gmr548

Reminder that 25th-ing Biden wouldn't have done anything to his status as the presumptive nominee and would have served essentially no purpose but to sew further chaos. If it looks like bullshit, smells like bullshit...

Fun fact: Walz and Harris are the same age, born six months apart. Harris polling a point, maybe two, better than Biden and taking the conversation to flipping Texas is Surly coaching search thread energy for sure lol

Uh, you might have heard that one "side" just pushed the incumbent POTUS out of the race - unprecedented in modern history - because it was made abundantly clear to the electorate (who have in turn made themselves clear through polling) and eventually the rank and file of the party that he was not up to mounting the kind of campaign needed to win, or to governing for four more years, despite a relatively strong record in his first term. Unless you are just being intentionally disingenuous or are extremely stupid, you surely recognize that such a reckoning is unfathomable in the cult of personality known as the Republican Party. This is such a load of horseshit lol. I get you want to feel smart, edgy, above the fray, etc. but when you are consistently grading one party on a vastly different curve than the other - which is the only way to arrive at the "both sides are the same" conclusion - you've already tacitly admitted they are not in fact the same.

I mean if that has any kind of staying power and Harris can maintain something close to net neutral, the election is over. That's a pretty remarkable swing coming on the scene.

If it goes to the House, the popular vote becomes irrelevant.

This is paywalled for me but I think I miscounted anyway. 26-22-2, not 25-23-2. Nevermind then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#/media/File:118th_US_Congress_House.svg Incoming I believe, but all there is to go on right now is the current.

This is way down the rabbit hole, but currently the state delegations in the House are 25R-23D-2 Ties. What, pray tell, happens if that becomes 25 votes for Trump and 25 for Harris in the House? NC and MN are the ties FWIW.

This. Being a HC at Texas or a similar program is all-consuming. She's, what 10-20 years younger than him(?) and wants to pursue the fashion angle. I can see how things wear thin there. Hopefully it's amicable; sad, obviously, but not toxic. She will get a nice chunk of change obviously but he wasn't (or shouldn't have been) broke going into the marriage four years ago and obviously has quite a bit of guaranteed cash coming to him from UT over the next several years. Also no child support. Somehow I think he'll keep the lights on.

Echoing this last one, Kelly is just too valuable where he is. PA is so important that Shaprio is probably worth it if you think PA is so close he could actually tip it.

I guess a little excited to usher in something at least resembling generational change with Harris. Certainly the first female president would be a milestone we'd all remember. In a vacuum I'm pretty ambivalent toward Harris. She's never really done much to differentiate herself from Generic Democrat and the prosecutorial background doesn't do much for me. That's a pretty soft impression though, if she's able to clearly articulate a vision/platform there's certainly room for her to grow on me. And I'll admit, the absolute meltdown from MAGA with her assuming the Democratic nomination is worth something in its own right. In general, less excited, more motivated as many have implied; and for all the same reasons. The paragraph above is more than good enough in this case.

I guess it depends on how we define "from," as Obama was born in HI and spent most of his childhood there. Still pretty interesting though. I read it as a straight racial thing with the allusion to Obama?

I mean that may have been the case and he was just too dumb to phrase it in a way that couldn't be interperted as despotic - same with the windmill clip, for all I know it was what passes for comedy on the right and trying to mock people that think climate change is real - I just don't care. Hammer it hammer it, hammer it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/what-kamala-harris-financial-disclosure-reveals-about-her-investments.html Worth noting, Harris owns a bunch of passive index funds and pension accounts. No Pelosi or Trump like conflicts here. Might get wrecked when her 2.6% adjustable rate mortgage gets adjusted in 2027 tho. Don't know why you wouldn't have just locked in then. I may have to vote Trump over this.

This is great but the "The top ten states for new voters are the 1st-9th, and 11th most populous states" line like it was insightful was kind of funny lol Your uncle is brat.

Would like to see the figures with RFK included. In the polls I have seen, he has been more decidedly eating into Trump's support with Harris on the ballot as she seems to have brought some Biden skeptics home or at least into undecided territory.

