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camel at sea

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Everything posted by camel at sea

  1. Considering Trev Alberts is the AD, that seems unlikely. They really just need to go find someone who has had success recruiting and coaching in that part of the country. Scott Frost's coaching background was Oregon and Florida. Bo was an Ohio guy and won at NU consistently. Callahan was a west coast / NFL guy and was a disaster. Mike Riley was a west coast guy and was a disaster. Someone from the Iowa / ND State / Wisconsin / Ohio State tree makes sense. They've got more financial resources than any other program in the Big West or the old Big 12 North. They *should* be a better version of Iowa or Wisconsin if they could make a good hire.
  2. If Arizona can snag 1) $10M more per year, and 2) a *much* better home for their basketball program, I don't know why they wouldn't jump at that. I'm not sure which of the other "Four Corners" schools blinks first to go with them, though. Colorado probably *should* but their academic side and donors seems pretty reluctant.
  3. Apparently it's expandable to 55K though. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timnewcomb/2022/08/29/san-diego-state-opening-true-home-field-advantage-at-new-snapdragon-stadium/?sh=600d656a21ca I was surprised to learn that they averaged 11K+ in men's basketball last year.
  4. Yeah... it's all part of the conversation. Scaling back a home and home, for 25 years, to a home/away/neutral site thing for ten years is still a win for them. Maybe not a big enough win, or not something UT wants to do. But I'd guess that they'll talk about it.
  5. Yeah. An argument for a Tech series is that they'd presumably be on board with "high profile" neutral site games in Arlington, Houston, San Antonio, etc. UT can get games in front of its alums in those places without playing UH or TCU. It's a big win for Tech b/c the series would elevate their brand and the neutral site games would give them something else to sell on recruiting visits. Texas would need to get enough money knocked off its buyout and a more reasonable end point to the series than a quarter century from now.
  6. This whole things feels like part of the negotiation for leaving early. It's probably coming back up now b/c the Big 12 wants to sell "Texas vs. Tech" during their re-negotiation with ESPN/FOX and the Big 12 is pressing Tech on locking that down. The Big 12 / Tech take their extra money and cooperate with Texas leaving early. They'll ask for a 25 year agreement, Texas eventually counters with an offer for a 10 year agreement, and insists that 4 of those games are neutral site games. Tech accepts. Texas leaves a year or two early and the buyout is knocked down $____M . Yormark should probably be pushing everyone in the Big 12 who can arrange it to set up a long-term series with an SEC school. It would elevate the quality of the inventory he can take to a media buyer, it would be good for league branding, and the SEC side might have some incentive to nudge members to accept (since they'd get UT and OU a couple years early.) Mizzou-Kansas makes sense Oklahoma - OK St makes sense Texas / A&M / Arky could rotate through Tech / Baylor / TCU or they could each pair up with one of them.
  7. I think if they and/or the Big 12 find a partner to come with them, they'll be the first shoe to drop. They're the most in danger of being left out altogether if they are complacent AND their fans would embrace the move more enthusiastically than any other potential addition from the PAC due to the massive basketball upgrade. If Yormark can't find a PAC partner for Arizona, he should go get SDSU to come with them. Together, those two give the Big 12 two more late window schools for football, two more good basketball and football fits, a flag in a new Big TV market, a flag in a good recruiting footprint, and it would simultaneously force the PAC to add one while taking their preferred G5 addition off the board.
  8. It's interesting that he lists basketball with, and in front of, football. From a branding standpoint, basketball is where the Big 12 is going to have the most conference shine. So... the Big 12 will probably find good "fits" by making sure their adds really value hoops. With that in mind, it reads very much like he's talking about Arizona. I think Boise and SDSU kind of fit the criteria fairly well as G5 adds. Utah should be a fit but I don't know that their fans / admins want to be in the Big 12. Same with ASU and Colorado. Some of those three might end up in the Big 12, as a last resort, but if you're on the Big 12 side of it, you probably prefer the partner who really wants to join you.
  9. Yeah. Competitively this is true. I think you can argue that Michigan, Penn State, and SC all have the potential to be a clear cut above everyone in the new Big 12... but none of them have been at that level in a long while. Michigan might be trending there but hasn't proven it yet. Ohio State is the only Big Ten squad that has. The difference between the two conferences, other than Ohio State's on-the-field play, is that the Big 10's second tier has much larger fanbases and TV appeal.
  10. TCU: 2017 - @ Arkansas (back half of a home and home) 2018 - Ohio St 2019 - @Purdue (return home game scheduled for 2030) 2020 - (covid year) 2021 - Cal (can't find the return game so maybe it's a one-off) 2022 - @Colorado (return game is next year) Baylor: 2017: @Duke 2018: Duke 2021: BYU 2022: @BYU *Note: Free riders from Waco played in NY6 games twice in this span of time, and won the league last year. They also won a men's basketball national title. Kansas State: 2017: @Vandy 2018: Mississippi St 2019: @Mississippi St 2021: Stanford (return game from 2016 - moved to NFL stadium for $$) 2022: Missouri
  11. Yeah. UT and OU join the SEC early. Disney gets its "After Dark" games via the Big 12 after the Four Corners move. FOX has better leverage with the remaining PAC invitees it wants as their state governments will suddenly be more cooperative and desperate. Colorado has to publicly deny that they think of the Big 12 as a juco league. One thing I'm curious about is whether someone else gets involved to help carry the Big 12's Tier 1 inventory. The "game of the week" needs to go somewhere and I'm not sure where it might land at either FOX or Disney.
