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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. I think you're making a mistake in looking at it on the basis of merit as opposed to looking at ways the GOP can engage in ratfuckery.
  2. Don't y'all get it? It's funny because she's a woman (innuendo) and black (banana) - the right is getting better at comedy!1!1!1 These people, I swear to god.
  3. Democrat have been continuously fucking up federal races in NC since Obama won in '08. My bar for thinking they would be decisive favorites there is... Quite high at this point.
  4. I think if you had an indication that Cooper makes you a prohibitive favorite in NC you do it, because that expands the map. There was no realistic scenario where NC was in play, and certainly not where it was a decisive factor. You can win PA without Shaprio, you cannot win NC without Cooper. Delivering NC also decreases the relative importance of PA in that paths to victory would then exist without the latter (though unlikely, as it is not likely to go MAGA if MI and WI do not). I am also extremely skeptical Cooper would deliver NC. VP nominees do not typically matter that much.
  5. Hmm, where have I heard this before? Ah, yes: https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3476977 Y'all need better talking points lulz 80 million people voted for Biden to be POTUS from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 and that's what we will get. Was every president prior to the 70's not democratically elected because the parties didn't give a fuck about primaries? Has every politician that's ever resigned or refused a nomination subverted the will of the voters? Next time you see lead paint chips recommended on Texags, remember you don't have to eat them just because all of your friends are.
  6. I'd say it's more like benching your veteran QB that's thrown a couple bad picks and has you down 10 in the early 4th to an inferior opponent, and trotting our your intriguing but unproven RS FR backup. Elon out here rage posting like a Surly game thread
  7. He also evidently doesn't need to, and there's no reason to give the GOP the red meat for their base - "oBuMmEr Is BeHiNd It AlL!1!1!"
  8. Well Obama can't run so I wasn't really referring to him lol. I'd love to be able to put him on the ballot. He'd hang 350 EVs on Trump.
  9. Go back to Texags. And maybe elementary school social studies while you're at it. Primaries aren't real elections and a majority of self identified Democrats have consistently expressed a preference for an alternative to Joe Biden. No one serious bothered to jump in the primary.
  10. Whitmer will not throw her hat in the ring. Honestly with this still being an underdog's position and the groundswell of support, I'd expect other headline names like Newsome or Shapiro to also do the same. Align around Harris as the best chance to beat Trump this cycle, take your shot in 2028 if she loses.
  11. I'm not saying I would lol Court cases would go through DC circuit anyway as I understand which would likely tell a challenger to pound sand. I suppose it depends on how brazen SCOTUS is feeling.
  12. The Democratic primary electorate is not the general election electorate. The party had to coalesce around Joe Biden to stop Bernie Sanders from winning a primary lol
  13. The GOP will surely challenge in court, and the GOP appointed chair of the ostensibly independent FEC is already posturing on Twitter: That said, the consensus is that Harris should be able to assume, and is the only one who could, which is a major advantage for her.
  14. These. Make no mistake it's still a long shot. In the short term it likely damages Democrats standing in the EC because she won't poll as well with seniors and whites in the midwest as Biden. It's on Democrats to now win decisively among undecides and get young voters back in the fold. It's an uphill battle but at least there's a battle to fight. Biden was mortally wounded. She's absolutely going to pay a proverbial tax as a black woman. She also opens doors that Biden clearly wasn't going to. You have to take the upside in this scenario. No. Pete is impressive but need someone with executive governing experience and ties to a relatively important state. One of the governors is the play. His name rec is way overinflated on this site for obvious reasons. Governing will be fine if Harris wins. I imagine a lot of the rank and file Biden staff will remain in place. If there's a pick I trust her specifically to make it's a Merrick Garland replacement. And it's less worrying than a Turmp admin. Yep. Go find your equivalent to Obama's... Joe Biden.
  15. Phew. Now that you've posted this take I feel better about Democratic prospects than I have this entire election cycle.
  16. PredictIt is predominantly white men, which is the one thoroughly conservative demographic subgroup. Right wing conspriacies always have outsized odds on there. See Michelle Obama consistently getting traction.
  17. Nashville is MAGA Los Angeles. Y'all have fun at that Vanderbilt game.
  18. lol there is no way Trump leads in metro Detroit (the sentence could end here), where Biden won by 400k votes with a 60% overall vote share, and only leads the state by marginally more. That implies Biden is at a near standstill in the other half of the state, where he was comparatively beaten soundly.
  19. Honestly this shit might make me vote for Trump on the burn it all down train
  20. I genuinely do not think Biden is running if Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis or whoever is the GOP nominee. I think it's personal to him with Trump on the ballot.
  21. No it isn't. Removing a nominee is not deposing a leader; they are a political party and can run who they want. The voters will pick the President. Also, Biden can simply run the clock out on them if he holds on, unless there is such overwhelming support for removing him that they literally change their own rules to do so an install a new nominee by applicable deadlines.
  22. It is interesting that Bernstein is basically Joe Biden's age; Biden is less than 18 months older. You can't get a concussion when your brain is already mush
  23. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/19/pelosi-support-open-nomination-biden-drop-out-00169893 Pelosi, always in lock step with the big money, and the CA caucus evidently want an open primary. Supposedly many in this group support Harris anyway but want to avoid the image of a coronation where the party bosses just picked the candidate. I respect Nancy Pelosi as a political mind but the idea that people would not already have that impression after donors and elected officials essentially staged a post-primary revolt is, uh, something. Of course, maybe she is right to just insult the intelligence of the American voter. Works for Republicans. Democrats are really going to pull this shit, end up with Andy Beshear, and hemorrhage black voters for real, aren't they?
  24. I think I'd proceed with Harris if I was crowned king for a day at this point, but the whole contested convention, mini primary thing has always been dumb and just sticking with Biden has always been a better option than that. A quick transition to Harris is the only viable alternative that does not involve the Democratic Party smearing considerably more shit all over itself than it already has and dooming its electoral prospects in the prospects.
  25. No it's not. This entire saga is about whether Biden should run for another term.
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