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Machinator

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  1. TFB Spring Game | Texpectations: http://texas.thefootballbrainiacs.com/2018/04/tfb-spring-game-week-texpectations/

     

    Guess what? It’s Spring Game Week, y’all! It’s time to discuss some ‘almost football’. Does it seem like it took forever for this year’s spring game to come around? It did to me. I’ve had to seek counseling (only kidding). There will be a lot to see this Saturday evening. There are plenty of spots players are fighting for and between departures and injuries, the guys will be intent on ‘showing out’. It will also be the day fans get their first glimpse of the Tom Herman-Herb Hand offense, something I happen to be very excited about, if you’re wondering. You’ll also see a ‘new’ defense, of sorts, because as personnel changes, so does the unit’s capabilities. Long story short, while it’s only a spring game, there’s plenty of tidbits to help you understand some subtle and maybe not so subtle changes.

    Offense

    Herb Hand is here. He’s kind of a big deal. You’ve read right here at ‘TFB’, about what changes you might see because of Hand’s influence. I won’t go into too much detail, but I’ll share with you a few thoughts.

    Pace – Texas doesn’t have to go fast all the time. What’s more important is urgency and controlling the tempo, up to and including burning rubber pellets and snapping the ball before the defense is set. Don’t forget, even Too Smart Todd had some trouble with tempo last season. Let’s see the offense test Todd’s ability to get his defense aligned.

    Procedure – If you’re also hoping Hand influences the offense more, then you’re looking forward to ‘hurry up huddle’ coupled with quick snaps. Again, it’s all meant to control tempo and challenge defensive alignment and assignment. A spring game Hand-Orlando match-up is worthy of your time.

    Align & Move – You also might see a few more novel alignments and a heavier use of speed motion across formation (especially ‘jet’ motion). On top of that, if a new motion series is built-out, expect the quarterbacks to take some snaps under center, with motion behind it. Whether at high or low tempo, Texas may use it’s speed to the perimeter more often.

    Personnel – Texas has injured players. You may not see Kirk Johnson, Tristan Houston, or Cameron Townsend (recent switch). What you will see are some usual suspects. What to look for at each position will depend somewhat on adopted new scheme. Let’s go position by position.

    Quarterback – Ehlinger is the likely starter, for better or worse. Tom has depended on a more mobile quarterback to bail his scheme out for a long time. Why would he change? After all, he’s not a spread Air Raid guy. Sam’s issues were multiple. He didn’t see plays develop well, he wasn’t as accurate as you’d like (short and long), and when he ran, he put himself at risk for injury far too often. If the offense is to take a big step forward, it will have to be running the football, with Sam’s help. Odds of Sam improving by a good margin as a passer aren’t on his side, but as Han Solo might say, ‘Never tell me the odds!’ The hope for fans, with Hand present, is that the Texas offense will not be dependent on throwing the ball much in 2018. As far as Buechele goes, he’ll need to be constantly ready. Odds are high that Sam gets hurt again. Shane is more than serviceable, but offers other strengths, some that can still be taken advantage of if Hand has his way. The other quarterbacks, it’ll be interesting to see where they are at this Saturday. Don’t be surprised if Rising looks better than Sam at this point last season. Thompson, he’s a guy with the most upside, in my opinion, because he can be developed as a passer and no other quarterback on the roster moves nearly as well as he does. Enough about these guys.

    Big Uglies – If Will’s practice reports are correct, expect an unimpressive bunch of Okafor-Vahe-Shackelford-Rodriguz-Kerstetter. Four of these guys weren’t getting the job done last season, at all. Look for improvement up front. Then you’ll know Hand is worth the money. That said, they have good competition in the trenches, that’s what you should pay attention to the most. Texas will zone block, but what I’d look for if I were you is a a bit more Power and maybe Sweep. Texas should run more gap schemes under Hand and it’s my opinion the Texas offensive linemen are better suited to them.

