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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. gmr548
    Historically it's a pass/fail. It's pretty well established that a true plus-VP candidate is very rare, but you can do your campaign real harm with a bad pick. See Palin, Sarah and potentially Vance, JD.
  2. gmr548
    lol JFC, two wildly dramatic reactions from opposite ends. No one is staying home over it. Harris saying she'd sign that bill is barely news and will be forgotten by Monday. I'm neither optimistic or pessimistic that she'd sign it if presented the opportunity because I strongly believe she never will be. It's a bad policy position, but good (albeit marginal) politics.
  3. gmr548
    I tend to agree with this. Kamala Harris can freely say she will sign it because it will never come up again. Democrats in Congress won't put it in front of her, and if she wins Democrats very likely control at least the House and maybe even hold the Senate by the skin of their teeth. Even in the world where we end up with Republicans flipping the Senate and holding the House, but Harris is President (this has to be like 2% probability), it isn't going to get 60 votes in the Senate.
  4. gmr548
    FIFY I get the political impetus, but that bill is shit policy and I hope it never sees the light of day again. As far as I'm concerned, Trump killing it from afar was the perfect ending. Democrats get to say "See, we can be shitty too! Trump just stopped us!" without actually doing it.
  5. gmr548
    Consider that maybe the campaign did have a plan to actually win and Trump just isn't capable of executing it against a candidate that does not have the limitations of Joe Biden. The tables have basically turned. Harris is running the campaign we all wanted Biden to run, and I think Biden wanted to run but couldn't. Even dismissing the obvious bigotry... Who cares? Why is what division a trans athlete competes in a remote concern of the President of the United States. If things are so good that that'd even on the radar you should obviously be voting for Harris to continue to continue the absolutely remarkable prosperity brought by the Biden administration to make that true. It's just so stupid. Elon Musk loves Donald Trump as a fellow mush-brained moron born into the modern feudal nobility. Nothing more, nothing less.
  6. gmr548
    Drove through it for the first time in a while earlier this year. Really sad, feels more like the deep south or rust belt than typical small/midsized city in Texas.
  7. gmr548
    Someone needs to ask them why it's cool for JD Vance's kids to be half white, half Indian; but some sort of scandal for Kamala Harris to be half black, half Indian.
  8. gmr548
  9. gmr548
    That this is the best Texags can muster is really sad.
  10. gmr548
  11. gmr548
    I'm gonna be honest, when I saw people lampooning MAGA using the word "colored" I didn't think they were being literal. Perhaps that reflects more on me than anything else, because I should have known...
  12. gmr548
    We're back in tossup territory bois
  13. gmr548
    One visit was for a national teacher's union conference likely scheduled well in advance, and now she is there for SJL services. Texas is a legitimate campaign stop as a Democratic presidential candidate to hit the ATM and try to drum up enthusiasm that might help in down ballot races, but I would not read anything into it beyond that.
  14. gmr548
    In the abstract I agree with you and @SydneyCarton - I am worried about violence though. I don't want to see people get hurt because MAGA is lashing out. I know that's part of who they are anyway but I have a feeling that is about to turn up to 11.
  15. gmr548
    The other - wait for it - weird thing about the MAGA bit here is that Harris has been pretty open about her mixed heritage, at least since she's come onto the national stage. Mixed race individuals and families are plenty common in the US in 2024. This idea that Kamala Harris can't be Indian and black is going to fall flat against most people's day to day experience. They are really showing heir ass here.
  16. gmr548
    Being actively antagonistic to black voters is such a fucking weird strategy for team Trump. I don't know if the Turmp campaign really believed they were going to have some generational breakthrough with black voters - I certainly didn't - but even just continuing the trend of a picking up a couple more percentage points and maybe benefitting from slightly lower turnout would more or less secure GA and make the rust belt trio that much heavier of a lift for Democrats. Now they are out here supercharging black enthusiasm for Harris and self sabotaging in five key swing states. If they piss off the black community to the point of losing GA and NC, the election is called as soon as polls close on the west coast. Just phenomenally dumb.
  17. gmr548
    To Donald Trump? There's like 9 years of evidence to the contrary but okay. Or at least that they only stick in that he does not expand his support.
  18. gmr548
    I didn't say they should feel good lol. Just saying it's a little early to be discussing the idea of Trump winning as borderline inconceivable.
  19. gmr548
    Everything in politics is fleeting. I have no idea what the news cycle will look like a month, two months from now, aside from the fact that it won't look like it does now. We've been watching novel, modern history-making events unfold for like a month straight so to assume the landscape won't significantly change is probably a bad idea. I don't know the last time I said this, but if the election were held tomorrow it'd be a complete coin flip and I might even favor Harris. It's not held tomorrow though; at the moment that uncertainty is potential upside for Trump much as it was for Democrats when trying to get Biden to step aside. People's opinions of Trump are hardened. Partisanship is a bitch. I doubt he wins any new supports but I doubt he loses many relative to 2016 or 2020 either. You can be reasonably sure of him getting his ~46% nationally and + 2%-3% on that in swing states that generally lean slightly right of the nation.
  20. gmr548
    July is typically too early for aggy tears but you're goodamn right I'm here for this.
  21. gmr548
    In this same vein, unfortunately I see the same thing shaping up. I am scared this is going to get really, really ugly.
  22. gmr548
    The right is getting better at comedy and the left is terrified! I bet this landed better on Texags huh?
  23. gmr548
    I'm not giving him a pass at all. It's a phenomenally twisted, apparently at least somewhat sincerely held stance - which seems to be an outlier for him - that also fails to withstand even basic logical scrutiny.
  24. gmr548
    The overarching theme of this stuff, whether it was the "childless cat ladies" soundbite, his attempt at clarifying that, or this new one, is that JD Vance seems to think he is the first person to ever have children or have children that they care about in their life. Major "tech bro discovers parenthood" vibes. I don't know how this guy hasn't died of asphyxiation from the enormous volume of his own farts he seems to have huffed.
  25. gmr548

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