camel at sea

It doesn't make any sense to jump into a worse situation (Big 12 to vulnerable PAC 10) because your own league *might* lose its eastern flank... someday. And even if the new Big 12 loses its eastern flank to a gutted ACC, that means that it lost 2 of its 3 weakest members with respect to value and it also lost its travel headaches. So... it's still a 2nd tier league (well above the G5) and in just as good a spot as the refurbished ACC and the PAC. The Big 12 could add one and keep rolling along at ten teams. Who would the one be? Memphis has good athletics value. They could look west at Boise if they're still available. Maybe they pick up Air Force (which has a relatively good national fanbase) as #10. No reason to panic. The more likely scenario if the ACC gets gutted, though, is that Louisville probably becomes available to plug into the Big 12's eastern wing. If the Big 12 is lucky, then maybe the Canes do too.

I don't think OSU gets left out of the eventual breakaway from the NCAA. The brand/facilities/recent success/fan support justify inclusion. At some point in the future, I think all of college football's top level will be under one governing umbrella, cashing similarly sized media rights checks, and the constant conference shuffling will stop. But if we get a decade of an interim period, with a couple of super conferences, and a couple of "middle class" conferences, then OSU might be on the outside for a while. Hopefully if that happens, the interim period includes an expanded playoff.

This is the kind of story that leaks to motivate UW to either get itself freed from WSU or risk permanent exile.

There's a difference between "looks like" and "is." You've included a lot of absolute dead weight in this group. WSU is a MWC who has been cashing P5 paychecks for decades. Oregon State is only slightly better than that Cal and Stanford have good names and no fan support. Those Big 12 schools have more valuable peers where they are (outside of UW and Oregon) and as was mentioned, both of those two want to leave very badly.

Not sure why anyone in the Big 12 would be interested in joining the PAC, knowing full well that Washington and Oregon want out. PAC expansion probably has to be schools like SDSU and Boise, I'd think.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of KU BMDs driving their bus into a ditch. But yeah, I agree, that move makes zero sense. KU, KSU, ISU, OSU, Cincy, Baylor, Houston... that's a *really* good basketball conference. It's arguably the best in the country. Factor in the chance to add Arizona to that mix... KU leaving for the Big East would be extraordinarily dumb.

Washington is tethered to Wazzu (at least that was true the last I read about it.) Oregon will want UDub in tow and UDub needs the PAC to be wounded before they can get the state legislature to let them split from little brother.

The PAC can't go on offense. Nobody in the Big 12 will bite on an offer from them until Oregon and Washington's fate are settled. The Big 12 is much more likely to be the one doing the raiding when this shakes out.

I don't think 64 will be the final number. 72 probably works fine, too. The leagues can breakaway from the NCAA, negotiate media rights collectively, and then put together divisions, schedules, and a playoff that actually makes sense.

I think the 2 super leagues will be the transition stage before the full NCAA breakaway and reshuffle. With a breakaway, you could appoint a commissioner to negotiate for the entire group of 72 schools (or whatever the number ends up being.) Realignment wouldn't need to happen anymore at that point, as conferences aren't competing financially anymore, and you could do common sense things like arrange the divisions to be logical and fan-friendly, set up a playoff that makes sense, etc.

Washington is legislatively tethered to Washington State. This will create the impetus to free the Huskies. As soon as that's done, I'd bet UW and Oregon are in the Big Ten. Colorado and Kansas are the most likely to round out to 20. The Big 12 minus Kansas is much stronger than the PAC at that point and they raid Arizona, ASU, Utah, maybe others. Stanford and Cal go to the Ivy model.

If UCLA were tethered, I don't think things would be this far down the road. The interesting thing to me is whether the Big Ten stops at taking two or not. The Big 12 could probably make a real run at Arizona, Utah, etc., now, too. Maybe SDSU gets a look as a tagalong.

The Big 12 will need someone who can sell their inventory, especially if the bridge with Disney is burned. This guy's track record is pretty positive on that front and his basketball background couldn't have hurt (given that the new Big 12 can still make a strong case for being the top conference in that sport.) I think the branding strategy will be a big challenge and this guy seems to have a background that fits on that front, too.

What are the dominoes from that game... NU wins, plays in a BCS game, gets some recruiting momentum. Thin-skinned petty Tom Osborne does not decide that NU should leave the Big 12, Pelini is still winning 9 or 10 games per year in Lincoln annually (alternatively he was forced out some years later due to a scandal) Missouri gets the Big Ten's 12th spot. When A&M leaves, the SEC ends up with WVU as #14. Big 12 never goes fishing for Big East schools, so ACC never preemptively adds low-value Pitt or Syracuse, destabilizing the Big East. TCU never gets a Big 12 invite and ends up in the Big East as originally planned. Ten team Big 12 - with NU instead of WVU - makes more money per team, gets along better in the boardroom, provides a better home football slate to Texas and especially OU fans/donors, and holds together. The irony of NU leaving was that the round robin format, in the Big 12, was their ideal situation.

