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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. I mean this is basically dollars on sale for 86 cents. With the existing timetable there is zero chance of a replacement outside of Harris.
  2. Everyone on about how he is going to help in the blue wall states as if being a Senator from Ohio with an OSU degree is not going to cost the Trump/Vance ticket a full point in Michigan lol
  3. PlanB in her breakfast is going to be banned soon tho
  4. A real housewife of Pensacola, I think?
  5. There's obviously a lot of Christofascist bullshit in that document but this one managed to stand out: "the average length of same-sex marriages is half that of heterosexual marriages" Do we think there might be some explanation for that other than inherently "higher levels of instability"? I mean, these people are insulting the intelligence of the American public by having their manifesto publicly accessible, and they are on their way to being proven right for doing so.
  6. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/upshot/kamala-harris-biden-poll.html There's not a lot of data out there but the recent NYT poll of PA and VA does show some senior and white non-college movement toward Trump when Biden is replaced with Harris. No movement among men, but given Harris's gain among minority and younger voters it probably implies at least some defection among white men, particularly older ones and non-educated ones. These are likely the voters being referred to. That said it's worth noting that this poll does have Harris performing a couple points better overall. Sample size of one poll, though.
  7. lol the same thread basically gets repeated when Texas is at or near the top of the list in recent years. I don't really have anything to add beyond what I've posted in previous versions but it is funny to see it relitigated.
  8. This is at the root of my previous post on Harris, really. I'd expect older/whiter voters currently keeping Biden in at least striking distance would see some shifts to not voting or to Trump if a black woman is on the ticket. The be clear, I don't think the potential of racism influencing a small portion of the electorate is a reason to not go with the higher upside candidate; but it would give me pause when it comes to handicapping her chances at victory. On the topic of race, Split Ticket just dropped an interesting poll and analysis of black voters in swing states: https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/17/we-polled-black-voters-heres-what-we-found/
  9. There is a slight caveat to this - there's a decent amount of polling data that shows Biden's support has held up better with older and whiter voters. I haven't seen enough polling on Harris to say but it stands to reason she could be at a net neutral and maybe giving some ground in the EC because she'd shed support from white and/or seniors while maybe bringing some youths and POC, particularly black voters, back into the fold. PA, MI, and WI are all older/whiter than the broader electorate, hence Harris potentially losing a small slice of current Biden supporters and expanding the structural EC deficit. I still think I'd give her the shot because she also presumably gets the previously undecided/"double haters" to give Democrats a second look, and a decisive win there actually gives you a competitive chance to get across the finish line.
  10. Upper deck is better at the Cotton Bowl anyway. I got mine the other day. Feels like it's earlier than usual this year.
  11. This is where I think legitimate alarm crosses the line into typical Democratic handwringing. Senate candidates have been and continue to outperform Biden in polls, often significantly. Democrats Trump is not a beloved figure that is going to have super strong coattails; his record is just the opposite. The Democrats mathematically cannot win the Senate without winning the presidency anyway. Democrats have been seeing increased support in the generic House ballot and could benefit from a likely popular desire to have a check on Trump. Biden sinking is obviously not good for downballot Dems, but it's not apocalyptic. And as a segway, Democrats should be absolutely plowing money into the House right now. They have to flip it. A Trump presidency is bad anyway and honestly thy can inflict the majority of their planned damage to this country through executive action and judicial confirmations in the Senate. But a trifecta is the actual end of democracy scenario.
  12. I mean the path is whatever the DNC/Democratic Party wants it to be. It's not like this requires passing legislation. They can do what they want. If 100% of the party, or close enough to it, were unified around replacing Biden as the nominee they would do so. There does not appear to be anything approaching broad consensus on taking action. That is the hurdle.
  13. The collective IQ in this entire scene is astonishingly low.
  14. He's not reading wrong, he is a disingenuous concern troll.
  15. I mean given his track record on the topic it is hardly a leap of logic. Simple cause and effect really. Observing and understanding that is different from being happy about it. The positions of... "I wish this never happened. Political violence is terrible for the country, an escalation like this is tragic and will only lead to more and more violence and toxicity, where more and more innocent people are hurt or killed." and... "Trump has been calling for violence to be carried out against political opponents and unsympathetic to say the least when it has happened throughout the entirety of his political career. I am not glad it happened but do not feel any personal sympathy for him." ... are not mutually exclusive.
