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El Hornarino

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Everything posted by El Hornarino

  1. Compare a team's record vs the expected record for a team of some arbitrary strength against that schedule. Rank the teams based on how much they over or underperformed vs this hypothetical team. It's not like it is foolproof, depending on how you rank the teams you end up with different expected losses, and then the strength of the hypothetical team can shift the ranks around.
  2. High Strength of Schedule does not necessarily mean you are a good team, just that you had good teams on your schedule. Strength of Record is more appropriate once we've seen the games played when you want to compare teams with disparate records. Here's two versions of SoR: SOR FPI FEI 1 Indiana Indiana 2 Georgia Georgia 3 Texas A&M Oregon 4 Ohio State Ohio State 5 Oregon Texas A&M 6 Ole Miss Texas Tech 7 Texas Tech Ole Miss 8 Oklahoma BYU 9 BYU Oklahoma 10 Alabama Alabama 11 Vanderbilt Texas 12 Texas Vanderbilt 13 Notre Dame Notre Dame But now we're back to the debate between "best" and "most deserving." Strength of Record is a "deserving" metric. For the "best" teams, look at where the predictive style rankings are actually putting the teams. Here's some below, and I also threw in Massey Composite: Rank FPI FEI SP+ Sagarin Massey Composite 1 Indiana Indiana Ohio State Ohio State Indiana 2 Ohio State Ohio State Indiana Indiana Ohio State 3 Notre Dame Oregon Texas Tech Notre Dame Georgia 4 Oregon Notre Dame Oregon Oregon Texas Tech 5 Texas Tech Texas Tech Georgia Texas Tech Oregon 6 Georgia Georgia Notre Dame Georgia Ole Miss 7 Miami Utah Ole Miss Miami Notre Dame 8 Alabama Vanderbilt Texas A&M Texas A&M Texas A&M 9 Utah Miami Miami Alabama Oklahoma 10 Texas A&M Alabama Utah Ole Miss BYU 11 USC Texas A&M Vanderbilt Vanderbilt Miami 12 Ole Miss USC Oklahoma Texas Alabama 13 Texas Oklahoma Alabama Oklahoma Utah If you don't like these, pick whichever system that is meant to be predictive and use those results. This is neither here nor there as far as the committee goes. They are supposedly ranking the "best" teams, although five slots for conference champs is a big concession to "deserving."
  3. Notre Dame AD isn't entirely wrong. The weekly rankings and the whole committee process is a very bad joke. More hilarious that they were up to #2 in Sagarin, #5 SP+, #4 FEI and got punched in the nuts.
  4. Sucks missing the playoffs, but this game may be better than most of the highly regarded first round playoff games.
  5. Bama is 9-3 against FBS teams this year. The "extra" game they played was against Eastern Illinois.
  6. I'm glad that article gave me permission to root for Duke. I was going to anyway as a way to be a salty Texas fan, but it's good to have permission.
  7. Brian Kelly would have been a good fit for a villain of the week on NCIS: New Orleans.
  8. I don't mind if they shrink the playoff, or let an algorithm decide. But which system(s) does one use? It isn't like they all spit out the same top 8. And even if you aggregate a few, you don't want to pollute it with one or more junk rankings. How much should MOV matter?
  9. I don't care if Notre Dame is excluded while they are an independent. They can be crowned AP champ if they want. As far as conference tournaments, there is little difference between SEC and B1G teams eliminating themselves against conference foes or against other random teams. Single elimination post season is never going to guarantee the "strongest" team is the last one standing anyway. Actually the fun thing is that the probability the best team wins the tournament drops as the number of played games increases anyway, so expanding the field and number of rounds isn't really about finding the "best" team. It's just about filling tv time with fun games.
  10. P4 championships in the second round, after the first At Large round. Could plausibly seed the conferences for quality and swap them around the bracket depending on the year. But generally G5 champs and random independent freeloaders can compete for At Large spots along with whatever power teams are not in conference championship games.
