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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Definitely. He's a narcissistic scumbag but Trump's brain is mush. He is a moron being manipulated to a desired end - a useful idiot. JD Vance very much knows what he is doing, that it's wrong, and is doing it anyway. He is a top tier piece of shit on the Abbot/Cruz/Rick Scott level. I do. Don't get it twisted, the bro demo Trump/Vance are chasing is primarialy the 18 to late 20's that don't remember 9/11, the Bush administration, and even a good chunk of Obama. The early-mid 30's have only ever known the GOP as extremely terrible Presidents in GWB and Trump, and are the then-youth vote that propelled Obama in '08. That is one of the most solidly Democratic cohorts in the country. Look, you did the right thing. You'll feel good about it on your deathbed. I want to give you genuine props for crossing over. I know American politics are essentially team sports fandom at this point and it's hard to do. But the fact of the matter is that anyone that recognizes what Trump is and continues to vote for him anyway out of blind partisanship is not a smart, independent thinker. That is the polar opposite.
  2. The logical angle for me - not that I think the Trump campaign is driven by much more than hubris and Trump's own whims - is that maybe their internals show Harris up 270-268 and they think the same performance among the combo of working class and latino that is likely to net them a win in NV and AZ could be worth a shot at pressing in NM as a hail mary tipping point, if they feel they've done what they can in the rust belt. I can't think of a good reason to be in VA. Make sure your friend knows he's an enormous cuck for referring to Joe Biden as "his" president. A true patriot would never. How does it feel to have raised a narc?
  3. The public polling reporting a narrative of Trump losing one of his two major advantages - and perhaps his most significant - and the race tightening or even tilting Trump doesn't square at all. They're obviously wrong about something, we'll see what about I guess. Good lord. I'm a millennial thank you very much. And as far as I'm concerned, this thread is unlikely to ever top that photo.
  4. Since we're discussing SCOTUS, may want to start looking at EV math without CO. GOP will absolutely attempt to have the results invalidated over this and with this court you can't assume they will act in good faith.
  5. I don't think it can be reasonably interpreted as anything else. It's an insane ruling; it won't have a notable impact on its own but it's absolutely an indicator that the GOP will be allowed to engage in any and all ratfuckery, and that the court will gladly put a thumb on the scale for them.
  6. Yeah, all good, this doesn't totally scream "the bottom has fallen out with women" or anything. Most people won't see it or will gloss over it. The person consuming enough FOX News or whatever else to actually see it reported in detail... they were never voting Harris.
  7. No, not really. The transcript of his comments is hard to understand and the right wing media outrage machine will just run with their preferred narrative as usual.
  8. The WA primary results are one of the primary copium data points. Essentially identical partisan splits to 2020.
  9. If there's a population where Trump has lost ground over the past four years it's college educated whites. That's a notably larger share of the population in TX than in GA or AZ. Texas has continued to import demos relatively unfriendly to Trump including college grads, young people, Asian people, etc. Democrats losing ground with black and latino voters is obviously not helpful in TX, but especially with the latter Texas may have been the tip of the spear there. I don't know how much more slippage we'll see. I guess what I'm saying is that it's not totally implausible based on Demographic makeup and of course the compounding negatives of Cruz and Trump that TX could fall into the same tilt R tier as GA and AZ seem destined for.
  10. For one, that is so dumb. The whole point of a 401k is tax-free growth. Even if she wanted to (she doesn't) enact that political deathwish of a policy, such legislation would never pass. For two, even if she did, you can tolerate... *gestures broadly at Trump* but not a hypothetical tax on capital gains in SWA-flying 401k?
  11. Could be referencing crosstabs of recent polls.
  12. Uh, do we know that? Plenty of former Democrats turned Cult 45 members that have never bothered to update their registration.
  13. Those are almost certainly national numbers because the idea of that many major pollsters conducting exit polls on Texas specifically is silly.
  14. The same thing that drives Trump's overperformance relative to downballot Republicans since 2016. Voter: "TRUMPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!" Does not complete rest of ballot/poll.
  15. Exactly what I would have produced if asked to sketch the perp without any additional info. Yeah, I'm sorry, historical trends from the 20th century just aren't relevant. Different world, and Trump and Cult 45 are different beasts than anything observed in that window.
  16. She's the sitting VPOTUS and is crisscrossing the country to spend time in swing states, of which TX is not one. Trump is unemployed and has kept a light campaign schedule. They are not the same and it's unreasonable for Rogan to look at them as such. Oh come on. This is weird Rogan bro shit. I generally buy the idea that it's a close race but the "coastal elite" - for lack of a better term for the corporate/political class - consensus that Trump is going to win a statistically tied race feels pretty 2016-y. I get that the financial sector positioning for a Trump win is really the only play because Kamala is essentially status quo, but still.
  17. Isn't he the guy who wrote novels about the greatness of the Tom Herman offense?
  18. This worries me quite a bit. Election Day is already ripe for violence from MAGA. If there's any sense of advantage heading into ED from the Republican side, that could be the push some of these Nazis need to go intimidate voters, or even bomb/shoot up a polling place. To say nothing of the more benign factors like bad weather, flat tire, unexpected work demands, sick kid, whatever else that can keep you from getting to the polls as planned when you reduce it to a single day.
  19. Elon admits Biden won. What a fucking cuck.
  20. WA has pretty accommodating voter laws so the folks that dropped their ballots at that location that day will have a chance to resubmit them. There's really no way to know who did, though, so it's about getting word out. My impression from my brief time as a WA resident is that Spokane is for if you are too Idaho for Seattle but not Idaho enough for Idaho. The data point is Trump +4 in Kansas is an unusually low margin for a Republican, from a pollster that has at least some recent success there. I doubt the margin actually finishes that low but the sentiment that there will be some weird results rings true. Just as the majority of Trump's gains among men of color will be in noncompetitive states where people of color actually live - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. - the country club Republican defections are likely to produce weird margins in solidly red states. Jesus Christ. This country is in a shameful place. Reason number one million and one I hope Harris wins: So the defamation lawsuit can proceed. Nevada's gone. Apologies to @Js1. They caught the white whale. Imagine being so clueless that you think there aren't women out there either avoiding the topic or nodding and smiling to avoid something between an argument with a cult member and a beating.
  21. Yeah. I don't have a lot more to say on the offensive issues that hasn't already been expressed in some way. The defense played a really strong game today. What Vanderbilt got, they earned. The defense is a nationally elite unit that will keep Texas in every game and will likely win a couple more outright like it did this one. Wish it didn't have to, but the fact that it can is pretty cool.
  22. AOC is going to smoke him and we'll be pushing for her to be installed as QB1 over the bye.
  23. Personally, I was very confident four years ago. What doubt I had was purely 2016 PTSD. Biden's lead in polls was just too wide. We got a historic polling error and he still won. I'm not at all confident of anything either way this year. I'm def not biting on the anecdata about everyone's Republican friends adding up to be this huge chunk of defections to the D side. Like everyone else, we all live in our own bubbles.
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