  16. We'll just have to see how it plays out because it's unprecedented in the modern environment, but I expect it will result in a modest but tangible rally around Trump. Some will buy the GOP's cries about the big, bad, radical left (which, I mean, the fucking gall to not only lie outright but ignore their own record - but it will work to a degree because for whatever reason we grade these two parties on different scales as a society), some will gravitate out of sympathy or the perceived law and order stance from the Trump/GOP platform. The polarization of the day will likely make this effect relatively limited but even another point or two shift toward Trump about wraps this thing up. Especially given the impact will be most pronounced in PA, without which Biden has zero chance of winning. At this point I do not see a path to victory for Biden.
  17. Negged for spreading disinformation
  18. I have no idea if this is true - it would be dumb of them simply from a PR perspective - but if so: Wealthy southern white kids are Republicans, news at 11. I'd have guessed that if asked to pick. Yeah, same. I think part of it is that: 1.) We're desensitized to crazy shit as a society; 2.) No one really wants to talk about it, whether that's not knowing what to say, not wanting to raise the temperature, or being scared; and 3.) I mean, at the end of the day it was a miss and he appears to be fine. The shooter is dead. There isn't much to talk about now. FBI needs to investigate and we'll see what the impact on the election is (I suspect it was just delivered to Trump). Simmering low grade violence across the country. Increasing attacks on political figures, journalists, schools/universities, churches, businesses in heavily partisan areas, etc. This will likely come disproportionately from MAGA given both 1.) They are generally more inclined and enthusiastic about it, and better armed; and 2.) They will have institutional support from the feds and GOP state governments. Society doesn't completely collapse - that's not profitable, after all - but starts to resemble Mexico or Brazil more than Europe, Canada, Japan/Korea, or AUS/NZ.
  19. Of course the Secret Service fucked up. I was responding to a post speculating that it could be intentional, which is a ridiculous idea and frankly irresponsible in a moment like this.
  20. Jesus Christ. The Secret Service is known to be full of Trump supporters, they did not intentionally leave an opening to have him shot at. Never assume malice for what can be explained by incompetence.
  21. Absolutely this. Escalating political violence is another box checked on the failed state checklist. I fucking loathe Donald Trump but political violence is abjectly terrible for this country or any other. There will be insane conspiracies that get propagated in the information vacuum. There will be violent responses and more innocent people will die. Politically, Donald Trump will benefit from a rally around the flag effect. His second term will now be even more vengeful and harm even more people. This will go down as a disastrous day in the history of this county. Also I have seen false flag conspriacies floating around. That is patently absurd. Yes, I acknowledge it's a staple of the fascist playbook; but there's a zero percent team Trump could pull that off given the scrutiny this will be under from independent law enforcement in the form of the Secret Service and FBI. Some fucking lunatic just made him a martyr, played right into the hands of the fascist movement. This country is done. Going out to enjoy a nice summer evening in a free society while we can. And for the record, I am glad he is okay. You never, ever want to see this happen. God fucking damn it.
  22. Their forecast is strongly weighted by fundamentals like economic data, historical partisan lean, etc. The median of their forecast is a full four percentage points to the left of their own polling average. As we get closer to election day that weight will wain, and if the polling remains a stable but narrow Trump lead as it has for the entirely of this year, Trump will be a decisive favorite. I suppose we'll see but I think it's clear based on how people are feeling on the economy that Biden is not going to get the same kind of "fundamentals" boost that an incumbent in his position would traditionally enjoy with this economic data. I fucking loathe the "undemocratic" argument, it's disingenuous and frankly Trumpian for Biden and his camp to trot it out there. Primaries are not real elections. Like 10% of the electorate participates and it's the most ideological and committed partisans. Parties are also private organizations. Ain't shit about them in the constitution. They can do what they want to select their candidates. Were presidents before Nixon not democratically elected? Because primaries have only been in any binding in the past 50 years. And of course, as this post mentions, a primary with an incumbent president is not a serious contest.
  23. Because Trump is teflon as a cult leader and this country can't think critically. I agree there's a definite difference, anyone who doesn't is being willfully ignorant or just has forgotten Trump, but above all the focus needs to be on holding the White House.
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