The number one reason we lost this game was because we did not go for it on 4th and 11 or whatever with a minute something left in the first half at their 40.
You can't afford to make such coaching mistakes in games like this. This was an unbelievably good situation to go for it. Number one, we are actually good at that situation with LJH and CJ and Sam. I think it is a 50% chance of converting. But to really understand why it is a must go for it situation is to realize the reward you get for making it. Not only do you get a chance to score a field goal or more likely a touchdown the way our offense is against their defense, but you keep OU from having a chance to score at the end of the half. The fact that they get the ball first in the second half even makes it more important to keep them from scoring. So this wasn't your normal go for it on 4th down and maybe we can score situation. This was a 2-score decision. This was giving us a scoring chance near the red zone and taking away a scoring chance from OU. This was frickin huge. This was us possibly going into halftime up 21-10 versus OU winning 20-14. I mean this was huge.
The reason you would not go for it is because the risk is too big (even though the reward as I discussed is so high). But the risk really is only giving OU like 20 extra yards of field position. In this day and age, with over a minute left on the clock, with their type offense, 20 yards is nothing. That is one 20 yard pass. You are not giving them an appreciably greater chance of scoring by giving the ball at the 40 as opposed as the 20, especially with their offense. If you are playing Iowa State, then yes, there is a greater chance they score from the 40 than the 20.
But having said all that, I get why Herman did not go for it. This is a high pressure job with all of us on every decision. The old school thinking is you punt on 4th and 11. Imagine he went for it and didn't make it and OU goes down and scores a TD. He would catch so much shit even though it was 100% the correct decision. There would have been no way for us to know that OU would have scored the TD even if he punted. But to be a great coach, he needs to get past doing the "safe" thing for the optics for our fans. Especially when the "safe" thing when you really look at risk and reward is really the riskiest thing you can do. Giving OU the ball with over a minute on the clock is just a risk you don't want to take if you don't have to.