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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. I think he's trying to pivot to the JD Vance defense, which is still bullshit but more articulate, but he's a 78 or whatever year old with mush brains and can't do it
  2. I mean, yeah, he should be doing due diligence.
  3. Icono is either a very good troll or needs to be reported to the FBI. That's the headline.
  4. It would be malpractice for him not to try to be prepared for a Trump administration.
  5. I heard on some podcast or news report or something that the speech is supposedly 90 mins. I assume that is wrong because it would be absurd, but if anyone could...
  6. You are watching a cult leader speak to a cult. I genuinely don't know that this will play well outside the 46%.
  7. "Today is the day Donald Trump truly became President of the United States. For realises this time. I promise." - The "liberal" media
  8. Something to keep in mind - Trump speaking at 10:30 pm EST was likely designed to keep his speech out of the limelight, because you have to be really invested in politics to stay up and watch it.
  9. Honestly, probably. We all bite now and then.
  10. What is success? Only extreme ideologues, partisans, and political junkies watch these things. They do not matter, especially these days. If you mean it was personally successful for you in that you were able to gargle a previously unfathomable amount of GOP balls, I love that for you.
  11. At the core of Trumpism, to the degree that there is such a thing, are his views on immigration and trade, along with orthodox Republican tax and regulatory cuts for the rich and corporations. His 10% tariffs and anything approaching mass deportation would make the post-COVID inflationary cycle look like child's play. He proposed the visas for degrees while pandering to tech money. He is willing to make that proposal because 1.) He'll tell anyone what they want to hear to get what he needs out of them; and 2.) He views IT workers much differently that the clearly racially motivated vitriol he has for migrants from Latin America. The visas for degrees bit is also bad policy that would actually accelerate the displacement of American workers in a way brown people coming across the border never has. If Trump follows his beliefs we will experience a recession on par with 2008-10, if not worse.
  12. Think of it this way: I mean, for fuck's sake, a board of Texas fans should understand the damage a backup QB can inflict.
  13. It'd also be a legitimate governance problem. Both houses of Congress have to approve a VP appointment. GOP House isn't appointing shit. So now we're operating with no VP, meaning among other things there's no one to break 50-50 ties on things like judicial votes that need to be passed the rest of the term, and Mike Johnson a heartbeat from the Presidency. And it's just a look of dysfunction. No thank you. Biden and team can govern, Kamala can campaign full time. She'd need to focus on that anyway.
  14. I'd also add that there being a slice of racists or misogynists in the electorate is not an inherent reason to not go forward with a mixed race, female nominee. That's "letting the terrorists win" so to speak. You go out in a sprint campaign that just got a shot in the arm, draw a contrast with Trump, and win over the ~10% of voters still undecided. If 30% of them break GOP due to a nonwhite woman on the ballot, you need to make sure you get the other 70%.
  15. On the undecided bit I am with you. I think there's a small but nontrivial chunk of voters that will move from D to R, or break from undecided to R, over race/gender. They are mostly men and mostly older. That's why I've mentioned my base case is that Kamala Harris, should she be the nominee, might be a half step back in horse race polling in the blue wall states in the short term. Not enough out there to really say though. It's possible likely gains among women, POC, and youth overcome that. I just don't buy a major defection from women given the widening split among men and women politically. In particular with younger voters. "Not another black president!" will sadly be a thing but 99% of those people are already proudly supporting Trump.
  16. Immigration, especially for CA but a major factor for TX too. Though neither state lights the world on fire in K-12 education.
  17. That seems like a major investment in improving the place.
  18. Yeah, I take that Newsmax reporter with a massive grain of salt.
  19. I tend to think the vast majority of those voters are voting blue no matter who. By definition, the anti-Trump vote is driven by...Trump, not the other guy/gal. Some, primarily men, will likely break off due to race and/or gender. I doubt you ultimately see a major white woman defection. This is a very different country for women than it was 8 years ago, as youl obviously well know, and the electorate has changed. The entire 18-25 cohort couldn't even vote in 2016. Most under 30's couldn't or didn't. Millions of older voters have died since then. Less white, on balance. There has not been a decades-long coordinated right wing media onslaught building hatred of Kamala Harris nationally like there was for Hillary Clinton.
  20. This would be such a fucking mess. Biden should absolutely not resign though. It is dumb to even float that.
  21. There's a legitimate argument to be made that Kamala Harris is a net negative in the blue wall states as things currently stand, and her success would rest on getting a decisive victory among those currently undecided/considering not voting/parking protest votes with West or Stein, and that doing so as a quasi-incumbent would be difficult. Her odds are still long, but there's at least upside. It is really hard to imagine undecides breaking for Biden in a meaningful way at this point.
  22. I don't know how anyone could bemoan the Democratic Party's handling of this entire saga and expect a brokered convention to be anything but an enormous mess at the same time.
  23. Jesus. Yes, that's the point, the lack of national name recognition for Shapiro is not as big of a deal because he is well known and liked in Pennsylvania. You may have heard that the results in PA are somewhat important in this election given the Electoral College implications. To the extent that a VP moves the needle, and I don't think it's very much, that is a value add over the Governor of KY who is a JAG in the minds of undecided voters in swing states. I tend to agree. The Biden administration has been the most progressive in my lifetime and governed in a much more progressive manner than I, and I think most of the progressive wing of the party, expected. I think this is why the progressive wing of the party is pretty quiet when it comes to calling for him to go. That and they mostly represent relatively safe seats with little incentive to participate in this spectacle at all. Yeah I remember there being a bit of a "will he or won't he" speculation in political circles and he has said himself on several occasions that he did not feel ready or able to mount a successful campaign. A bit of irony really given the relative lack of self awareness now.
  24. The right wing media appluads your ability to quote completely out of context. What I said was, "Shaprio has high name recognition and approval in a must-have state for Democrats." Do you live in PA? Uh, gonna need to show your work on a VP moving a state 10 points lol
  25. Newsom's profile as a rich, California limousine liberal won't play well in the midwest and Warnock has maybe the highest value over replacement level of any US Senator. Brian Kemp would also appoint his replacement, which would guarantee a Republican Senate in 2025. I think Warnock would be a great POTUS candidate someday if he has that aspiration. He is far too valuable in the Senate to ask him to walk the plank as the VP on a longshot ticket. Complete nonstarter strategically. See above and the same is true for Mark Kelly, though at lease a Democrat would be appointed to replace him. Too valuable in his Senate seat though. He is well liked in one of the closest split states in the union. There are other compelling choices without that downside. The fuck does Andy Beshear bring to the ticket? I promise you 75% of America has no idea who that is. Shaprio has high name recognition and approval in a must-have state for Democrats. I might go with a Roy Cooper because he's term limited anyway and also from a competitive state (a black POTUS candidate and Roy Cooper might actually put NC and to a lesser extent GA back in play). But to the extent that a VP can add something (generally not much), Shaprio checks that box. This is the one person who can get all rank and file Democratic voters in line. Pelosi can whip the elected officials but voters don't care.
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