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texastough

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Everything posted by texastough

  1. Without looking into it at all, my first guess is that if there is no issue/dispute as to privilege for those 100 documents, and thats all DOJ really wants, it would moot the request for a special master
  2. Aww turn that frown upside down. Ukraine is on the counteroffensive, they are currently kicking ass and taking names
  3. Kickass interview with a Ukrainian warrior, lots of details about battles early in the war https://wartranslated.com/interview-with-afu-lieutenant-colonel-pavlo-rozlach/
  4. While there may not be much news from the front right now, Ukraine is still reporting Russian casualty numbers and there's been a big uptick in the last week. For most of August, the average was 100-200 per day. Since the "counteroffensive" began, here are the numbers: August 29, 350; Aug. 30, 450; Aug. 31, 350, Sept. 1, 450; Sept. 2, 350. Total of 1,950 in 5 days. FWIW
  5. That is a really good piece. Here's an excerpt: If this type of progress is being consistently made by Ukraine (and it is), hollowing out the core of Russian positions in entire sectors, why would Ukraine risk high casualties in a costly wider infantry assault while there are still targets that HIMARS, M777s, drones, and other longer-range weapons can take out at little to no risk, all while the enemy’s morale, numbers, and supply situation weaken? Many of these targets are far behind the front lines, meaning there is now nowhere Russian forces in the region can feel safe, a situation disastrous for morale. Weakening the positions behind the front lines also means that if the main line collapses, much more than just that main line will collapse and it is more likely the whole sector could fall quickly. Instead of weakness or any inability, this methodical, deliberative targeting by Ukraine signals confidence in its ability to continue to damage Russia at times and pacing of its choosing, a mature patience on the part of Ukraine that will yield significant results over time at relatively low cost. Yet plenty of experts and reporters seem puzzled, as massive formations of Ukrainian forces not pouring into Kherson city and forcefully pushing the Russian lines back mean, from their perspective, there must not be any real Ukrainian counteroffensive or that it is stalled. But Ukraine is not basing the timing of its operations to satisfy the impatience of itchy Twitter fingers of reporters and analysts who find it easier to tweet, write, and comment about heavy “action,” and it seems many takes on the war in the south are missing the bigger picture. Contrary to such views, the offensive is very much underway, with Ukraine simply taking a prudent, risk-averse strategy while it can still easily hit Russian targets far behind the front lines. Unlike Russia, Ukraine actually highly values the lives of its soldiers, a major factor in morale, as Ukrainian soldiers can count on their commanders to not throw their lives away carelessly or needlessly, unlike the clear, callous indifference that permeates Russian command (which I have detailed before). And the very nature of the conflict is now defined by Russia’s inability to produce anything but marginally successful advances (if any progress at all) and Ukraine’s purposeful approach to strike Russian targets one-by-one with precision, distance weapons while keeping its own forces as much out of harm’s way as it can where it can. And Ukraine can do all this knowing it is and will be getting more and better weapons and equipment from the West as we well as more well-trained Ukrainian troops from an increasing Western series of training missions.
  6. There's a follow up tweet that lays out the details
  7. What if there are documents showing how fpotus helped plan Jan 6 among everything seized at MAL
  8. Trump can’t appeal any relief granted to him in trial court, but he can appeal denials by the judge. It shouldn’t take a special master long to determine what’s trump property and what’s government property out of what the fbi took
  9. Seems lots of folks, both "experts" and some posters here, are handwringing about a relatively static frontline and basically interpreting that one data point to mean that Ukraine lacks the capability to go on a major offensive and retake significant territory anytime soon. I don't know shit, but that sounds a lot like everyone predicting Ukraine would fall within days when the war began. Some describe the current situation as a stalemate. But is it really a stalemate when Ukraine is continuing to degrade Russian forces at a significantly higher rate than their own losses? HIMARS are wreaking havoc on Russian logistics and command centers. Russia is still trying to mount lots of local offensives, which for the most part are being repelled and in lots of cases with heavy losses. On top of that, the flow of arms to Ukraine is increasing, and fresh troops are being trained to NATO standards. If you are the Ukrainian military, would you prefer to mount a major offensive before or after tens of thousands of trained reinforcements and $3 billion more in arms arrive, and HIMARS finishes destroying its targets? Before or after rubbing out Russian offensives that degrade Russian forces at a 4:1 clip over Ukraine's? To me, Ukraine is simply setting conditions and using the same strategy that took back the north -- destroy logistics and such until Russian cannot effectively defend, much less go on the offensive. If you read the tea leaves, I also think Ukraine has a plan. This is something I've been thinking about since Ukraine announced the southern offensive. At the time, I was asking why on earth Ukraine would announce that? Now I believe