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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. SJSU is bad and Texas will thoroughly dominate. Predicting the score and stat lines in games like these is always tricky because 1.) They are going to get lots of young guys run, especially on defense, and 2.) Sark often calls games he knows he's going to win like they're practice scrimmages, focusing on specific things he wants to work on or prove a point about. We've seen him do this in conference games and I expect he's going to have a pass heavy game plan to maximize the live reps for Arch. That could inflate the score line or it could lead to offensive stalls. Texas: 55 (Sark kicks a couple FGs - kicker needs reps too) SJSU: 0 Texas rushing yards: 196 - fewer than you'd maybe expect because of said focus on pass game reps.
  2. I do expect the Texas offense to struggle vs OU, to be frank. Venables generally does a good job with his defensive game plan vs Sark. But the second part is just dumb. The Texas pass defense was awful in 2023. Horrible in the secondary and a mediocre pass rush, and only that good because of two freaks on the interior. OU used the same game plan Texas used on Michigan, get Murphy and Sweat moving laterally and at tempo to neutralize them. Then they let their NFL QB go to work. That OU offense would be handled by the 2024 or 2025 Texas defense and the OU offense we'll see this year will not be as good at any level. First offense to 21 likely wins the RRS.
  3. The strange line has already been mentioned but it must be noted that OU's jerseys are ugly as fuck.
  4. I do agree that the box score is a bit misleading but Texas would not have produced like that on the ground against even the exact same game plan last year. Arch was not constantly running for his life. In the context of it being the unit's first start, Goosby's injury, Stroh's first meaningful action, and Baker's first game as a starter, the unit exceeded my expectations, though I admit they were low.
  5. Oh please. Sark almost punked a better OU team in 2021 and has delivered two beatdowns. I do hold a lot of the 2023 loss on him for late game coaching decisions but the team wasn't overwhelmed and came back from deficits at multiple points. 2025 OU is going to struggle to score on Texas. It could be a rock fight, and the game can go either way on one play in that scenario, but I'm not concerned about this defense getting flattened by anybody, certainly not OU.
  6. Well that's a lot of words for OU fans to read so I'm not surprised they're struggling.
  7. I think he was slow to process, late to arrive at most of his decisions, and often rushed/sloppy in getting the ball out. Whether that was to compensate for being late, feeling pressure, pressing, all of the above... Only Arch knows that. Though there are some suboptimal decisions, I see very few straight up bad decisions (the incomplete deep ball into double coverage stands out) which I guess is a silver lining. If he makes most of these throws a half second to second earlier and is composed enough to stand in and deliver a playable throw, he has a big day. Big "if's" obviously and a long way to go for that to be a reality against top tier defenses, but that stuff tends to come with time. I think the reality is that Arch is just not as far along as even the more measured among us expected.
  8. You would be surprised at how many college offenses this describes.
  9. We're going to. I'm ripping this from Scipio/Wadlington, but football is pass/fail. What was on the field yesterday would absolutely be enough to wax SJSU 56-3 or whatever. Plenty of shitty Mack/Strong/Herman teams and Sark's 2021 team managed to run up outsized margins against lesser opponents. We've already seen Arch Manning do so with many of the same flaws he exhibited yesterday. You can get away with things against SJSU, UTEP, and SHSU that you can't against Ohio State. Fuck it's going to be a long month lol
  10. Not sure I but that's the same person; but if so, woof. Hate will age a motherfucker.
  11. SJSU lost to a Central Michigan team that threw 11 passes and outrushed them by more than 3x (236-75). Offensively, they did throw for 308 but it took them 45 attempts at 53% completion. This is a bad team that should not score on the Texas first team defense. Hopefully they will rotate lots of young guys and get out of there healthy. I'm sure everyone will be stoked about a bounceback game from Arch but I doubt there will be anything to take from the next three games on that front. Of course he'll feel more comfortable and play cleaner.
  12. I think this probably how it ends up. Caleb Downs ain't walking through that door and Ohio State's LBs are really fucking good too. Still, OU will likely have the personnel, schemes, and intensity to cause the Texas offense quite a few problems unless Arch's mental game improves by leaps and bounds in 41 days.
  13. I think there's a decent chance Oklahoma is better on defense than Ohio State. Certainly up front. Our OL played pretty well but I'm not sure Ohio State's DL is the elite unit we're used to seeing from them. Now, their offense also probably presents less of a challenge for our defense too. RRS could be an absolute rock fight.
