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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Being actively antagonistic to black voters is such a fucking weird strategy for team Trump. I don't know if the Turmp campaign really believed they were going to have some generational breakthrough with black voters - I certainly didn't - but even just continuing the trend of a picking up a couple more percentage points and maybe benefitting from slightly lower turnout would more or less secure GA and make the rust belt trio that much heavier of a lift for Democrats. Now they are out here supercharging black enthusiasm for Harris and self sabotaging in five key swing states. If they piss off the black community to the point of losing GA and NC, the election is called as soon as polls close on the west coast. Just phenomenally dumb.
  2. To Donald Trump? There's like 9 years of evidence to the contrary but okay. Or at least that they only stick in that he does not expand his support.
  3. I didn't say they should feel good lol. Just saying it's a little early to be discussing the idea of Trump winning as borderline inconceivable.
  4. Everything in politics is fleeting. I have no idea what the news cycle will look like a month, two months from now, aside from the fact that it won't look like it does now. We've been watching novel, modern history-making events unfold for like a month straight so to assume the landscape won't significantly change is probably a bad idea. I don't know the last time I said this, but if the election were held tomorrow it'd be a complete coin flip and I might even favor Harris. It's not held tomorrow though; at the moment that uncertainty is potential upside for Trump much as it was for Democrats when trying to get Biden to step aside. People's opinions of Trump are hardened. Partisanship is a bitch. I doubt he wins any new supports but I doubt he loses many relative to 2016 or 2020 either. You can be reasonably sure of him getting his ~46% nationally and + 2%-3% on that in swing states that generally lean slightly right of the nation.
  5. July is typically too early for aggy tears but you're goodamn right I'm here for this.
  6. In this same vein, unfortunately I see the same thing shaping up. I am scared this is going to get really, really ugly.
  7. The right is getting better at comedy and the left is terrified! I bet this landed better on Texags huh?
  8. I'm not giving him a pass at all. It's a phenomenally twisted, apparently at least somewhat sincerely held stance - which seems to be an outlier for him - that also fails to withstand even basic logical scrutiny.
  9. The overarching theme of this stuff, whether it was the "childless cat ladies" soundbite, his attempt at clarifying that, or this new one, is that JD Vance seems to think he is the first person to ever have children or have children that they care about in their life. Major "tech bro discovers parenthood" vibes. I don't know how this guy hasn't died of asphyxiation from the enormous volume of his own farts he seems to have huffed.
  10. Reminder that 25th-ing Biden wouldn't have done anything to his status as the presumptive nominee and would have served essentially no purpose but to sew further chaos. If it looks like bullshit, smells like bullshit...
  11. Fun fact: Walz and Harris are the same age, born six months apart. Harris polling a point, maybe two, better than Biden and taking the conversation to flipping Texas is Surly coaching search thread energy for sure lol
  12. Uh, you might have heard that one "side" just pushed the incumbent POTUS out of the race - unprecedented in modern history - because it was made abundantly clear to the electorate (who have in turn made themselves clear through polling) and eventually the rank and file of the party that he was not up to mounting the kind of campaign needed to win, or to governing for four more years, despite a relatively strong record in his first term. Unless you are just being intentionally disingenuous or are extremely stupid, you surely recognize that such a reckoning is unfathomable in the cult of personality known as the Republican Party. This is such a load of horseshit lol. I get you want to feel smart, edgy, above the fray, etc. but when you are consistently grading one party on a vastly different curve than the other - which is the only way to arrive at the "both sides are the same" conclusion - you've already tacitly admitted they are not in fact the same.
  13. I mean if that has any kind of staying power and Harris can maintain something close to net neutral, the election is over. That's a pretty remarkable swing coming on the scene.
  14. If it goes to the House, the popular vote becomes irrelevant.
  15. This is paywalled for me but I think I miscounted anyway. 26-22-2, not 25-23-2. Nevermind then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#/media/File:118th_US_Congress_House.svg Incoming I believe, but all there is to go on right now is the current.
  16. This is way down the rabbit hole, but currently the state delegations in the House are 25R-23D-2 Ties. What, pray tell, happens if that becomes 25 votes for Trump and 25 for Harris in the House? NC and MN are the ties FWIW.
  17. This. Being a HC at Texas or a similar program is all-consuming. She's, what 10-20 years younger than him(?) and wants to pursue the fashion angle. I can see how things wear thin there. Hopefully it's amicable; sad, obviously, but not toxic. She will get a nice chunk of change obviously but he wasn't (or shouldn't have been) broke going into the marriage four years ago and obviously has quite a bit of guaranteed cash coming to him from UT over the next several years. Also no child support. Somehow I think he'll keep the lights on.
  18. Echoing this last one, Kelly is just too valuable where he is. PA is so important that Shaprio is probably worth it if you think PA is so close he could actually tip it.
  19. I guess a little excited to usher in something at least resembling generational change with Harris. Certainly the first female president would be a milestone we'd all remember. In a vacuum I'm pretty ambivalent toward Harris. She's never really done much to differentiate herself from Generic Democrat and the prosecutorial background doesn't do much for me. That's a pretty soft impression though, if she's able to clearly articulate a vision/platform there's certainly room for her to grow on me. And I'll admit, the absolute meltdown from MAGA with her assuming the Democratic nomination is worth something in its own right. In general, less excited, more motivated as many have implied; and for all the same reasons. The paragraph above is more than good enough in this case.
  20. I guess it depends on how we define "from," as Obama was born in HI and spent most of his childhood there. Still pretty interesting though. I read it as a straight racial thing with the allusion to Obama?
  21. I mean that may have been the case and he was just too dumb to phrase it in a way that couldn't be interperted as despotic - same with the windmill clip, for all I know it was what passes for comedy on the right and trying to mock people that think climate change is real - I just don't care. Hammer it hammer it, hammer it.
  22. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/what-kamala-harris-financial-disclosure-reveals-about-her-investments.html Worth noting, Harris owns a bunch of passive index funds and pension accounts. No Pelosi or Trump like conflicts here. Might get wrecked when her 2.6% adjustable rate mortgage gets adjusted in 2027 tho. Don't know why you wouldn't have just locked in then. I may have to vote Trump over this.
  23. This is great but the "The top ten states for new voters are the 1st-9th, and 11th most populous states" line like it was insightful was kind of funny lol Your uncle is brat.
  24. Would like to see the figures with RFK included. In the polls I have seen, he has been more decidedly eating into Trump's support with Harris on the ballot as she seems to have brought some Biden skeptics home or at least into undecided territory.
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