it was purposeful disinformation aimed at drawing a lot of Russian forces to Kherson oblast. The immediate effect of that was to take pressure off the Donbas front line, where artillery had just closed the Sieverdonesk pocket. Causing a lot of Russian BTG's to be transferred to Kherson meant that they were in a much more precarious logistical position, not only across a major river but also as far from Russian resupply as anywhere on the frontline. But if the announcement of the southern counteroffensive was a purposeful headfake, I don't believe it was done only to take pressure off the Donbas frontlines. Ukraine knows that it needs to make some advances soon to maintain support for the war. I think it was because the main counteroffensive will begin elsewhere. Today the Mayor of Melitopol tweeted that residents should evacuate before winter, purportedly due to lack of gas for heat. I'm going to make another bold prediction and say its because thats where the counteroffensive will start. After Ukraine has set all the conditions it can, and tipped the balance of military power as far as it can in its favor -- I believe within the next month or two -- Ukraine makes a major push into Zaporizhia oblast. If successful, it would divide Russian forces in half, with a big part of the southern half pinned across the Dnipro in Kherson with absolutely no hope of resupply. Those forces would fold. At the same time, Ukraine could advance on the east well behind the front, where Russia has had a lot of time to dig in, set mines, etc. Will it work? No idea. Ukraine probably only has one shot to make this happen soon, if it fails then we are in for a long war. But Ukraine is being helped by NATO military expertise and intelligence, not to mention the factors above, and definitely has morale on its side. I think when it happens Russian forces fold like a cheap track suit. P.S. I'm also waiting for undercover operatives to put a detonator in an ammo car on a train thats about to head over the Kerch bridge.
  10. IMO, Russia is using the ZPP first and foremost as a base where they know they won't get blown up by Ukraine. But being the sadistic opportunists they are, I think they are also using the threat to either/both cause Ukraine to capitulate or erode western support for Ukraine (through people demanding to stop the war). While they are dumb, I don't think they are dumb enough to go through with it, because I think the west responds by declaring Russia a terrorist state and probably with a no fly zone leading to Russian defeat pretty quickly. We need to stand strong and call the bluff.
  11. Holy shit, yesterday sounds like a good day for AFU. 400 troops is nice, but *69* "vehicles & fuel tanks" is a huge day. Maybe a bunch of trucks etc were at the base in Belgorod that blew up?
  12. I'm kind of surprised nobody has posted this yet: https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct "Top findings: The leadership of the intelligence-run wing of the International Legion is allegedly implicated in various violations, including abuse, theft, and sending soldiers unprepared on reckless missions. One of the unit’s commanders and a frequent subject of the soldiers’ complaints is an alleged former member of a criminal organization from Poland, wanted at home for fraud. In the Legion’s unit, he is involved in coordinating military operations and logistics. The legion’s fighters accuse him of abusing power by ordering soldiers to loot shops, threatening soldiers with a gun, and sexually harassing the legion’s female medics." After reading the article, I see it as a situation where there were a few bad apples in the foreign legion, and the Ukrainian gov't was too busy trying to save its country to do something about it right away. Hopefully this article spurs the gov to get the Polish mobsters out of the foreign legion. My layman perspective/belief is that UKR should want every foreign SOF volunteer it can get, and should do everything it can to set these guys up to destroy Russians. Disappointing but I don't think a systemic problem.
  13. Good call! http://wartranslated.com/ukrainian-informational-operations-cause-panic-in-crimea/
  14. RF don't have any counter battery that can hit HIMARS at the distances they are being fired from, even if RF knew where, do they?
  15. Finland is waiting on 16 countries to sign and "deposit" their NATO accession protocol.
  16. Posts no source for the claim that US would withhold aid if Ukraine participated in talks, instead claims that arms are escaping Ukraine but posts no source for that either
  17. Which is . . . exactly what we’re doing? Seriously, go sniff farts with immaculate vibes
  18. That would feel good but they are needed to trade for pows
  19. Did Lavrov really admit that more than 50% RU troops have been killed???
  20. No. It is apparently all about having trained dudes to maintain the launchers, and having lots of ammo. One launcher can fire a stupid number of times per day and have a big range. They don’t need many more launchers, they need a steady supply of missiles and logistical support
  21. Don't tell me their Army knife isn't a great innovation
  22. Here's my fan fiction re: Snake Island. Ukraine controlling this island does not give them control of all of the Black Sea shipping lanes, but it does give Ukraine control of Ukrainian waters. Putin has bluffed that as a gesture of goodwill, Russia vacated the island and will allow grain shipments. So, call the bluff. Have some NATO member send cargo ships to Odessa to pick up grain, or send a NATO escort. If/when Russia fires on the ships in Romanian or Bulgarian waters, it triggers article V. Then, NATO imposes a no-fly zone, cripples the Russian Black Sea fleet, etc.
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