities can't get shit under control, things are going to get real ugly, real quick in the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/latest-coron

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