  11. I might just prefer conference championship tournaments, feeding into a national playoff with the top four champions. If people prefer an expanded national tournament for some reason, something else needs to happen with the conference championship games. Like moving them into a later part of the national brackets.
  12. FEI EWD (Strength of Record based performance v 2 standard deviation above average team) 1. Indiana 2. Ohio State 3. Oregon 4. Aggie (lol) 5. Georgia 6. BYU (!) 7. Alabama 8. Ole Miss 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas 12. Vanderbilt 13. Notre Dame 14. Miami 15. Utah
  13. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47178710/week-15-anger-index-teams-upset-college-football-playoff-ranking-2025 Week 15 Anger Index - David Hale (spoiler alert: We're Number 1!!)
  14. This evidence is irrefutable. Red blooded Americans want Texas in the playoffs.
  15. But will they manage to blow the game against FSU again? Chattanooga is FCS just to remind people. Honestly the committee should probably consider only record vs FBS, unless someone manages to lose to their FCS opponent.
  16. If we would have swapped Judkins (or pick a back) onto our team, do you think the OL / offense would have been good enough to win the title last season?
  17. It will mostly be our inability to hold onto big leads and put away crappy teams that will keep us out. The results last weekend also hurt us. Sagarin is one of the few algorithms where Texas is ranked decently. But take a look at the top 14: 1. Ohio State 2. Notre Dame (!) 3. Indiana 4. Oregon 5. Texas Tech 6. Miami-Fl 7. Alabama 8. Georgia 9. Aggie 10. Ole Miss 11. Vanderbilt (!) 12. Texas 13. Oklahoma 14. Penn State (!) Lose by a little against good teams, and run up the score vs the cupcakes. Texas struggled on the road, even against shitty teams. We damn near lost to Kentucky, then they decide they might as well quit and we get this: Furk. We basically lost v Kentucky as far as some models are concerned. Then you have something like this when a "contender" plays a mediocre team: We were ahead of the fightin' Pavias by 24 heading into the 4th. Gave up 21 points and scored 0 more. Or here's Ole Miss v Cowbell It was cool we were able to come back and win with 24 4th quarter points and another 7 in OT, but it was problematic that we were in the situation to begin with. FEI hates us. We're 18th, behind two 8-4 teams in Washington and Iowa (and they are 7-4 in FBS games, FEI doesn't even count FCS). We punished Aggie more than rewarded ourselves with the win, dropping them to 11th. Meanwhile the Pavias are up to 8th. Just crazy. But SP+ hates us even more. We're 22nd there, whereas Aggie only dropped to 8th. Vandy up to 11th where Alabama is 12th (lol). I suppose part of it for the last two are due to them rewarding efficiency. Vanderbilt is certainly efficient. Their defense sucks, but their offense is really efficient. There's a lot of work to do for next season. There are a variety of roster holes that need filled if we want to be a contender. There are several coaching changes that need to be made. Maybe it is a blessing to miss the playoffs so the staff can focus on fixing our areas of weakness to make a run next year.
  18. That bit shared on FB was from an article written in 2011 about the rivalry pausing. Also this: Aggies insecure about being fake army even back then.
  19. "Covered in dingdong fudge" does not sound appetizing to me.
  20. I think it was IT (or whichever 9.95er), but one of them claimed that was more or less how the secondary is coached.
  21. I think Georgia's last touchdown was in garbage time per FEI's definition (margin > remaining possessions by losing team x 8 +1). But this makes the loss more pathetic and sad, not less.
  22. Channeling my inner Burton - "Interesting." I don't like playing this game either. I'd probably be inclined to say Manning though, choosing to ignore the clunkers earlier in the season. Good receivers make their QB's look better though. Sayin looks a lot better with both Smith and Tate on the field. Evans made Manziel, etc.
  23. Who is our best skill position guy? How does he compare to the guys at his position on other teams this season?
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