texastough

It seems thats where we're headed. The arms announced the last couple days have been massive.

If putting missiles & air defense out there can open the shipping lanes it would totally be worth it

Put some Harpoons and Exocets out there along with one of the fancy NATO air defense systems and voila

I'm no math expert, but that might tip the balance a bit

Statements to him by Trump in furtherance of a crime would fall under the exception, isn't that the real point anyway? They're not trying to nail Pasquale. In other words, Trump kept saying he wanted to commit sedition and Cipollone kept telling him no

sorry how do you embed a tweet?

wtf https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1541807381469974531?s=20&t=na_R1OG_aYIw4J8KEx2xmQ

With those kind of negotiation skills, Lithuania may end up paying Russia to take back the suwalki gap

For the umpteenth time, they’re not trying to convert Trump worshippers

Mmmm, ciguatera

I have a slightly different take. If Ukraine immediately goes into Crimea, then it is vulnerable to naval/air power. Also, my understanding is Crimea is not as valuable economically, has fewer people etc. I think the outcome in the Donbas is where the war is won/lost. I think when it takes Kherson, Ukraine stops where the peninsula starts, to stop all Russian resupply from that route. If Ukraine could also push to Mariupol, it would then cut off all the Russians in between (with the Sea of Azov hemming them in the south) and achieve victory without risking their own soldiers' lives. Only after Ukraine takes back the southern coast and Russia is in total retreat/defeat/surrender does Ukraine take the rest of Crimea. My .02.

Here are my thoughts while we are on a thin news cycle on the war. I'm not military, don't know shit, except that I've been following this closely since February. As everyone here knows, Russia started the invasion by trying to take everything at once, with Russian groups running willy nilly and not coordinating, and an abject failure of logistics. They were stretched way too thin and Ukraine's active defense easily picked them off, leading to Russian defeat/withdrawal from the entire northern part of Ukraine. Since then, Russia has concentrated forces in the east where it is still trying to advance, paving the way with artillery. It has taken a defensive posture elsewhere along the front and has apparently shored up air defenses. In those two months, the front has not changed much, with both sides making minor gains in certain areas. Does this mean a relatively even match in terms of combat power between each side's military, which would lead to a really long war? I don't think so. This may be me wishcasting, but here is what I think the Ukrainian strategy is, and why this will be over within a few more months. Despite all of Russia's problems with logistics, morale, etc, Russia began with a numbers advantage in hardware and personnel. Ukraine has a much better trained and effective military, pound for pound, but is outgunned/outnumbered. That is changing, however. Russia's losses of hardware and troops (kia, wounded, refusing to fight etc) are mounting. Russia seems to be culminating. At the same time, Ukraine has had 3-4 months to train a ton of new volunteers, and western weapons are really starting to flow. Its not like Ukraine needs more motivation, but Russia's continued atrocities give them plenty of urgency. They know that the faster they defeat Russia, the more civilian lives they save. At the same time, attacking too soon not only risks more troop lives, but risks losing the war, a risk Ukraine cannot take. So, what are they waiting for -- when does Ukraine counterattack? I think its pretty simple. Ukraine knows that it needs as great an advantage as it can get in order to go on the offensive. Several factors are converging soon that will set those conditions. First, despite the front line not changing much, the fighting for the last two months has continued to be intense in certain areas, where Russia has tried to advance. This is leading to attrition that favors Ukraine by at lot. In other words, its a lot easier to destroy the Russian military when Ukraine is playing defense. But when Russia stops trying to advance (likely very soon - days or weeks) the attrition will likely slow way down too. As mentioned above, Ukraine is adding a lot of freshly trained troops and the really significant western weapons (HIMARS etc) are just now arriving in numbers. So, I think Ukraine is almost done setting conditions. I think the Ukrainian Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks were largely feints to see how Russia responded, such as how many reinforcements would be sent and from where. When Ukraine starts its true counterattack, I think it will start at one place, like Kherson, but then as soon as Russia moves to defend, Ukraine will start to counter in other areas too, like Karkhiv/Izium etc. With any luck, this will quickly lead to chaos within the Russian forces and total defeat. I'll put it in August, two months from now. [One thing that has puzzled me is why loitering drones like switchblades haven't made more noise so far, since Ukraine got a bunch of them. They would obviously be a great way to continue attriting Russians while waiting to counterattack. My guess is that the front lines are more or less artillery distance apart, and that is beyond the switchblade's range? In my wildest fantasy, Ukraine has been holding back its loitering drones so that when its counter begins, it can unleash drone swarms advancing ahead of the Ukrainian armor, picking off Russians who run away too slow.]

Do we have a thread yet about "redshirting" kids, i.e. what age should kids enter first grade? We have three with summer birthdays so we are struggling whether to let them go ahead and be among the youngest in their respective classes, or "redshirt" so they'll be among the oldest. Wife keeps hearing everyone redshirts, I hear that not many do.

I wouldn't be able to function without it in that situation

nice jacuzzi Hook em!

Do you live on a putt putt golf course?

spot on

Not while they are still trying to take the Donbas pocket. But, I think that will just hasten the end of the war. The Rascists should have been on the defensive long ago to preserve combat force. Re: Russian citizens being moved into Ukraine, what are the odds the Russian military bombs, tortures, rapes and/or executes some of them?

Never root for OU ever this is the cardinal rule

Ma must be off her meds again IB4C!

Isn't that a hognose?

Some hot takes here. The Russians won't execute the Ukrainian pows because then Ukraine would just do the same to Russian pows. I think they are threatening to execute the foreign fighters to dissuade others from helping Ukraine, but won't go through with it.

Starting pitchers only get a win if they go 5 innings, have the lead when they come out, and the team does not lose the lead

Not sure I agree with your math there Bill