  14. I watched the video (because I hate myself) and I agree, more of those throws were there than I realized live. The majority of snaps I think Arch gets to the (or at least a) correct decision and is just late. It's reasonable to expect that anticipation to develop with time, though maybe more like next season than next month. In that sense I feel a little better. A few really were just brutal unforced breakdowns though: Obviously the first pass of the game. Gets spooked by the pursuing defender and short arms what was schemed for an easy 20 yard game right off the bat. Game in a nutshell. On the 4th down throw to Livingstone in the endzone, he's got Wingo on a slant on a designed pick play. Guaranteed first down and potentially a TD if Wingo gets some momentum. Instead Arch chooses the higher degree of difficulty with the deep out - actually thorws a decent ball but it's well covered and Livingstone can't quite make the play. Both third down drags to Wingo, the one in the red zone and the one on the last drive. The latter definitely worse. Just late to make the throw and pressing resulting in unnecessarily bad balls. Hugely consequential unforced errors. INT - Now we can't see the pattern in the TV view, but as mentioned below Arch turns his back to the defense on the play fake. The throw to Wingo is there if it's dropped over the DB and in front of Wingo. Tough catch but the DB can't do anything about it. Very possible Arch is late allowing the DB to close on what would have been a huge play if thrown on time. It seems to me the root issue for a lot of this is the composure and anticipation that comes with experience. He's been clunky with touch and timing in the short/intermediate game every time we've seen him at Texas though. While I obviously expect him to play better over the course of the year, if it looked like that coming out of fall camp, I don't expect it will improve enough to really stress the better defenses on the schedule, and Texas will see some more struggles in the passing game. Unless Texas is able to just dominate games with defense and running the ball there could be several stressful, ugly rock fights and a few more Ls in store. Side note - man, Endries had a really nice game. He is faster than I realized, faster than helm and maybe even Sanders. He should have a great year. I think this is absolutely the explanation of that stat.
  15. Obviously not, but it's equally unserious to think Ohio State couldn't read the writing on the wall during the game. They turtled. It worked until Arch found a modicum of a pulse there in Q4 and it came back to bit them a bit. But they knew early on they were winning that game if they didn't hand it to Texas. So in some sense I think the team stats and gap in total yardage are a bit of an illusion. That's not to say I don't think the Texas defense played a strong game because they obviously did.
  16. Yeah it was really jarring. It's not like Ewers where they looked bad from day 1 and just kind of never got fixed. I have never seen Arch's feet die or throw sidearmed like he did yesterday. Issues with timing, decision making, sure. Seen that before and expected more of the same. Standard young QB stuff. Chernobyl-level meltdown with loss of physical ability to throw a football for three full quarters? That was one of the stranger things I've ever seen on a football field.
  17. Also this. If it's 4th and goal from the 3-4, I think he kicks it and that's a more defensible decision. Baxter's second effort got you a couple feet from the goal line and completely changed the calculus.
  18. The solution isn't pivoting to the clearly inferior option in terms of maximizing win probability. It's not being so shitty at setting your team up for success in that situation. Also, no, losing 14-12 does not feel any different than losing 14-7. That is just aggy grade cope.
  19. I don't know. They obviously have things to improve on. They were also pretty clearly calling a very conservative game, especially after going up1 4-0 but even before then. Once Texas couldn't answer their first TD I think it was as obvious to them as it was to anyone watching the game that they were going to win so long as they didn't give Texas anything on a silver platter. If we can shrug off what Arch just put out there as nerves and be confident he'll improve then I see no reason Ohio State should be particularly concerned.
  20. This is a pointless argument. Sark is the OC and supposed QB guru. Sark took an active role in the recruitment of Arch Manning. The quality of the QB play isn't an excuse for him, it's supposed to be the differentiator.
  21. Playing Ohio State week 1 was fun. We should continue these games whether they're week 1, 2, whatever. Blacklisting opening weekend because we showed up with a QB that looked like you dropped a high schooler in the shoe for most of the game would be charmin soft. We should just be better next time.
  22. Oh no, not female cheerleaders!
  23. How could we forget when it's exactly what we watched today?
  24. I haven't even gotten a chance to watch and yet I can confidently say this is wrong lol Stop using Heisman and Arch in the same sentence unless it's a joke. Let's just hope he doesn't cost us games outright in Gainesville and Dallas.
  25. I guess you could make the argument with a serious face if you lack a 6th grade level grasp of probability.
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