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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Running an extremely successful, progressive state
  2. Kamala Harris is a boomer, technically. Born October 1964. Nancy Pelosi was integral to getting Biden to step aside, though she is actually not a boomer because she's too old lol. Born 1940. She and Biden are Silent Generation. That is exactly what is going on. I feel okay given key positions won by Democrats in the 2022 Midterms and Biden's relatively robust judicial appointment volume, but I am sure the ratfuckery will be stronger than 2020 in the event of a GOP loss.
  3. A 40% chance is essentially a tossup. As things stand now it's ridiculous to include any of those light blue states in a "floor" for Kamala Harris. You are implying she is a sure thing. Her floor is removing those four and probably NM too. I think moving from Biden to Harris probably solidifies MN, VA, and NH for Democrats but it's still an uphill battle.
  4. I can sort of get this in the abstract, but where do you think Kamala Harris is going to significantly veer from the Biden administration's policy agenda? I agree if there's a situation in a 49-51 Senate where you need to get a crossover vote or two, Biden was more likely to be able to make that happen than Harris will be. But aside from that?
  5. Honestly Kamala Harris is pretty much equal to Generic Democrat to me, I could take her or leave her compared to hypothetical candidates in this cycle or her competition in the 2020 primaries. I don't love the idea of a President with a prosecutorial background absent the contrast to Trump. But she is the obvious answer in this specific situation, and the stupid ass MAGA meltdown combined with fucking nonsense like this has me fired up.
  6. 1. lol dumbass 2. You expect me to believe Stephen Miller is not okay with pretending elections never happened?
  7. This is why it's good and y'all are looking at it wrong. Perfect really if he did. Gives the appearance of a well known challenger who no one would accuse of toeing the party line, but in reality no one likes him and Harris cruises. @Gidnik which are you? I'm thinking OP? Stupid, sad, but yes.
  8. I could see being unprepared for one of the major governors or someone out of left field... But the sitting Vice President for the 81 year old POTUS? This is the best they have after the past few weeks? I'm sure it'll fine tune but I am not impressed. Democrats can win this.
  9. 1.) What? 2.) Your base doesn't know what a good chunk of those words mean. 3.) Those that do will revert to point 1.
  10. I know that, I'm just saying I think the idea that Roy Cooper is going to be worth several points in NC is dubious. I actually do think I'd pick him though. Even assuming it does not fundamentally change the race in NC, I think he's a good a pick as any to court independent/moderates and the potential cost of picking him is the lowest. Most other names floated have a tangible downside or don't have any in-state upside. Shaprio is really the only other name I'd consider, but he's actually quite valuable as an above-replacement value Governor of PA. Holding that position is going to be absolutely vital if Harris loses in November and you want Shaprio on the ballot, without the stain of losing the state as a VP candidate.
  11. Yeah this isn't surprising. Young black men, to be specific. This group was already gravitating to Trump and having a black woman is not going to help that at all frankly. Note I'm not talking about Trump winning this subgroup outright but getting 25%-30% of the black male vote. The hope is that there's upside with youth, women, independents, and that the Democratic base - of which black women in particular are a foundational part - is energized. If that proves true it's a worthy electoral trade off. If it doesn't you were probably never winning the election anyway because those were the same groups Biden was failing to reach.
  12. I think you're making a mistake in looking at it on the basis of merit as opposed to looking at ways the GOP can engage in ratfuckery.
  13. Don't y'all get it? It's funny because she's a woman (innuendo) and black (banana) - the right is getting better at comedy!1!1!1 These people, I swear to god.
  14. Democrat have been continuously fucking up federal races in NC since Obama won in '08. My bar for thinking they would be decisive favorites there is... Quite high at this point.
  15. I think if you had an indication that Cooper makes you a prohibitive favorite in NC you do it, because that expands the map. There was no realistic scenario where NC was in play, and certainly not where it was a decisive factor. You can win PA without Shaprio, you cannot win NC without Cooper. Delivering NC also decreases the relative importance of PA in that paths to victory would then exist without the latter (though unlikely, as it is not likely to go MAGA if MI and WI do not). I am also extremely skeptical Cooper would deliver NC. VP nominees do not typically matter that much.
  16. Hmm, where have I heard this before? Ah, yes: https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3476977 Y'all need better talking points lulz 80 million people voted for Biden to be POTUS from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 and that's what we will get. Was every president prior to the 70's not democratically elected because the parties didn't give a fuck about primaries? Has every politician that's ever resigned or refused a nomination subverted the will of the voters? Next time you see lead paint chips recommended on Texags, remember you don't have to eat them just because all of your friends are.
  17. I'd say it's more like benching your veteran QB that's thrown a couple bad picks and has you down 10 in the early 4th to an inferior opponent, and trotting our your intriguing but unproven RS FR backup. Elon out here rage posting like a Surly game thread
  18. He also evidently doesn't need to, and there's no reason to give the GOP the red meat for their base - "oBuMmEr Is BeHiNd It AlL!1!1!"
  19. Well Obama can't run so I wasn't really referring to him lol. I'd love to be able to put him on the ballot. He'd hang 350 EVs on Trump.
  20. Go back to Texags. And maybe elementary school social studies while you're at it. Primaries aren't real elections and a majority of self identified Democrats have consistently expressed a preference for an alternative to Joe Biden. No one serious bothered to jump in the primary.
  21. Whitmer will not throw her hat in the ring. Honestly with this still being an underdog's position and the groundswell of support, I'd expect other headline names like Newsome or Shapiro to also do the same. Align around Harris as the best chance to beat Trump this cycle, take your shot in 2028 if she loses.
  22. I'm not saying I would lol Court cases would go through DC circuit anyway as I understand which would likely tell a challenger to pound sand. I suppose it depends on how brazen SCOTUS is feeling.
  23. The Democratic primary electorate is not the general election electorate. The party had to coalesce around Joe Biden to stop Bernie Sanders from winning a primary lol
  24. The GOP will surely challenge in court, and the GOP appointed chair of the ostensibly independent FEC is already posturing on Twitter: That said, the consensus is that Harris should be able to assume, and is the only one who could, which is a major advantage for her.
  25. These. Make no mistake it's still a long shot. In the short term it likely damages Democrats standing in the EC because she won't poll as well with seniors and whites in the midwest as Biden. It's on Democrats to now win decisively among undecides and get young voters back in the fold. It's an uphill battle but at least there's a battle to fight. Biden was mortally wounded. She's absolutely going to pay a proverbial tax as a black woman. She also opens doors that Biden clearly wasn't going to. You have to take the upside in this scenario. No. Pete is impressive but need someone with executive governing experience and ties to a relatively important state. One of the governors is the play. His name rec is way overinflated on this site for obvious reasons. Governing will be fine if Harris wins. I imagine a lot of the rank and file Biden staff will remain in place. If there's a pick I trust her specifically to make it's a Merrick Garland replacement. And it's less worrying than a Turmp admin. Yep. Go find your equivalent to Obama's... Joe Biden.
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