    Receivers – This also fits in with the pass game. Last season, Texas ran things I liked, things I didn’t. They didn’t build on concepts much. That tended to make the pass game predictable. This may have been due to the revolving door at quarterback. I don’t expect much more complex this season, what you want from the receivers are better routes and better separation. Then, add in options for them to work against leverage. For the most part, most will stem from the screen and quick game, as Hand will want to see a healthy amount of each. That means fierce blocking (no divas). A couple quick concepts I’d like to more are Hitch in the alley and Curl from both inside and outside receivers. Lastly, I got tired of Tom’s baby last season, 3-Level passing, as dividends were low. I’d much rather a more vertical and direct path against deep coverage with Seam, Streak, Dig, and comeback routes, inside and outside, respectively. From there, you can still scheme in Drag from the opposite side and Arrow (flat route) from the third receiver in or the back. If going vertical, routes need to attack quickly, forcing safeties to turn and run right away.

    Backs – I won’t say much here. You saw what Young, Carter, and Porter were capable of last season. While they’ll all need to make good reads (zone and gap schemes), the offensive line will be tasked with creating lanes. I don’t think Kirk Johnson will play, yet. So, not much is changing on this front.

    Punter – Since Tom is in the business of making punters famous, the new guy deserves mention. That’s all.

    Defense

    The 2018 defense will be a very interesting story because of the loss of 43% production (per footballstudyhall.com). That’s quite a bit to replace. The players, Poona Ford, Malik Jefferson, DeShon Elliott, Holton Hill, and Jason Hall all produced. Replacing that production will be a difficult task for Too Smart Todd. How he’ll do it and with what personnel will be veiled somewhat, for now, because of injuries. You may not see Chris Nelson, Gary Johnson, Edwin Freeman, Montrell Estell, Josh Thompson, Anthony Cook, and Davante Davis. That’s a large part of the depth chart. On the other hand, other players will see more time, especially second and first year players trying to earn spots on the ‘two-deep’. Exactly how Todd patches up the holes will be interesting and because of the spring game setting and current injuries, it will be difficult to tell what the plan is going forward. On another note, the replacements and injuries are why I’m not paying attention to recent reports of the offense gaining the upper hand more often in practices. Right now, especially, that matters little.

    Alignment & Assignment – Typically, spring ball is vanilla, you don’t often see a lot of variety on either side of the ball. That said, each side will be put through its paces, likely challenging each other with pace and physicality. It’s not likely Todd will call anything complicated beyond Cover Four, Cover 1, and Cover 2. The blitzes will likely be few as well. That doesn’t mean either side shouldn’t be effective. After all, keeping and taking away initiative, space, or angles isn’t complicated, and both sides will fight to keep all three on their side no matter how vanilla the schemes are. You still want to see the defense quickly align and hitting their proper gaps in run defense and playing zone and man principles well against the pass. Be consistent.

    The Backbone – If you think replacing Ford, Malik, and Elliott will be easy, you haven’t been watching football. It seems defenses are more sensitive to losses in production than offenses. Making tackles at linebacker and defensive back, along with defending the pass are critical, especially in the Big 12, where offenses look to exploit one-on-one match-ups on a constant basis via spread football. Again, I don’t envy Orlando this season. He was blessed with a mature depth chart last season, one that experienced struggle the 2 years prior and a steady increase in production. Will this season’s depth chart yield results similar to last season’s? My quick answer is, no. This is why it’s critical the offense improves. I suspect the drop-off in defense will require a few more points per game on average. It doesn’t seem like much, but again, I press you. How close were the close games last season? That was because the defense was championship caliber. Will it be next year? The jury is out.

