Jump to content

gmr548

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    14823
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Eh, barely. Matchups make fights and when you look at then vs now it is barely comparable. 1.) The Democratic primary electorate is not the general electorate. 2.) She is running against Donald Trump as opposed to the full Democratic bench. 3.) She has since been elected to and served a term in the office of Vice President of the United States 4.) She is a woman and the political landscape for women has, uh, changed quite a bit since 2020. Yes, I think a lot of people intellectually knew it would by then (many did not though), but seeing Dobbs actually happen was something else entirely. 5.) Prosecutorial background was a tough rap in 2020. The zeitgeist on law and order has regressed to the mean since then; and again, she is running against convicted felon Donald Trump. Joe Biden was a terrible presidential candidate until he wasn't. Same for Donald Trump. Just like every championship team in sports benefits from luck over the course of a season, simply being in the right place in the right time is a major element of a successful presidential campaign. I don't know whether or not that will ultimately be the case for Harris but we've clearly seen enough to say that she might be the right person, in the right position, at the right time to win this election.
  2. This is a little misleading because the foreign born population (best easily accessible proxy for noncitizens) of Wisconsin and NC are minimal compared to TX, and Florida has a hugely disproportionate amount of old white people.
  3. Running an extremely successful, progressive state
  4. Kamala Harris is a boomer, technically. Born October 1964. Nancy Pelosi was integral to getting Biden to step aside, though she is actually not a boomer because she's too old lol. Born 1940. She and Biden are Silent Generation. That is exactly what is going on. I feel okay given key positions won by Democrats in the 2022 Midterms and Biden's relatively robust judicial appointment volume, but I am sure the ratfuckery will be stronger than 2020 in the event of a GOP loss.
  5. A 40% chance is essentially a tossup. As things stand now it's ridiculous to include any of those light blue states in a "floor" for Kamala Harris. You are implying she is a sure thing. Her floor is removing those four and probably NM too. I think moving from Biden to Harris probably solidifies MN, VA, and NH for Democrats but it's still an uphill battle.
  6. I can sort of get this in the abstract, but where do you think Kamala Harris is going to significantly veer from the Biden administration's policy agenda? I agree if there's a situation in a 49-51 Senate where you need to get a crossover vote or two, Biden was more likely to be able to make that happen than Harris will be. But aside from that?
  7. Honestly Kamala Harris is pretty much equal to Generic Democrat to me, I could take her or leave her compared to hypothetical candidates in this cycle or her competition in the 2020 primaries. I don't love the idea of a President with a prosecutorial background absent the contrast to Trump. But she is the obvious answer in this specific situation, and the stupid ass MAGA meltdown combined with fucking nonsense like this has me fired up.
  8. 1. lol dumbass 2. You expect me to believe Stephen Miller is not okay with pretending elections never happened?
  9. This is why it's good and y'all are looking at it wrong. Perfect really if he did. Gives the appearance of a well known challenger who no one would accuse of toeing the party line, but in reality no one likes him and Harris cruises. @Gidnik which are you? I'm thinking OP? Stupid, sad, but yes.
  10. I could see being unprepared for one of the major governors or someone out of left field... But the sitting Vice President for the 81 year old POTUS? This is the best they have after the past few weeks? I'm sure it'll fine tune but I am not impressed. Democrats can win this.
  11. 1.) What? 2.) Your base doesn't know what a good chunk of those words mean. 3.) Those that do will revert to point 1.
  12. I know that, I'm just saying I think the idea that Roy Cooper is going to be worth several points in NC is dubious. I actually do think I'd pick him though. Even assuming it does not fundamentally change the race in NC, I think he's a good a pick as any to court independent/moderates and the potential cost of picking him is the lowest. Most other names floated have a tangible downside or don't have any in-state upside. Shaprio is really the only other name I'd consider, but he's actually quite valuable as an above-replacement value Governor of PA. Holding that position is going to be absolutely vital if Harris loses in November and you want Shaprio on the ballot, without the stain of losing the state as a VP candidate.
  13. Yeah this isn't surprising. Young black men, to be specific. This group was already gravitating to Trump and having a black woman is not going to help that at all frankly. Note I'm not talking about Trump winning this subgroup outright but getting 25%-30% of the black male vote. The hope is that there's upside with youth, women, independents, and that the Democratic base - of which black women in particular are a foundational part - is energized. If that proves true it's a worthy electoral trade off. If it doesn't you were probably never winning the election anyway because those were the same groups Biden was failing to reach.
  14. I think you're making a mistake in looking at it on the basis of merit as opposed to looking at ways the GOP can engage in ratfuckery.
  15. Don't y'all get it? It's funny because she's a woman (innuendo) and black (banana) - the right is getting better at comedy!1!1!1 These people, I swear to god.
  16. Democrat have been continuously fucking up federal races in NC since Obama won in '08. My bar for thinking they would be decisive favorites there is... Quite high at this point.
  17. I think if you had an indication that Cooper makes you a prohibitive favorite in NC you do it, because that expands the map. There was no realistic scenario where NC was in play, and certainly not where it was a decisive factor. You can win PA without Shaprio, you cannot win NC without Cooper. Delivering NC also decreases the relative importance of PA in that paths to victory would then exist without the latter (though unlikely, as it is not likely to go MAGA if MI and WI do not). I am also extremely skeptical Cooper would deliver NC. VP nominees do not typically matter that much.
  18. Hmm, where have I heard this before? Ah, yes: https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3476977 Y'all need better talking points lulz 80 million people voted for Biden to be POTUS from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 and that's what we will get. Was every president prior to the 70's not democratically elected because the parties didn't give a fuck about primaries? Has every politician that's ever resigned or refused a nomination subverted the will of the voters? Next time you see lead paint chips recommended on Texags, remember you don't have to eat them just because all of your friends are.
  19. I'd say it's more like benching your veteran QB that's thrown a couple bad picks and has you down 10 in the early 4th to an inferior opponent, and trotting our your intriguing but unproven RS FR backup. Elon out here rage posting like a Surly game thread
  20. He also evidently doesn't need to, and there's no reason to give the GOP the red meat for their base - "oBuMmEr Is BeHiNd It AlL!1!1!"
  21. Well Obama can't run so I wasn't really referring to him lol. I'd love to be able to put him on the ballot. He'd hang 350 EVs on Trump.
  22. Go back to Texags. And maybe elementary school social studies while you're at it. Primaries aren't real elections and a majority of self identified Democrats have consistently expressed a preference for an alternative to Joe Biden. No one serious bothered to jump in the primary.
  23. Whitmer will not throw her hat in the ring. Honestly with this still being an underdog's position and the groundswell of support, I'd expect other headline names like Newsome or Shapiro to also do the same. Align around Harris as the best chance to beat Trump this cycle, take your shot in 2028 if she loses.
  24. I'm not saying I would lol Court cases would go through DC circuit anyway as I understand which would likely tell a challenger to pound sand. I suppose it depends on how brazen SCOTUS is feeling.
  25. The Democratic primary electorate is not the general election electorate. The party had to coalesce around Joe Biden to stop Bernie Sanders from winning a primary lol
×
×
  • Create New...