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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. For example... Guys. They had "Mass Deportation Now" signs. When people tell you who they are, believe them. Alright this is an outstanding bit
  2. I don't always like their takes but this speech is exactly what the Pod Save America guys said it would be: it was not a complete restart after the assassination as advertised. They tried to pin some unity rhetoric and theatrics related to the front and probably the end of the speech, and left all the normal Trumpy nonsense in the middle. Add to that you have a profoundly stupid, 78 year old man with a famously short attention span delivering a speech past 10pm and counting, and, well, yeah. Also I'm not here to fling poo but good god man, really think about your vote.
  3. Lol I'm convinced this is a bit. No way a Trumper could talk about unwarranted stimulus with a straight face.
  4. I think he's trying to pivot to the JD Vance defense, which is still bullshit but more articulate, but he's a 78 or whatever year old with mush brains and can't do it
  5. I mean, yeah, he should be doing due diligence.
  6. Icono is either a very good troll or needs to be reported to the FBI. That's the headline.
  7. It would be malpractice for him not to try to be prepared for a Trump administration.
  8. I heard on some podcast or news report or something that the speech is supposedly 90 mins. I assume that is wrong because it would be absurd, but if anyone could...
  9. You are watching a cult leader speak to a cult. I genuinely don't know that this will play well outside the 46%.
  10. "Today is the day Donald Trump truly became President of the United States. For realises this time. I promise." - The "liberal" media
  11. Something to keep in mind - Trump speaking at 10:30 pm EST was likely designed to keep his speech out of the limelight, because you have to be really invested in politics to stay up and watch it.
  12. Honestly, probably. We all bite now and then.
  13. What is success? Only extreme ideologues, partisans, and political junkies watch these things. They do not matter, especially these days. If you mean it was personally successful for you in that you were able to gargle a previously unfathomable amount of GOP balls, I love that for you.
  14. At the core of Trumpism, to the degree that there is such a thing, are his views on immigration and trade, along with orthodox Republican tax and regulatory cuts for the rich and corporations. His 10% tariffs and anything approaching mass deportation would make the post-COVID inflationary cycle look like child's play. He proposed the visas for degrees while pandering to tech money. He is willing to make that proposal because 1.) He'll tell anyone what they want to hear to get what he needs out of them; and 2.) He views IT workers much differently that the clearly racially motivated vitriol he has for migrants from Latin America. The visas for degrees bit is also bad policy that would actually accelerate the displacement of American workers in a way brown people coming across the border never has. If Trump follows his beliefs we will experience a recession on par with 2008-10, if not worse.
  15. Think of it this way: I mean, for fuck's sake, a board of Texas fans should understand the damage a backup QB can inflict.
  16. It'd also be a legitimate governance problem. Both houses of Congress have to approve a VP appointment. GOP House isn't appointing shit. So now we're operating with no VP, meaning among other things there's no one to break 50-50 ties on things like judicial votes that need to be passed the rest of the term, and Mike Johnson a heartbeat from the Presidency. And it's just a look of dysfunction. No thank you. Biden and team can govern, Kamala can campaign full time. She'd need to focus on that anyway.
  17. I'd also add that there being a slice of racists or misogynists in the electorate is not an inherent reason to not go forward with a mixed race, female nominee. That's "letting the terrorists win" so to speak. You go out in a sprint campaign that just got a shot in the arm, draw a contrast with Trump, and win over the ~10% of voters still undecided. If 30% of them break GOP due to a nonwhite woman on the ballot, you need to make sure you get the other 70%.
  18. On the undecided bit I am with you. I think there's a small but nontrivial chunk of voters that will move from D to R, or break from undecided to R, over race/gender. They are mostly men and mostly older. That's why I've mentioned my base case is that Kamala Harris, should she be the nominee, might be a half step back in horse race polling in the blue wall states in the short term. Not enough out there to really say though. It's possible likely gains among women, POC, and youth overcome that. I just don't buy a major defection from women given the widening split among men and women politically. In particular with younger voters. "Not another black president!" will sadly be a thing but 99% of those people are already proudly supporting Trump.
  19. Immigration, especially for CA but a major factor for TX too. Though neither state lights the world on fire in K-12 education.
  20. That seems like a major investment in improving the place.
  21. Yeah, I take that Newsmax reporter with a massive grain of salt.
  22. I tend to think the vast majority of those voters are voting blue no matter who. By definition, the anti-Trump vote is driven by...Trump, not the other guy/gal. Some, primarily men, will likely break off due to race and/or gender. I doubt you ultimately see a major white woman defection. This is a very different country for women than it was 8 years ago, as youl obviously well know, and the electorate has changed. The entire 18-25 cohort couldn't even vote in 2016. Most under 30's couldn't or didn't. Millions of older voters have died since then. Less white, on balance. There has not been a decades-long coordinated right wing media onslaught building hatred of Kamala Harris nationally like there was for Hillary Clinton.
  23. This would be such a fucking mess. Biden should absolutely not resign though. It is dumb to even float that.
  24. There's a legitimate argument to be made that Kamala Harris is a net negative in the blue wall states as things currently stand, and her success would rest on getting a decisive victory among those currently undecided/considering not voting/parking protest votes with West or Stein, and that doing so as a quasi-incumbent would be difficult. Her odds are still long, but there's at least upside. It is really hard to imagine undecides breaking for Biden in a meaningful way at this point.
  25. I don't know how anyone could bemoan the Democratic Party's handling of this entire saga and expect a brokered convention to be anything but an enormous mess at the same time.
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