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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Phew. Now that you've posted this take I feel better about Democratic prospects than I have this entire election cycle.
  2. PredictIt is predominantly white men, which is the one thoroughly conservative demographic subgroup. Right wing conspriacies always have outsized odds on there. See Michelle Obama consistently getting traction.
  3. Nashville is MAGA Los Angeles. Y'all have fun at that Vanderbilt game.
  4. lol there is no way Trump leads in metro Detroit (the sentence could end here), where Biden won by 400k votes with a 60% overall vote share, and only leads the state by marginally more. That implies Biden is at a near standstill in the other half of the state, where he was comparatively beaten soundly.
  5. Honestly this shit might make me vote for Trump on the burn it all down train
  6. I genuinely do not think Biden is running if Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis or whoever is the GOP nominee. I think it's personal to him with Trump on the ballot.
  7. No it isn't. Removing a nominee is not deposing a leader; they are a political party and can run who they want. The voters will pick the President. Also, Biden can simply run the clock out on them if he holds on, unless there is such overwhelming support for removing him that they literally change their own rules to do so an install a new nominee by applicable deadlines.
  8. It is interesting that Bernstein is basically Joe Biden's age; Biden is less than 18 months older. You can't get a concussion when your brain is already mush
  9. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/19/pelosi-support-open-nomination-biden-drop-out-00169893 Pelosi, always in lock step with the big money, and the CA caucus evidently want an open primary. Supposedly many in this group support Harris anyway but want to avoid the image of a coronation where the party bosses just picked the candidate. I respect Nancy Pelosi as a political mind but the idea that people would not already have that impression after donors and elected officials essentially staged a post-primary revolt is, uh, something. Of course, maybe she is right to just insult the intelligence of the American voter. Works for Republicans. Democrats are really going to pull this shit, end up with Andy Beshear, and hemorrhage black voters for real, aren't they?
  10. I think I'd proceed with Harris if I was crowned king for a day at this point, but the whole contested convention, mini primary thing has always been dumb and just sticking with Biden has always been a better option than that. A quick transition to Harris is the only viable alternative that does not involve the Democratic Party smearing considerably more shit all over itself than it already has and dooming its electoral prospects in the prospects.
  11. No it's not. This entire saga is about whether Biden should run for another term.
  12. Regardless of this decision, Joe Biden should not resign the Presidency. The VP job needs to be occupied and that's really all there is to it. But especially consider that Biden and his team can just lock in on judicial appointments for four months while Harris campaigns. She will have no shortage of media coverage campaigning as a sitting VP after an unprecedented (in modern times anyway) ticket change. Contrast that with Kamala Harris having to govern with no VP while also running for President. No thanks.
  13. The RNC will not meaningfully improve Trump's standing. He'll get a 1-2 point convention polling bounce that will dissipate. No one watches these things except devoted partisans and political junkies, he spoke very late at night and was not particularly impressive. The WNBA outdrew JD Vance's acceptance speech, for context.
  14. Nate Silver is legitimately a very good modeler/forecaster but he has some really out-there takes sometimes. Will Tom Homan put a piss chart in the White House bathrooms? I've been kind of wishy washy throughout this whole saga but I think I am landing on these. It's clear form where AOC and other progressive lawmakers have stood that this push is more about self preservation and/or placating donors for centrist candidates. And AOC is correct in pointing out Biden's electoral strengths; the part of the Biden coalition that has held up is overrepresented in the most critical EC states. You can go a long way with black voters and educated/older white voters in the Rust Belt. Too be fair, AOC and most progressives occupy comfortably safe seats; the incentives are different. I get it. It does feel a little dirty, though. Biden does not necessarily deserve this - although if he and his team have been making such comprehensive efforts to conceal Biden's ability to be present in the job, the blame is ultimately in the mirror. I believe it's a self-fulfilling prophecy now. The Biden campaign is mortally wounded. I don't see a path; fair or not, the age thing and fractures within the party are going to sink him if he is on the ballot in November. Harris cannot be bypassed though. I don't even say that as a particularly strong supporter of hers. Black leaders - and the black voters that make up a very large portion of the Democratic primary electorate - have made it cleat they stand behind Biden; and that if he is to step aside, Harris needs to be the alternative. The black community is simply too important to the Democratic Party and has contributed too much to the current Democratic control of the White House and Senate to ratfuck them like that, let alone the obvious, warranted implication of institutional racism that would come from forcing both the black community's preferred candidate and the actual black candidate out for whatever other less qualified candidate emerges from a largely white consensus. Not to mention the Democratic Party's ability to execute that without further self-harming is questionable at best.
  15. The media headlines are irresponsibly glossing over the countless lies, hour-long incoherent rant, and divisive rhetoric. The WSJ and CNN of all outlets seem to be making the best effort to report honestly, at least mentioning Trump's shift in tone. They just want to report on a supposed pivot. Barely anyone will have watched this speech - the WNBA outdrew the RNC last night - certainly not the whole thing, late as it went. People's impressions, to the degree that they have them, will be based on the media's characterization, and they appear eager to prop Trump up. https://www.washingtonpost.com/ https://www.nytimes.com/ https://www.npr.org/ https://www.wsj.com/ https://www.cnn.com/
  16. Recently relocated to the liberal hellscape of Seattle. Am dead.
  17. Unless he was shot at the first day he came onto the political scene then no. This is pretty standard Trump rally fare.
  18. They probably did overdo it a bit - cool thing about not being in a cult, you can admit when the party you generally support has a misstep - but it showed they learned from understimulating and having a prolonged recovery ala the first half of the 2010's. A smaller package probably would have been really threading the needle, but what we got was better than not doing anything. Inflation in the US was generally milder, sometimes much more so, than the rest of the world, and wages have risen even more. It is hard to be perfect but any reasonable person acting in good faith with the best interest of the country in mind would have taken this economic outcome if offered in 2021.
  19. NYT reported the teleprompter was off 20 mins ago lmao
  20. It's midnight eastern lmao. They really told him "just read the prompter and do the act for the first 20 mins. People will turn it off, go to bed, and you can be Grampa Simpson until you pass out!"
  21. But really though, how does this have anything to do with how you live your life? You don't have to buy into a party's entire platform 100%, but this is the only issue you've named after making a point to note you are a Republican. So if you're not into "Mass Deportation Now!" but the GOP's stance on immigration is what is driving your vote, what do you believe? Presumably the bill passed by the Democratic Senate and supported by President Biden after negotiations with Republicans and was only killed because Trump said he wanted to run on the issue did not go far enough, so what would? I'm really not here to fling shit at you, all my "fighting with strangers on the internet" energy is saved for Democratic dysfunction and people that think Jake Majors might get benched. But you're the one who made a point to twist yourself into a pretzel here. Just think is all I'm saying.
  22. For example... Guys. They had "Mass Deportation Now" signs. When people tell you who they are, believe them. Alright this is an outstanding bit
  23. I don't always like their takes but this speech is exactly what the Pod Save America guys said it would be: it was not a complete restart after the assassination as advertised. They tried to pin some unity rhetoric and theatrics related to the front and probably the end of the speech, and left all the normal Trumpy nonsense in the middle. Add to that you have a profoundly stupid, 78 year old man with a famously short attention span delivering a speech past 10pm and counting, and, well, yeah. Also I'm not here to fling poo but good god man, really think about your vote.
  24. Lol I'm convinced this is a bit. No way a Trumper could talk about unwarranted stimulus with a straight face.
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