  12. I'm completely unconvinced that UNC and UVA will pay for themselves in the B1G, or come close, in ten years when cable is dead. Disney can just hold onto the ACC GOR and run out the clock on the cable box era and on the B1G. If we see a big shakeup in the way that revenue is distributed for the men's basketball tourney, then maybe that changes. But that change has to be done in a way wherein the increased P5 tourney revenue is attached to individual big brands, and not to the tourney itself.
  13. Based on their current recruiting footprint and resources, Nebraska should be able to build the exact same type of team/program that exists at Wisconsin and Iowa. The problem for them is that they'll fire any coach who builds that type of program because 9 wins a year isn't enough in Lincoln.
  14. They want Bo Pelini back? The biggest thing they had going for them was the division setup. NU has more resources than the other West schools (if they can ever figure out how to use them) and none of the West schools have a good recruiting footprint. If they could just start getting to B1G title games, it would have elevated their brand nationally "Is Nebraska back?!", and they could maybe hope to be a better version of Wisconsin over the long haul. Once they move on from division play, though, they've really got nothing.
  15. Obviously the recruits still have to put pen to paper... but it appears that Oklahoma's new staff is an upgrade on the recruiting trail.
  16. Yeah. The discussion keeps veering off course though because one person will be talking about a breakaway that doesn't include USA... and then another will equate that with decreasing the top tier down to under 50 programs and leaving out ISU, Tech, or Oklahoma State. Those are not the same type of cuts.
  17. I'm not convinced that it won't be four conference under two primary corporate umbrellas (FOX and Disney.) The big issue with the B1G in going beyond 20 members is that it likely requires cable boxes to fund it, or Notre Dame, to make the money work. The cable boxes are going away and ND can just say no. The ACC schools with enough value to make that a close call for the B1G, without the Irish, would all probably rather be in the SEC than in the Big Ten. In 2032, with cable on its last legs, can the Big Ten make expansion beyond 20 work if 1) ND says no, and 2) the SEC preemptively adds FSU, Miami, Clemson, and VaTech? I don't think they can. Would ND continue to be part of the ACC, as an indy, under those circumstances? Probably. It's still a great academic, geographic, and Olympic sports fit. Football is probably still palatable even with those four all gone.
  18. A clear path doesn't have to be a realistic path. Those are two different things. The Cincinnati Bearcats played in the CFP last year. Their path was clear, even if winning the whole thing once they got there was unrealistic. If you kick those mid tier schools to to the curb, and they don't have even an unrealistic path, why would their fans continue to watch? Fans of those type of schools comprise a significant percentage of the "casual" fans. Put this idea in another area: Creighton basketball draws 17K for home games. Those are serious CBB fans who watch other big games when said games are on. Are they ever going to win a natty at Creighton? Probably not. But they have a clear path via the tourney. Don't give them access to the NCAA tourney and their fans lose interest. The sport loses some of its "casual" fans. Cut too many fanbases like that out of the process and it's death by many cuts. The TV side gets more of the big brand on big brand games by moving the big brands into the B1G and SEC, expanding the playoff, etc. None of that has to mean eliminating the 1-2M viewer games (viewer numbers which are also hard to achieve otherwise) by cutting the B12/PAC/ACC out of the top tier.
  19. Let's game this out: B1G (20), thus B12 (16) But Disney's hold on the ACC gets a lot stronger. Getting the money to work out, in the B1G, will be difficult at 20+ member schools... especially if Disney uses the ACC GOR to run out the clock on the cable box era.
  20. That data says Syracuse has a Top 15 fanbase. It's garbage.
  21. I wonder what, if anything, that Disney might be able to offer the Irish to keep them under their own umbrella. The Big Ten deal will be tough to pass up. I also wonder what NBC does if the Irish join the Big Ten. Would they want a Saturday double-header? Those reports of wanting "shoulder programming" for an independent Notre Dame doesn't preclude a desire for shoulder programming for a Big Ten game of the week.
  22. I think the Big Ten has a fairly elaborate (blogs, message board posters, twitter, etc.) online PR/narrative steering operation. Flug is definitely part of that in some way.
  23. It'll be interesting to see what direction the Big Ten goes in getting to 20 if they land the Irish. I assume there would be more western additions but that's probably more complicated than it seems. If you add Stanford, then there's a ton of pressure (academic, political, logistical, new member preference, etc.) to also add Cal. They might also want to add a team from the southeast, too.
  24. I can't see any way - whether it's an 8 game schedule or a 9 game schedule - that Bama won't play both Tennessee and Auburn annually, that Auburn won't play both Bama and UGA, etc. There's too many schools with multiple rivalries for the SEC to adopt the 7+1 model (however clean the math with that might be.)
  25. It's always funny to hear anyone talk about OU (the football program at least) being too poor for something. Oklahoma is pretty consistently Top 10 in AD revenue, has plenty of deep pocketed BMDs, always pays its coaching staff elite money, etc. When Venables got hired, Castiglione hired him a small army of off-the-field staff (SOUL mission, analysts, etc.) I'm not sure which SEC school they should be scared of going forward. Outside of Texas and A&M, who is going to be outspending Oklahoma?
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