texastough

Its the US government's fault. Did I do that right?

too perfect

Delores county is in the farming/ranching MAGA bubble. In Telluride, even the locals are mostly trust funders

This concludes Russia probably has about 2,000 modern-ish tanks still operational, but seems to me it leaves out something really important from the analysis. How many trained tank crews does Russia have left? Doesn't it require some extensive training to use a tank effectively? Given Russia has lost most of its initial invading force and is replacing it with untrained mobiks, I would think that is the limiting factor rather than number of working tanks.

I made a post a few months ago, looking at the daily casualty number claimed by Ukraine. At the time, the number had been 100-200 per day, and suddenly jumped up to 300-400 per day for a couple of weeks. I think that one coincided with the arrival of HIMARS and western artillery. I know the front line hasn't moved much in a month, but the casualty numbers are bananas right now: October 29: 550 October 30: 950 October 31: 620 November 1: 650 November 2: 800 The five days before that were 470, 480, 480, 320, 480. If true, that means Russia has lost 5,800 troops in the last ten days. Since Ukraine has not been making big gains, do these numbers reflect large numbers of mobiks finally making it to the front lines? Whatever the explanation, it is hard to see Russia lasting too long with that kind of attrition. I wonder what the Ukrainians have planned for them when the ground freezes up.

950 orcs killed yesterday?? I wonder if they are counting naval personnel in Sevastopol. Edit: I don't think so since they are not counting any boats on that list.

SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING!!!

I'm wondering too if part of this is to gain strategic ground rather than simply gain as much ground as possible while conditions are ripe. For example, all of Russian occupied Kherson west of the Dnipro has been within HIMARS range, and Ukraine has taken advantage of that. But, after high value targets have been destroyed, there's a point where using HIMARS is more expensive than its worth. It was worth it to do the initial damage on the Nova Kakhova dam, but is it a good use of HIMARS to keep hitting Russia's repairs to the crossing? However, push south of Dudchany, as Ukraine has done the last few days, and it puts Nova Kakhova within Howitzer range. Much more cost effective to continue the campaign of destroying Russian logistics/ammo dumps/bases with Howitzers instead of HIMARS, with the added advantage that even a limited advance still throws the Russian front lines into chaos. For the same reasons, it would not surprise me if Ukraine does not directly attack Svatove at first, but instead cut the glocs running through Svatove and bypass the town to get within artillery range of the glocs going to Starobilsk.

The point still stands that its really hard to see how a tactical nuke could help Russia on the current battlefield. The scenario that I think is most likely -- Ukraine pushes Russia out of the Donbas, Zap, and Kherson, and is getting ready to take on Crimea. Putin positions a tactical nuke at the ithsmus connecting Crimea to Ukraine -- basically the only way for Ukraine to enter Crimea -- and says if you try to invade Crimea, we nuke you. Hopefully the west's collective intel would know if that is a bluff or not, but if Russia was actually able to put a nuke there I don't know what the solution would be, short of calling in Mi6/007

Pretty bold . . .

You do sound pretty combobulated about this issue

In all seriousness, I think this all ends with Russia de-nuked. Putin goes down, breakaway republics/regions gain independence, the west only removes sanctions after denuclearization, and post-Putin leadership has no choice but to agree.

Belarus has already been sanctioned pretty significantly. I'm sure not to the same extent as Russia, but for instance all the trade sanctions apply equally to Belarus because everyone knows that otherwise, all the microchips and other shit Russia needs would just flow through Belarus to Russia.

More than the Vlad fellating, its HB's conclusions based off stuff like that. Oh, gas prices are going to be high for a few years, Now We'Re aLL FucKeD!! Or, Europe was able to pivot away from its decades long reliance on Russian gas in less than a year, with minimal short term pain to completely decouple from a totally fucked country run by a genocidal maniac.

Sorry to derail the Tucker Carlson thread . . . Putin's days have to be numbered at this point, right? The absolute shitshow he has created is a catastrophe for everyone in Russia -- whether you're a plebe who is getting mobilized, laid off, or can't find any products on the shelves; a mom or wife of a dead or maimed soldier; an oligarch losing billions; or military brass getting thrown under the bus (or out a window) for the abject military failure. Surely there's a way for 140 million to get rid of one dude? I think the best case scenario for the world when that happens, is to break Russia up with each region becoming its own sovereign/independent republic. Normally that wouldn't be possible but with the military being completely gutted after this, I would think/hope separatist regions have a real chance this time.

Thank you. I'm going to flip if another journalist or keyboard general talks about the "stalled" Kherson offensive. Its not stalled you dumb motherfuckers, its going exactly according to plan, i.e. to destroy logistics and escape routes while mostly keeping Ukrainian troops out of harms way. Actually it is going more according to plan than the Kharkiv offensive. The Kharkiv offensive took back a lot of ground, but a lot of Russians escaped the Izium "cauldron" to drop back to the Donbas. The only Russians escaping from Kherson are doing it on a rowboat. The vast majority of them are going to cave spectacularly pretty soon.

We're finally tackling America's obesity problem! (re: food prices)

Seems like the spearhead attack group has been taking an operational halt ever since they reached the Oksil a couple of days ago. I think different AFU groupings are the ones trying to clean out Lyman and Kreminna.

Fuck man I hope Russia doesn't declare war! Then I guess they'd stop fooling around and get serious!

MOAR

its getting fucking spicy for the invaders

Yep, with whats happening on the ground, this thread 'bout to heat up. Putin has reportedly taken command of the Russian forces, but with the disarray/collapse happening now, I'm sure his attention is being pulled mostly toward maintaining power/control over the Russian people. With nobody really commanding the military, the collapse of the entire Russian forces in Ukraine will only come quicker. What happens in Moscow when Ukraine is chasing the last fleeing orcs over the Kerch bridge? It may happen pretty soon.

My federal rules of procedure and rules of evidence are super rusty. Anyone know whether positions taken by Trump in this proceeding could have a res judicata effect, or at least be admissible in a criminal proceeding about him stealing the docs? Because if so, this also basically forces Trump to commit to his defense for the criminal proceeding in a day or two. It would be pretty fatal to take a different position than in this case.

There is no way Trump can concede that no privilege applies to the classified documents. That is almost as good as an admission of guilt in the coming criminal prosecution. My guess is their brief argues that the personal and governmental records were commingled at MAL, and potential privileges could apply to, for example, personal/presidential documents that made reference to classified documents. In other words, argue that it still takes a special master to sort out how all the records were being used/reviewed by Trump. Admittedly its a shitty argument but its the best I can come up with. Either way its a brilliant strategy to put Trump in this position.