camel at sea

It's pretty bizarre that these media guys continue to pretend that TV wouldn't continue getting their late night kicks if the Big 12 raided the Four Corners. They'd just have those late kicks tacked onto a conference that is stronger during the rest of the day, too.

This is Navigate's Power 5 Payout projections from March 2022, and it factors in the Longhorns and Sooners changing conferences: https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conference-payout-estimates/ The PAC 12 (w/ SC and UCLA) were only barely ahead of the new Big 12. Now the PAC media apologists (most of them shared and commented on this Navigate data a few months ago) are proclaiming loudly that losing SC and UCLA isn't going to matter that much? How does that work? SC + UCLA can take the Big Ten to new financial riches but losing them has no impact on the PAC? Something doesn't add up.

Media partner: We need someone to kick-off late at night. Unfortunately, the PAC is our only option. Big 12: We'll do it. BYU is already in a good time zone for that. We can sell the fanbases in Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, etc., to be on board with "Big 12 After Dark" once a year, each. We'll get you the late kickoffs you need. We're open to adding Boise if it helps.

I can remember when Mandel used to be somewhat tolerable. He's been atrocious at the Athletic. But yeah... it's looking like the PAC is toast.

The article from Dodd upthread talked about having games around ND's game and getting said games from the Big 12.

If the American could be counted on to have a few teams at the top, in the AP top 25, the new Big 12 will be no different. The 2005-2011 Big East usually had ranked teams, too. The schools with the deep NIL pockets already had deep bagman pockets. The schools who win by developing high 3 star guys are going to continue signing high 3 star guys. This isn't going to change as much as people think. Either way, if you're playing a Big 12 schedule and finish 10-2, you're probably in the Top 25. If you're playing an SEC schedule and finish 7-5, you're probably not ranked.

11:00 a.m. #11 Baylor @ #17 Oklahoma State 3:00 p.m. North Carolina @ #7 Notre Dame 7:00 p.m. Arizona State @ #22 BYU The Big 12 benefits on both ends of that with ND fans catching the end of the first Big 12 game and maybe staying on the same channel to watch the night cap. The ND game gets the TV carry-over from the Big 12 game of the week that led into it. From NBC's side of it, can they feel pretty confident that the new Big 12 will usually have at least a few teams ranked in the poll each week? Probably.

I'd imagine it's a combo of that and also that ND's game will be more valuable if it has a quality P5 lead-in / follow-up. It's probably a struggle to get people to flip the channel over to NBC (or the Peacock app) but more probably do it if in addition to ND vs. UNC, they also get #23 Oklahoma State vs. #14 Baylor as the 11 a.m. lead in, followed by #18 Utah hosting TCU in the night cap. Training the public to channel crawl / app hop is a real thing. You've got to provide as much incentive as possible. If rising tides lift all boats, then NBC needs to acquire a tide for their ND boat to rise on.

Yeah. I think "shoulder programming" refers to the TV windows on either side of (before and after) the ND game. That would be an awesome outcome for the Big 12. If NBC were willing to pick up the league's tier 3 inventory and park it on Peacock, then even better. Notre Dame might only be worth $75M to NBC if they have those shoulder games around them to help secure the eyeballs/revenue to pay for them.

CBS lost the SEC because they weren't willing to pay market value. I'm not sure that they won't run into the same issue with the Big 10 which doesn't really *need* the exposure, either, unlike the Big 12. Personally I'd like to see CBS in Stillwater, Provo, Morgantown, etc. I think it'd be good for college football to keep positive momentum for those programs.

The Big 12 on CBS is a win-win for both sides. CBS gets a good product that they don't have to pay a ton for, and a partner that will be flexible about CBS's other TV obligations. CBS would also get a bigger share of arguably the best CBB conference in the country - which would be a good lead in for the March Madness tourney they host on their network. The Big 12 gets a ton of positive exposure and promotion.

OSU can get a big name on the OOC slate. They've had Georgia when BPS opened and had the one game with Florida State you mentioned (when the Noles were elite.) Oregon, Nebraska, and Bama are on the future OSU schedule home/away. The problem for most of the last decade has been that Gundy didn't want those types of games on the OOC slate and that most of the Big 12 shared his scheduling philosophy. Should be a different story in the future, though. OSU is stepping up. WVU always schedules tough and it looks like Baylor is stepping way up going forward, too.

I understand the appeal of a partnership with the ACC. I just don't see how it makes the PAC financially competitive The ACC raiding the PAC, growing its network, improving its Tier 1 inventory? That makes some sense for the ACC. But once you include the rest of the PAC, too, then it's all way too diluted. How is that adding value to either side? A "partnership" with the Big 12 is the same thing, except that the PAC presidents would despise their partners.

Recruiting rankings aren't perfect but they're more than clickbait. They consistently tell us that Bama, Georgia, and Ohio State out-recruit everyone else and the results back that up. You can also sort classes based on player average, too. The problem with recruiting, at a place like Texas, Miami, SC, etc., is that when you sell the location, and all the things there that have nothing to do with football, as a part of your recruiting pitch, you tend to self-select the recruits who have interests other than football. Getting those types of guys to put in the work is more difficult due to all the enticements you sold them on. When people talk about a "culture problem" this is the root of it. It's harder to find a coach who excels in this environment.

