gmr548

This is how the American center and left should come together to put down fascism but we are a bunch of stupid concern trolls at the population level.

Still sort of TBD but the current track has Houston to the east side of the storm (stronger side). Depends on the specific hazards of his property - trees or other large items that could cause damage in winds, flooding, etc. Honestly the main concern is prolonged power outages in the aftermath. Could see hurricane force winds doing some work on power lines.

Do the gays count as DEI hires?

I was not overly concerned for the Houston area until you posted this.

Sometimes you have to give it a day or two as stream flows make it to the lake. Of course, if the rain fell mostly downstream of the lake it wouldn't have had that big of an impact. Also I know the ground is pretty dry out there; if it was a quick, intense burst there probably wasn't a ton of runoff.

This is the main reason I'm not a full doomer yet. Trump's 2 for 2 in getting 46% of the electorate. Maybe he gets to 47% this year with lower turnout. We've seen that means an extremely tight election that can go either way so my baseline hasn't changed too much and probably wouldn't with a new nominee until either 1.) Trump starts polling consistently close to 50%, especially in battleground states; or 2.) The Democratic nominee opens up a major lead (feels impossible at this point, Dems really are a mess). Trump is a favorite at this juncture. Democrats are at that stage in the game where, after fucking around with an inferior opponent for three quarters, they just gave said opponent a gift of a turnover and are staring up at a 10 point deficit on the scoreboard in the early 4th quarter. For the first time all game, the opponent's in game win prob spikes into 70%-80% territory. Democrats are the better team, they can win. But they need to turn it around and fans in the stands are feeling that the momentum (sorry Tom) is starting to trend toward that not happening. Might need the opponent to help you out a bit with a blown coverage or bad turnover or something. I wouldn't really be surprised either way.

Bold choices if you're interested in functioning democracies. Hillary wins in 2016, nothing of significance is accomplished in Congress. Reelected in 2020 despite very meh approval/favorability because the Republicans run Ted Cruz. We have like five SCOTUS justices because the Republicans simply refuse to confirm for a Democratic president and have never relinquished control of either house of Congress. I don't know who Republicans are running right now but it isn't Ron DeSantis, who still flames out in the primaries, but they are favored because Democrats are carrying the blame for a more sluggish post-COVID recovery (and inflation still escalated in a similar but maybe slightly less extreme manner that this timeline). Gavin Newsom won a lackluster but still messy Democratic primary. I don't recall him actually saying word for word he'd be a one term president, but there was definitely implication that he was a candidate to stabilize the situation and pass the baton. I get this, but if Trump wins it's the 46% of the electorate that votes for him that deserves the blame. Have you no decency, sir? Don't football the CR in the offseason. I'm here because to get away from the football and recruiting boards. This is a very weird poll. Gaining in GA, NC, WI, and MI, but a nosedive in PA does not make sense. Frankly at this moment gaining anywhere does not make sense, but especially the way it's laid out here. I'm also assuming this does not account for third parties.

Absolutely this. The debate fallout within Democratic circles has been a media feeding frenzy; they'd clearly love to keep it going. This has pissed me off a lot honestly. I get the whole Biden saga is big news but SCOTUS just minted the keys to a dictatorship for Donald Trump, who himself was a complete and total mess at the debate, and nary a word. Media is barely attempting to cover that though. The liberal mainstream media, everyone!

Yeah I'm sure the head of Judicial Watch isn't bullshitting at all.

Kelly is also a classic example of being way more fucking valuable in his Senate seat than he is as VP.

Nothing could give me more confidence in Kalama Harris than Pimphand calling her stupid.

To be fair, Democrats' support among the Midwestern white working class has collapsed. I am not worried about an old school Democrat that stayed with the party to vote for Clinton and Biden defecting when Trump is on the ballot again. It's the middle/upper middle class middle aged white voters who just don't like Harris's tone for some strange reason that I'd worry about. And seniors.

