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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Absolutely this. The debate fallout within Democratic circles has been a media feeding frenzy; they'd clearly love to keep it going. This has pissed me off a lot honestly. I get the whole Biden saga is big news but SCOTUS just minted the keys to a dictatorship for Donald Trump, who himself was a complete and total mess at the debate, and nary a word. Media is barely attempting to cover that though. The liberal mainstream media, everyone!
  2. Yeah I'm sure the head of Judicial Watch isn't bullshitting at all.
  3. Kelly is also a classic example of being way more fucking valuable in his Senate seat than he is as VP.
  4. Nothing could give me more confidence in Kalama Harris than Pimphand calling her stupid.
  5. To be fair, Democrats' support among the Midwestern white working class has collapsed. I am not worried about an old school Democrat that stayed with the party to vote for Clinton and Biden defecting when Trump is on the ballot again. It's the middle/upper middle class middle aged white voters who just don't like Harris's tone for some strange reason that I'd worry about. And seniors.
  6. I only care if Biden drops out in that I want to see Democrats' chances of winning the White House, Senate, and House maximized, because the Republican Party has openly broadcast its desire to establish a fascist dictatorship. I have not seen a ton of evidence that Biden dropping would advance that cause; although polling coming out this week, as the media has negligently and relentlessly focused on Biden's debate performance above any and all other stories, has now maybe started to suggest that. Lots of polling has indicated that a majority of voters, including independents and even Democrats, want Biden to not run. That's great, but we all know when you start identifying alternatives as opposed to the idea of a generic replacement, support plummets. This is evidenced by other options polling essentially the same. So in that sense I am somewhat agnostic. If it becomes clear to me that Biden stepping aside meaningfully increases win probability then I'd be all for it, I'm just unconvinced that it does, even now. Kamala Harris is in all likelihood the nominee if that happens. Base your takes about whether you think Biden should step down accordingly. She is logistically by far the smoothest option and was elected by the people of the United States of America to be the next (wo)man up if, God forbid, the need ever arose. There is no reasonable argument from within the Democratic Party other than "eh, I just don't like her;" which sets off a shit show of a contested convention that I have no doubt Democrats would find a way to bungle. If Biden does step aside, Harris's candidacy is a political damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Obviously there are undecideds/independents willing to give Democrats a second look with a younger candidate. However, we saw a black president break a good chunk of white America's brains and we see similarly inspired posts in this very thread discussing her candidacy. I have a hard time thinking a black woman retains the support in the suburbs and among white seniors that Joe Biden has, nor is she likely to be significantly additive when it comes to black and latino men. Conversely, black women are an integral part of the Democratic base and passing over a black woman who is very literally heir to the throne is not going to go over well. I don't know how much she nets over Biden, if anything. Gavin Newsom exudes rich, California limousine liberal. While I think he is very good in interviews, and is clearly a sharp guy, and has a decent policy record, that will be the message and it will stick with receipts like the French laundry debacle. He will be a non starter in middle America. Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro at least bring the potential to shore up key states, but see the point above about passing over Harris and the reaction from black women in the base. Whitmer also has to deal with the burden of being a woman. Shapiro probably has the shortest list of negatives, but as just a two year Governor of PA, we don't know what we don't know in terms of vetting. And I frankly struggle to see the Democratic Party passing on a sitting VP for a two-year Governor. Anyone else is small time and not worth considering.
  7. I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.
  8. The "most of the electorate thinks Biden is old as hell - too old to be POTUS - and saw exactly what they expected from both candidates" is really the one line of cope I tend to buy. And the media tailspin surrounding it screams Beltway bubble bursting. NYT is a great example. I don't necessarily think today's NYT story on Biden is bad reporting, but running with that as the top story and the complete saturation of Biden takes in its editorial section over the fucking bender SCOTUS has been on over the past two business days is a choice that signifies their worldview just got rocked.
  9. If by "this race" you mean her career as a Nashville influencer then sure
  10. The only silver lining is there has been zero expression of anything like "hey Trump was not so bad!" Focus groups and anecdotal evidence point toward people just thinking we are turbofucked.
  11. Accepting this assumption for aske of argument, am I supposed to think the DNC is not prone to handwringing?
  12. They got the nomination because supermajorities of participating voters selected them in the primaries. There was never serious opposition to either candidate. Sentiments like these are reflections of the electorate, ultimately, not the candidates.
  13. Anyway, I didn't watch last night because I don't hate myself. It sounds like the only thing that could have happened to move the needle - Biden looking old, tired, etc. - happened. This will mostly fade away and people will revert to their baseline stances as typically happens with these debates; but the 1-2 point bump Biden got from Trump's conviction is likely gone. And in an election this close that could be decisive. The replace Biden conversation should have been had a year ago if anyone was serious about it. Now it's just handwringing. Regardless of how anyone feels, we're past the point of no return.
  14. Jesus Christ, put a trigger warning on this shit.
  15. Every accusation is a confession with these people.
  16. Yeah this is the only thing that could move the needle in this debate. Trump's mic being muted is a godsend for Trump. Without a bad soundbite/video clip, Biden will win the debate handily and it will not matter one bit.
  17. If Joe Biden does win the election, the GOP is going to have an enormous House victory in the midterms. Democrats aren't passing shit in 27-28.
  18. Debates do not and will not matter. Public opinion polling has consistently shown Trump as a decisive loser in every presidential debate he's participated in. They fade in the news cycle like everything else and everything can see what poo flinging shit shows they've become. If they debate, Biden will crush Trump, and it won't matter.
  19. Republican incompetence in its implementation gives me more solace than the Democrats' willingness/ability to frame and attack it for what it is, or the American public's or appetite to recognize and reject it. Sad place to be. 46% of the electorate will vote for this, whether out of malice or ignorance; just as 46% of the electorate voted for the less well articulated version of it in 2016 and 2020. Whether that's enough, who knows?
  20. 11am road game at Arkansas is great. Piglets do not have all day to tailgate and the environment will not be as rowdy (at least at first); and for most of us watching on TV, game is first thing.
  21. What we know as Texas was very literally founded by carpetbagging white bois that weren't too fond of brown folks. Seems to fit the mold.
  22. Until you lose good talent over draconian policy
  23. Tuition hikes at public colleges are directly correlated with state funding cuts. In Texas, that ratio is actually < 100%; i.e. universities have increased tuition by less than funding losses. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fancy-dorms-arent-the-main-reason-tuition-is-skyrocketing/
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