gmr548

Trump was elected because of the Electoral College. This woman received 2.9MM more votes than Trump did. For context, her popular vote margin would be a top 20 MSA and larger than the population of 13 states even today. Biden's margin would be the #6 MSA and larger than 35 states. Trump only has a prayer in the first place because of the Electoral College.

Look at her face. She knew it too lmao

Solid B+ speech for Biden. He didn't and couldn't win the election last night but he could have lost it, and he certainly avoided that. He could have stuck the landing better at certain points and I am not thrilled with his handling of Israel but he certainly projected the energy and framed the contrast with Trump that he needs to win the election. Katie Britt was really just background noise but from what I saw that shit was weird. Also, Republicans putting their rising female star in the kitchen is just... Of course.

Allred's at a pretty significant cash disadvantage relative to Cruz and a donation now goes further than it will months from now. In general I agree with your line of thinking but Texas is a big, expensive market and it costs a lot of money to run a competitive campaign here. I'm under no illusion he will win but I want him to be competitive. Electoral politics isn't football - there are moral victories. If the GOP - which is cash strapped as fuck, by the way - has to expend resources in TX it cannot use them elsewhere. Also, as I said, because fuck Ted Cruz. I won't be donating to the Biden campaign because I think you're right nationally and he has a huge cash advantage over Trump already.

I'd take that bet. Not money line n Allred or anything, but it won't be that lopsided. Trump was +5-6 and Cornyn was +9-10 in 2020. Cruz is on the Trump support track in Texas. He won't lose, but give me 4-6 points. I wouldn't read much into primary turnout. In a Presidential primary year Democrats were rubber stamping an incumbent while Republicans ostensibly had a nominating contest, not to mention all the state level GOP drama. Cruz is favored, obviously, but it's been shown time and time again that you can't take anything from primaries with differing circumstances like that. Went ahead and donated to Allred. I voted Gutierrez in the primary because I don't care for Allred's conservative stances on some issues, particularly Israel, but fuck Ted Cruz.

Yep. He can't win the election tonight. At best he can get people to think "Hm, maybe not as bad as I thought" before they tune out again for several months; but he can absolutely lose the election tonight with a couple missteps that get inordinate amounts of attention and reinforce that narrative.

Adding to this, the other way around is quite possible. Management candidates do "meet the team" interviews all the time.

Half of those voters were D/Independents that voted for Biden in 2020 and are already going to do so again. This is by far the most important SOTU of my lifetime. I don't expect a strong one will produce a noticeably shift in public pinion in the year of our lord 2024, but projecting vitality and delivering the right message sets the foundation for the campaign, which is entering most people's minds for the first time this week(and won't again for months). The real reason it is critical, though, is that if he stumbles he will never shake the "too old" bit. Yep. She left the door open. Just wants to see what she can extract (SOS, platform concessions, who knows). The moral arc of the universe is long and bends toward justice; but it is not linear. Societies often do go backwards. Yep. Canada has already been mentioned. Mexico is in the process of reverting to single-party rule. Look at Europe - Hungary, obviously; but Italy has a far right government, Erdogan consolidated power in Turkey, and the fascists have had varying degrees of electoral success across other nations. Our system is just structured in a way that they can govern as a minority without building coalitions. They can skip a step here. That's all. I too watched Succession.

What if this is what Texas has always been?

To be fair, one will be heading to a runoff. But still, this is like whe Uvalde went overwhelmingly for Abbott. This place isn't going to get better. I've lost hope.

I don't think it's this simple. A large number of those Haley voters likely voted for Biden in 2020.

Comparing turnout to past primaries is just spinning your wheels. They are noncompetitive rubber stamping of incumbents on both sides. Turnout is always low in those. I really wouldn't make anything of it.

I hate to break it to you but things are not going to look any better next year even if Biden wins. The status quo is essentially the best possible outcome.

We didn't get a recycling pickup for 30 days after Whitmire was inaugurated lol

Yeah I was reading an interesting article the other day - can't remember if it was CNBC, WSJ, NYT, or whoever - basically detailing the pinch American automakers are in. Chinese EVs are evidently getting very cheap (like $10k-$15k/vehicle, I had no idea) and they can flood the market. Trucks + SUVs remain the revenue drivers in North America and will be counted on as such as the EV line gets up to speed, but they face pressure from those really cheap Chinese EV models. If those start eating into sales before American vehicles EVs can compete on price point they stand to lose quite a bit of market share both at home and abroad, and as you outline would be in a very precarious financial position if the EV investment doesn't pay off. Will be interesting to watch.

ChatLobo/Cruiser/YGIFS?

Put "EV charger" into Google Maps. They'll show up. Most interstates and major metros have some level of coverage these days. Electrify America charges pretty quick (I charged a rental EV from 30% to 70% in about 20 mins in a Target parking lot) and charging is cheap. My understanding is EVs work best between 20% and 80% charge but not an expert.

Heh, funny you say this. Evidently their EV sales were up 81% YOY for February. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/04/ford-february-sales-hybrids-evs.html

Depending on where you live tomorrow is potentially the de facto general election. That's probably the biggest one. Lawyers/Houston folks - any particular judicial recommendations to sell me on for judicial seats in the Democratic primary? There are so many in Harris County and it can be hard to find good information.

At its establishment, America was an oligarchy of wealthy, white, Christian men and very few, if any of them intended for it to become anything beyond that. They believe in that vision.

It's burned well over 1MM acres and has crossed state lines. I don't think he has a choice. And of course, as with everything he does, the political optics are the driver and the optics of refusing Federal aid would be pretty bad. Of course the Panhandle would still vote for him but still.

A fraction of infinity is still infinity.

I haven't looked into the methodology or crosstabs on this at all but Michigan is not going to be 3-4 points to the left of PA. Those two states will be within a percentage point of one another. Wisconsin I can see drifting right. It is notably whiter, less educated, and more religious than the other two (and MI slightly more so than PA). But it isn't going to be PA and WI flipping by several points and Michigan holding. If PA goes, MI goes. Keeping the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold has been key to the run of Democratic election wins from 2022-present and is probably one of the most solid, tested data points you can point to in support of Biden's chances. I'd rather not be in the position to have to count on that but it's clearly proven to be real. Yeah it was hard for me to take the NYT poll seriously when I saw the numbers with women. Okay sure. I think the total dismissal of the polls is wishful thinking - there's a real malaise that is being captured there; Biden isn't doing anything about it and is running out of time to do so - but shit like that is impossible to take seriously. Adjust the result among women to something more likely to happen and all of a sudden you're well into statistical tie territory and watching turnout, which I think is ultimately where we'll end up.

Drove my first EV as a rental on a recent trip to CA - a Polestar, which I guess is a car and not a stripper. Cheapest rental option by a mile, through Hertz. It's like 90% the same but I did notice the quicker acceleration. I also drive a little soy boi Honda Fit on the daily so there are bicycles that accelerate quicker, FWIW. Charging was very easy to find. The technology u[grade over my normal spartan car was more fun than anything. Hopefully I'm not on the car market for several more years but I'm pretty sure my next vehicle will be an EV.