I only care if Biden drops out in that I want to see Democrats' chances of winning the White House, Senate, and House maximized, because the Republican Party has openly broadcast its desire to establish a fascist dictatorship. I have not seen a ton of evidence that Biden dropping would advance that cause; although polling coming out this week, as the media has negligently and relentlessly focused on Biden's debate performance above any and all other stories, has now maybe started to suggest that. Lots of polling has indicated that a majority of voters, including independents and even Democrats, want Biden to not run. That's great, but we all know when you start identifying alternatives as opposed to the idea of a generic replacement, support plummets. This is evidenced by other options polling essentially the same. So in that sense I am somewhat agnostic. If it becomes clear to me that Biden stepping aside meaningfully increases win probability then I'd be all for it, I'm just unconvinced that it does, even now. Kamala Harris is in all likelihood the nominee if that happens. Base your takes about whether you think Biden should step down accordingly. She is logistically by far the smoothest option and was elected by the people of the United States of America to be the next (wo)man up if, God forbid, the need ever arose. There is no reasonable argument from within the Democratic Party other than "eh, I just don't like her;" which sets off a shit show of a contested convention that I have no doubt Democrats would find a way to bungle. If Biden does step aside, Harris's candidacy is a political damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Obviously there are undecideds/independents willing to give Democrats a second look with a younger candidate. However, we saw a black president break a good chunk of white America's brains and we see similarly inspired posts in this very thread discussing her candidacy. I have a hard time thinking a black woman retains the support in the suburbs and among white seniors that Joe Biden has, nor is she likely to be significantly additive when it comes to black and latino men. Conversely, black women are an integral part of the Democratic base and passing over a black woman who is very literally heir to the throne is not going to go over well. I don't know how much she nets over Biden, if anything. Gavin Newsom exudes rich, California limousine liberal. While I think he is very good in interviews, and is clearly a sharp guy, and has a decent policy record, that will be the message and it will stick with receipts like the French laundry debacle. He will be a non starter in middle America. Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro at least bring the potential to shore up key states, but see the point above about passing over Harris and the reaction from black women in the base. Whitmer also has to deal with the burden of being a woman. Shapiro probably has the shortest list of negatives, but as just a two year Governor of PA, we don't know what we don't know in terms of vetting. And I frankly struggle to see the Democratic Party passing on a sitting VP for a two-year Governor. Anyone else is small time and not worth considering.

I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.

The "most of the electorate thinks Biden is old as hell - too old to be POTUS - and saw exactly what they expected from both candidates" is really the one line of cope I tend to buy. And the media tailspin surrounding it screams Beltway bubble bursting. NYT is a great example. I don't necessarily think today's NYT story on Biden is bad reporting, but running with that as the top story and the complete saturation of Biden takes in its editorial section over the fucking bender SCOTUS has been on over the past two business days is a choice that signifies their worldview just got rocked.

If by "this race" you mean her career as a Nashville influencer then sure

The only silver lining is there has been zero expression of anything like "hey Trump was not so bad!" Focus groups and anecdotal evidence point toward people just thinking we are turbofucked.

Failed statistics, eh?

Accepting this assumption for aske of argument, am I supposed to think the DNC is not prone to handwringing?

They got the nomination because supermajorities of participating voters selected them in the primaries. There was never serious opposition to either candidate. Sentiments like these are reflections of the electorate, ultimately, not the candidates.

Anyway, I didn't watch last night because I don't hate myself. It sounds like the only thing that could have happened to move the needle - Biden looking old, tired, etc. - happened. This will mostly fade away and people will revert to their baseline stances as typically happens with these debates; but the 1-2 point bump Biden got from Trump's conviction is likely gone. And in an election this close that could be decisive. The replace Biden conversation should have been had a year ago if anyone was serious about it. Now it's just handwringing. Regardless of how anyone feels, we're past the point of no return.

Jesus Christ, put a trigger warning on this shit.

Every accusation is a confession with these people.

Yeah this is the only thing that could move the needle in this debate. Trump's mic being muted is a godsend for Trump. Without a bad soundbite/video clip, Biden will win the debate handily and it will not matter one bit.