I'm sorry, what? So for one, your contention is that we have to the left over recent decades, to the benefit of black women and presumably other racial minority and/or lower socioeconomic cohorts - which would imply a general advancement of equality in society - and that is the wrong direction? Do you just not understand the implication there? Beyond that, Said black woman is looking back at 1992 and seeing significant deterioration in reproductive rights/women's healthcare, erosion of the Voting Rights Act, multiple tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and corporations putting more of the tax burden on the working and middle class, and disinvestment in education - most of which disproportionately impact black people. So what am I missing that makes up for that and so much more to the point that the idea that the political environment has trended to the right is absurd? Show your work here. Mainstream culture has gotten more liberal, sure. Divided but probably more liberal in aggregate. That's not matched in policy at all. The policy trendline and Overton Window have pretty clearly been moving right since Reagan was elected. Not necessarily a straight line but the overall direction.

There are obviously people in this country considering voting Trump. A lot of them. He is, as it stands, still the favorite in this election. I think we've seen enough out of the GOP and its supporters to say that outright malice or gross misinformation is at the root of it for a good chunk of that group, but I don't doubt some potential Trump voters have good intentions. One might say... Some, I assume, are good people. I think those folks are making a bad choice, but that's a different conversation. I find it interesting that you've said you feel like voting conservative is the right thing to do, but feel that the country has been on the wrong track in recent decades. The trendline over that period has been to the right, save for a few social issues like legalization of marijuana and same sex marriage.

People don't care about age. They care about vibes. Trump is just as old as Biden but sounds the same as he did 8 years ago. Walz definitely does not sound or come across like a pitter pattering old.

The wild thing is that fucking a couch would be the most healthy position on sex JD Vance has ever taken.

I mean, being in the GOP at this point categorically means full loyalty to Donald Trump. Look at Haley. Made a lot, a lot of noise in the primary and ultimately offered a whole-hearted endorsement. Trump is the platform, Trump is the party. Any female with an R by their name would ultimately pass this test. It's legitimately more likely he doesn't think any of them are hot enough.

I mean, your hypothesis is a legitimate critique/concern of Harris. I couldn't tell you what the specifics are for her vision of the country because she's never really articulated that. It just so happens that 1.) Presidential elections are first and foremost personal popularity contests, and 2.) The Democratic party agenda is more popular than Joe Biden was personally - see polling on Senate races and Congressional generic ballot. Her being a relatively personable version of "Generic Democrat" may end up being a strength running against a very unpopular Donald Trump.

Fully agree with you on the cultural bit, just ribbing the poster wanting Gen X to rise up. Although, re the SSA, they also seem to use 1965: https://www.ssa.gov/open/data/EOY-Generational-Data.html I've never heard the Kennedy assassination thing but I think I like that definition in theory.

Eh, barely. Matchups make fights and when you look at then vs now it is barely comparable. 1.) The Democratic primary electorate is not the general electorate. 2.) She is running against Donald Trump as opposed to the full Democratic bench. 3.) She has since been elected to and served a term in the office of Vice President of the United States 4.) She is a woman and the political landscape for women has, uh, changed quite a bit since 2020. Yes, I think a lot of people intellectually knew it would by then (many did not though), but seeing Dobbs actually happen was something else entirely. 5.) Prosecutorial background was a tough rap in 2020. The zeitgeist on law and order has regressed to the mean since then; and again, she is running against convicted felon Donald Trump. Joe Biden was a terrible presidential candidate until he wasn't. Same for Donald Trump. Just like every championship team in sports benefits from luck over the course of a season, simply being in the right place in the right time is a major element of a successful presidential campaign. I don't know whether or not that will ultimately be the case for Harris but we've clearly seen enough to say that she might be the right person, in the right position, at the right time to win this election.

This is a little misleading because the foreign born population (best easily accessible proxy for noncitizens) of Wisconsin and NC are minimal compared to TX, and Florida has a hugely disproportionate amount of old white people.

Running an extremely successful, progressive state