OU playing Notre Dame, Florida State, and Ohio State, home and home, is not the same as someone else scheduling Arizona, Cal, Mississippi State, or Boise to fill the P5 conference obligation.

Ribbing OSU fans as "little brother" is not the same thing as hatred. OU fans wouldn't do it so much if the OSU die-hard didn't react the way that they do. The OSU die-hards seem to struggle with that (which just reinforces the whole "brothers" metaphor. But the proof of that lack of hate is the large percentage of OU fans who watch OSU games when the Pokes are good, the fact the two admins get along, etc. It's not a UT/A&M dynamic or a Bama/Auburn dynamic. Most Okies have an ingrained inferiority complex / chip on their shoulder, so they support anything happening in the state that is successful or sheds a positive light locally.

I laid out the reasons against Houston to make the point that the TV side and the people who count the beans in the Big 12 conference office didn't care about those reasons. If the Big 12 is being prodded to expand by a TV partner, and it gets down to Plan D and G5 schools, then the bean counters and the TV side are going to care 1) are you competitive, 2) how big is your AD budget (i.e. will you continue to be competitive if you get promoted), 3) will games against you do well for us on TV? Whether people like it or not, SMU has pretty good answers for all three of those points. Someone else might have better answers but the Ponies would be in the conversation.

I live in Oklahoma and have lived in Oklahoma for 40+ years. There isn't much hate on either side and never has been. To the extent it exists, the vast majority of it is with the OSU die-hards, not the other way around. OU fans don't care about OSU enough to hate them. It's truly a big brother / little brother dynamic. The big brother gives little brother a hard time but when push comes to shove, usually is supportive. Most Okies who identify as OU-first cheered for Oklahoma State (non-ironically) when Big Country led the Pokes into the Final Four. Most OU fans cheered for Gary Ward's baseball teams in the CWS back in the day. Most OU fans cheered for Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, etc., when the Pokes weren't playing OU. In the internet era, the OU die-hards condescend to the OSU die-hards online, primarily because of how the OSU die-hards react to it. The internet dynamic isn't very reflective of reality, though. OSU's TV rating are great in Oklahoma and that has a lot to do with the "we cheer for both schools" folks within the state.

The SMU argument you're making used to be the Houston argument. SMU's AD budget is large for a G5 school. They're competitive and they've now been that way under multiple coaches (Jones, Morris, Dykes.) SMU vs [Tech/TCU/Baylor/Houston] and probably OSU are a guarantee to do well on TV sets in Texas. SMU represents a recruiting exposure trip for everyone in the league. SMU's logo is more recognizable than most in the G5. They also have a good academic reputation. I'm not saying that they'll ever get in, but as long as the Big 12 is talking to G5s for expansion to 14 or more, they're going to factor heavily into the discussion. NDSU (just to use your example) is not guaranteed to transition to the FBS well, let alone the P5. They have no recruiting base. Their stadium capacity is under 20K. They have no large local TV market. Etc.

No one may ever know the reality of that situation, but it never made any sense that a league which is home to East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa, would have a prayer of raiding even a depleted Big 12. That always struck me as wishful thinking coming from the AAC side.

I don't think Disney wants Texas or OU in the SEC until the CBS deal expires at the end of the '23 season. The timeline on the move just feels drawn out because aggy tried to scuttle everything by making it public a year or more before it was supposed to be made public.

SMU should be about Plan D for the Big 12. They'd deliver regional TV audiences and I think their donors would be all-in if given an opportunity. Their AD budget is already good for a G5 program. It just seems like the Big 12 has better options. What I am curious about though is the constant drum beat in the Big 12, since the AAC schools were announced, for even more expansion. Those "the Big 12 might not be done..." articles started right away. FOX is almost certainly the media partner the Big 12 consulted with when they did expansion. It could be that FOX wants the Big 12 to be larger, whether that's with PAC options or not.

Gundy has been the HC there for 17 years, he's unquestionably the best HC in OK State history, he's probably going to end up in the CFB HoF, and he has three wins against Oklahoma. Outside of a vocal minority of Okies who are die-hard Pokes, there's very little actual hatred in Bedlam. If they go a while without playing, most of the state of Oklahoma will cheer for both schools whenever they are doing well - as was the case for most of their respective histories. The big difference between the two places is that OU has had a lot more to cheer for.

It's been an almost automatic loss for Gundy for most of his life. With the lane open now to win conference titles and make an expanded playoff, I understand not wanting to play it. Hopefully though the series resumes once things settle down.

Papa John Schnatter and Fred Smith aren't Phil Knight (neither are close to his net worth financially or with respect to sports media/industry clout.) It's not just about Oregon's antics. It's about leveraging Nike. How much is he willing to do that? I don't know what outcome he's willing to accept. Maybe ultimately he's fine with some kind of "best of the PAC/B12" scenario for the Ducks. But if not... there's probably no one individual capable of throwing a bigger monkey wrench into the conventional wisdom on this topic than Phil Knight.