My guess is that a hefty number of New Yorkers, forced to choose, are going to pick a lot of squads (Notre Dame, Michigan, Penn State, Army/Navy, etc.) before they get down to Syracuse but I get your point.

Better one: Syracuse with a Top 15 fanbase (bigger than Auburn, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Nebraska...) If your data is producing results like that, then you need to start over. Nobody should take any part of it seriously. Here he is defending the idea that Cuse has more fans than Oklahoma:

I think he's FOS. That said, the SEC inked a new deal with Disney for their Tier 1 rights seven months before the UT/OU stuff got leaked. It's entirely possible that the Big Ten announces a deal before they announce expansion. The new Big Ten deal might be the political justification for the PAC schools to make the move.

Yeah. You can throw that whole thing in the trash once you see that it says Oregon has a larger fanbase than Alabama.

Personally, I don't think it's a good idea for 30-40 schools to split off officially. The people who push that idea have the idea that the casual fans will keep watching, no matter what, but I'm not that sure. A lot of the casuals are fans of schools who actually get to be in the top tier but don't ever win anything in the top tier. What incentive do fans of the schools who get excluded from the premier league have to watch CFB if their school isn't at the highest level anymore? It makes a lot more sense to me for there to be unofficial tiers. The SEC and Big Ten can be the only two leagues with the financial resources to win titles, while still giving schools in the Big 12, PAC, and ACC the illusion of opportunity. It's not that different than how the P5 treats the G5 now. Every so often a team from one of those weaker leagues will get close enough to give hope to all the others. That will keep their fans turning out, investing in their programs, etc.

Yeah. The new Big 12 + Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and the Buffs would be pretty entertaining.

The best possible thing that could happen for BYU or UCF, from a national perception standpoint, would be to play and beat Texas and/or OU on their way out the door. In turn, that's good for the Big 12 and the R8. Add to that, if the new schools come in and play really well right out of the gate, having Texas and OU around gives the national media a measuring stick to use in deciding whether the new schools are actually good or whether the R8 are bad. If Cincinnati plays OU tough, then the new schools are going to get an "actually good" narrative from the media. If Cincinnati's biggest name opponent in the Big 12 is Baylor, and they beat Baylor, then the media narrative turns hard against the R8.

Yeah. FOX needs SC to be good and FOX is also pissed at OU for taking public shots at their "Big Noon" format. Klatt's always been an OU fan, but even he predicted a week or two ago that OU's 22 squad was going to be its worst team since Stoops arrived. The whole thing is really unprofessional. It's one thing if a guy like Finebaum or Clay Travis have absurd or biased takes but those types of guys aren't supposed to. It'll be interesting to see how Riley does at SC. If Caleb Williams progresses, they *should* be elite on offense and that will give them a chance to win the PAC. But it's hard to overlook how the QB play for Riley has gotten worse year after year despite the guys playing for him being highly talented. Some of that is that defenses caught up with him schematically. But I think some of it is coaching (or lack of that.)

Riley's piece with Dennis Dodd the other day was maybe the 4th "here is why I left Oklahoma" article his PR team has pushed out since the move. He had something similar in The Player's Tribune at the end of April. At the current pace he'll put out another article in mid-July. The reason he keeps doing this is that he's getting killed on the recruiting trail by other coaching staffs over the narrative that he ran away from SEC competition. He's getting killed over that b/c it's pretty plainly true. Guys like Barnett keep staking shots at OU fans because they're good for clicks.

Yeah. Clear the runway for Baylor, OSU, Cincy, Houston, etc., to win conference football titles, and I think that league is going to look like a bunch of cats in a sack. It'll be extremely competitive and really fun. It's going to continue to be nationally elite in men's basketball, too, for whatever that's worth. People make a lot of the recruiting thing, with NIL, but I don't see it hurting the new Big 12 all that much. Those programs aren't winning with Top 25 classes anyway. They're built on culture, evaluation, development, etc., and I think they'll continue signing high 3 star kids and turning them into really good players. The new Big 12 is made to weather the realignment change pretty well.

Clemson shares a league with Florida State and Miami, who have about 8 national titles since the 80s, and they would still crawl over broken glass to get an SEC invite. In addition to Purdue, Ohio State also shares a league with Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa - all of whom would be the top program, with respect to national perception, if they were in the new Big 12. If Purdue had the 2nd or 3rd best program in the Big Ten, Ohio State would leave.