    Filling Holes – Replacing the aforementioned players will be tough, especially Jefferson and Elliott. We’ll have to wait until the depth chart solidifies in late August, but I’ll share with you some ideas, some familiar. Ford’s spot concerns me the least because Texas has bodies to attack single gaps up front. Expect Omenihu, Nelson, and Hager to lead the charge this Fall. That is a good group. Where things get interesting is at linebacker. For now, I like that Todd is testing Malcolm Roach at the ‘Rover’ spot. If Orlando chooses, he can scheme the defense more like a 3-3 Stack with ‘Shark’, Roach, and Johnson, weak to strong. That places speed to both sides of Roach while still allowing Roach to plug interior gaps, stunt outside, and chase the flat weak side. Note though, Roach is very athletic for his size and can probably be counted on some to cover underneath and occasionally bracket high, he’s a stud. Moving on, weak safety is of the utmost importance. Orlando counted on Elliott to be an enforcer in coverage and a physical presence against the run. Who can fill that role? He’ll be missed and Orlando will be tasked with approximating that role. What I’d like to see is PJ Locke focus on that position. Lock has good size and speed and may have outgrown the Nickel spot. If he can fill that role, it’s likely Todd can rest easier knowing there’s a player he can trust there. Time will tell. Remember, the closer to the ball, the more experience you want. The weak safety position should be intimate with the ball. Experience is warranted.

    Sub-Package – Orlando will likely stick to Nickel and Dime. In that case, Bonney is the likely the sixth defensive back. He’s limited athletically, but also nails assignments. He’s also been through hell in his time in the program. I think Bonney can be an asset there. Against more physical run-heavy teams, Orlando may need a heavier hitter. This remains a mystery. If you’re like me, you’re hoping Chris Brown can play that role. He plays like a linebacker and moves like a safety. He only needs to add consistency in technique and assignment. After that, he’s set. Beyond that, I think freshmen will need to be looked at, not a good thing, as the defense will be forced to further simplify.

    That’s a lot of words. That’s that I tried to keep it short. It reflects my current thoughts on the program and what you might expect from the spring game. Overall, I’m positive heading into 2018. It’s just that I’m the type that has to see it first. The spring game will yield little with regard to projecting 2018, because of the current personnel, you and I will need to wait impatiently for the season to begin. 

  2. 28 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

    I watched Ohio State's Spring game and Tater was not exactly Joe Montana.  

    Sure, but Ohio State has a lot less to prove given that they've been regularly competing for championships in the past 5 years and their offensive numbers completely outclass ours, even in their Tim Beck years.

  3. 32 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

    i dont understand what you are saying but if you are saying that the recruiting industry doesnt regularly overreact when a recruit has a good visit then i dont know what to tell you. they get it wrong all of the time. 

    I suppose you're right, given what just transpired with Leal.

    But even going off your info and what GW has said himself, if his decision comes down to our offense showing promise during the spring game, that still sounds like a tall order given the various obstacles they're going up against this Saturday. We shall see.

  4. If Wilson commits based on what he sees from a vanilla offense featuring a hodge-podge of 1s and 2s plus a makeshift offensive line on a possibly rainy night with a wet field, he will have either bamboozled nearly the entire recruiting industry, or Tim Beck will have called the game of his life.

  5. 2 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

    I posted it in the football thread, but that Center from tOSU who's been mentioned as a grad transfer candidate is transferring.

    Is it known for sure that he's set to graduate from Ohio State? It wasn't immediately clear to me.

  6. 2 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

    Everything I have heard, parents, teammates, Texas coaches, all believe that Wilson has not made up his mind at this point. I would not take Higgins' comment over Wilson's parents, his best friends or the Texas coaches. That said, OSU definitely made a strong pitch and became a viable option. Baldwin played a big role in that discussion. I stand by my statement that if Texas gives him a reason to commit, he will be a Longhorn. His parents want him at Texas. He wants to be part of the group that brings Texas back. I trust Herman, Naivar, Washington, Carrington, and Huff will do what it takes to get him in burnt orange.

     

    As for Leal, he definitely was not the best DLineman LT played against last season. Ojomo was the best LT played all season. But Leal had the highest ceiling due to his size, frame and overall ability to move so well for a guy that big. Leal took a lot of plays off and got winded pretty quickly into both games. He was singled most of both games by LT's right tackle who will be playing at Midwestern State in the Fall. Although, LT did chip him with a back and TE at times. So while he was the best prospect from a size, speed, movement perspective, he wasnt as disruptive or as effective as Ojomo. If I had to take one or the other, it would be Leal based on his ceiling.

    Seems like you get less confident with every post...

    I kid. Appreciate the info.

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