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gmr548

Legacy Members

Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Absolutely, among other things. This is an ugly, ugly country and society.
  2. Best I can do is the burgeoning liberal paradise of Western Oklahoma,
  3. The campaign is the platform to some degree so they can be hard to separate. In general I agree, the issues where Democrats are weakest is where they try to be Republican lite. There is backlash against incumbent governments across the western world coming out of post-COVID inflation and general degradation of the social contract. The US is not immune to that. I do not believe this is a HRC situation. Yes, the noted Trump states of IL, VA, NJ, NY, DE, VT, etc.
  4. The idea of holding on to AZ while losing GA, WI, and especially NV doesn't really square. We'll see I guess. Looking bleak.
  5. Yeah I think we're done here.
  6. I'd have said this is an absurd map and it still probably is, but with about half the vote in, Harris is running ahead of Biden in Maricopa and Pima counties in AZ. AKA where everyone lives. Something to keep an eye on.
  7. Virginia looks atrocious on margin.
  8. Southern and northern college educated whites behave differently in elections. That's basically the Democratic path at this point.
  9. GA's going to be close but I don't think she gets there. Some promising numbers in the midwest.
  10. They do this with Virginia every year. Those red counties come in, it's close in a horserace sense, but apply some basic math on and you know the winner. Trump + 9 in Texas is... disappointing, but not surprising. Same thing as Florida, post-COVID. Red California.
  11. NC Gov called for Stein with must 25% of the vote. Stein is running about 7 points in front of Harris so far.
  12. App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, potential expansion with Northern Arizona and Nevada - Reno
  13. They're worth paying attention to, not necessarily because Harris will win (she won't) but the margins can tell you if she's got a real shot in WI/MI/PA.
  14. I think people expected not to lose Florida by 13. That's a bit of a problem. I think forecasts like the NYT needle or 538 are probably overweighting that result a little bit but it's absolutely a bad sign for the rest of the Sun Belt swing states even if you buy that Florida is the GOP NY now - which I do.
  15. This the game day thread? GA looks rough but need to see more of Atlanta come in. I don't hate where NC's at. Too early to infer anything significant in the rust belt. Hamilton County, IN gets mentioned a lot as a midwestern suburban bellwether and Harris is running marginaly better than Biden there with 75% of votes in.
  16. It was Florida + the margin in Ohio. I remember it vividly. I kept watching to see if she could pull out WI/MI/PA but I knew in my mind pretty early on.
  17. lmao what Look, I can buy the "R's have cannibalized their ED vote" line of thinking because a reversion to the mean makes sense but this is more than a little selectively interpreting data with the comparisons to 2020 ED specifically. We don't know shit about fuck. It would be a little weird if it didn't given it surpassed NY in the 2020 Census and has more EVs now. So basically they just submitted a Surly post chosen at random,
  18. Shit like this last part and the GA polling place threats is what worries me more than anything today. I know those were the Russians, but I do not have a lot of trust that Cult 45 won't get violent, even if only sporadically. Obviously the outcome matters a great deal in practical terms, but the "soul" of the country, as Joe Biden would put it, is what it is. Regardless of who wins, we are a country where damn near half of the electorate has not only voted for, but enthusiastically embraced fascism in three consecutive elections. That is something we are going to have to grapple with even if Harris wins by what qualifies as a comfortable margin by today's standards. I mean he didn't need to sell me on Harris but okay. lol at the Montgomery County cutoff being Abbott by < 25. Never change aggy. I'm finance-adjacent in commercial real estate and the NY/DC corporate/finance/political class consensus that it's going to be Trump has felt really weird to me since Harris's initial surge. Inverse 2016-ish to be honest. No one has ever really accused that crowd of being in touch with the rest of the country though so honestly, if anything (and I don't really put any stock in it at all) it's heartening. Trump has probably posted in the thread about being able to take a chimp in a fight. "Probably" is doing all the work here. Trump can win AZ/GA 100-0 and if he loses MI/WI/PA it won't matter. Speaking of lost games, love the resolve you're showing by being here. I don't know if I'd be ready to put myself out there again if South Carolina hung 27 unanswered on my team just a few days ago. Glad to have you back.
  19. I think the only thing that could get you banned there is acknowledging a Harris win, should it happen.
  20. Requoting because OU sucks. What exactly is there to attack? She could start with Norman? THIS. It's kind of a hard feeling to articulate but this is something I've noticed, and multiple friends have remarked to me independently. Texas has always been culturally conservative, undeniably so, but the Texas I grew up in was a live and let live place. Even as the religious far right really took hold of the GOP in the Bush years, and the GOP took full control of the state under Obama and started going full Loony Toons... SCOTUS generally kept things in check. There was a tolerable baseline. Now? The guardrails are gone, the rage and hatred are palpable, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, because even if Harris or Allred by some miracle win this cycle, the GOP still has an iron grip on the state government and it's likely to be at least a decade before SCOTUS is anything but a Christofascist rubber stamp. Really letting his Nuttycombes hang with a GA 8/10 Democratic win prob.
  21. This is worth both spiking global carbon emissions to feed AI's immense appetite for energy and the inevitable Skynet hammer drop.
  22. Well Trump's obviously not a Texas fan since he's not familiar with the obvious flaws in his argument known as Case McCoy and Chris Simms. Also, more contemporary, may I introduce Bronny James as evidence? This did not get enough love. Well played.
  23. I was at the UW-USC game yesterday and would attribute it mostly to number 3. The defense wasn't great or anything but they kept UW in the 20's despite being -3 in the turnover margin. USC started a little slow but moved the ball well. Outganied UW by a healthy margin. I thought their QB missed several open WRs for big plays in the first half (they probably should have emphasized the running game sooner) and of course there were the three INTs. One was a tip if I recall - shit happens - but the other two were not good.
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