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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. gmr548
    D +20 in 2020 in favor of long term incumbent. Often unopposed before that. Ds have been crushing specials given turnout advantage among more educated voters, but losing an incumbent (I don't know the circumstances). Unless it's scandal or something dragging the Democrat down, I'd want to see them get to that 60-40 margin again, ideally better. Losing outright seems like it would be a disaster and barely on the table, and that tweet is just GOP doing election hype things.
  2. gmr548
    I mean yeah, that's what it was in 2020. It's pretty compelling. Trump was a disaster as President and will be worse a second time around. If Republicans hadn't been thoroughly cucked they would have this election in the bag, but that's their problem. The funny thing is that if one takes five minutes to look over the record and apply a bit of critical thinking Biden actually has an objectively good record - certainly better than what I expected - but that's typically too much to ask of the American public.
  3. gmr548
    TIL 45% of Democratic leaning adults are fucking morons.
  4. gmr548
    Perhaps the most irritating thing is the same kind of sourced accounts that painted a picture of terrifying incompetence in the Trump White House have quoted Republicans admitting Biden is plenty sharp in private settings; debt ceiling negotiations, for example. Biden has always been a public gaffe machine, now he's a little bit more of one because he's 109 years old. That's really all it is as far as I can tell.
  5. gmr548
    I know that and agree. But there's a difference between not tuning in and not knowing at this juncture that it is going to be Donald Trump. If you have any kind of polling or other data to prove me wrong I'd love to see it, because it would materially change my perspective.
  6. gmr548
    This was true two or three months ago but I simply don't buy it now, primaries and Trump legal proceedings have been headline news and covered with the context that Trump is the Republican nominee.
  7. gmr548
    lol turn off the fox news man, literally everything you listed ranges from exaggerated portrayals of a segment of gen z twitter (itself a very small segment of society) to outright fabrication
  8. gmr548
    Yeah, these. Biden is too old to be POTUS in a sane timeline and it does show. Now, it's stupid and extremely frustrating that Donald Trump - someone who is significantly lessmentally and physically fit to be POTUS, and by the way basically the same age - more or less gets a pass for far worse. But this stuff is going to stick.
  9. gmr548
    Being cucked by a tinpot dictator is a foundational piece of the Republican identity. Putin is just trying to make him feel at home in a far away land.
  10. gmr548
    I mean, you and the rest of the GOP base could have elevated a viable alternative that wasn't clearly inferior to a "sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory"... but you chose instead enroll as a card-carrying member of Cult 45, so here we are.
  11. gmr548
    And they are totally fine with burning down not just their cart but the entire block as long as no sandwiches get sold. That's the whole point.
  12. gmr548
  13. gmr548
    My brother in Christ, the GOP is rigging the propane tank at the sandwich cart to explode, and they are doing it in broad daylight.
  14. gmr548
    I'm pretty sure someone so cucked by Trump that they go dress up as Hitler and storm the Capitol doesn't have the first clue about anything sexual.
  15. gmr548
    Except it kind of was (on accident) because the GOP insider talking points coming out of 2012 were all about needing to be more inclusive, to appeal more to women, minorities, and young voters, things like that. Instead Trump did very much the opposite of that and won, but he completely hijacked the party. It wasn't where leadership was trying to go.
  16. gmr548
    What's the GOP's long game in PA? The state party has ben gutted, SEPA is the only growing part of the state, etc. I'm actually of the opinion that Trump represents the GOP high water mark in PA. MI and WI, yeah, I think they could ultimately trend right, particularly WI. Democrats have a lot of momentum in MI at least.
  17. gmr548
    Democrats could create a 14 EV swing and pick up 4 senate seats if they just found 250k progressive, outdoor-inclined youth from the west coast and northeast and just moved them to MT and WY. Give them sham jobs with the DNC or something.
  18. gmr548
    The ongoing realignment of American electoral politics is extremely fascinating, until you remember what's at stake lol. I agree with you on NC. It's been Lucy with the football for Dems in federal races many times for various reasons since Obama broke through, but Roy Cooper has won 2x, Democrats have won other competitive state level races, and you're right on the Demographics. It's not Florida level futile. I can definitely see it going the VA path where there is legacy Republican influence in the state government that is simply hard to root out, but becoming a steadily Democratic state federally.
  19. gmr548
    NC yes, OH no, but agree with the general sentiment. If the Democrats win FL they have already won NC, GA, AZ, and NV (which is game over already - they could lose WI-MI-PA and would still win). FL isn't going to tip the election for Democrats, it's the score to go up 17 with 2 minutes left.
  20. gmr548
    Mike Johnson was set to endorse but backed out because of pressure from Republican Senate campaign arm, McConnell, etc. Maybe Rosendale will play that up and the primary gets nasty.
  21. gmr548
    I think it's 100% the other way around. Preservation of abortion rights takes the issue off the table and gives otherwise socially moderate Ohio voters that maybe would have considered crossing over carte blanche to vote their worst impulses (and they are pretty bad in that part of the country) on immigration without fear of an abortion ban.
  22. gmr548
    Democrats have consistently kept the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold when up against MAGA candidates under Biden. That's pretty atypical historically speaking but obviously so is the entire situation right now. Maintaining that against the final MAGA boss is going to be the key, and that includes the young voters being discussed because a lot of them fall in that bucket.
  23. gmr548
    Oh cool we're in the Lobo/Cruiser/YGIFS Republican primary rant stage of the election cycle once again. Look, if you took every Democrat that voted in the 2022 Primary and had them vote for the second place Republican, Abbott goes to a runoff and wins, and Dan Patrick wins by over 250k votes. It's a stupid pipe dream. That's before considering that for those of us who don't live in aggystan exurbs or rural areas, the Democratic primary is functionally the general election at the local level. I'm not passing on that to tell people how edgy I am for voting in the GOP primary.
  24. gmr548
    I actually like Newsom more than I expected to when I've heard him in interviews and what not, but I do think the liberal elite Californian thing is going to be hard to shake. He'll just get painted as out of touch coming up in private school, dating a celeb, and because of the French Laundry thing during COVID. And to be fair I can see how that strikes a nerve. Whitmer, Warnock, and Shapiro stand out to me as the fastest rising stars with the brightest futures because of the states they can mobilize.
  25. gmr548
    It's the same shit with Cornyn. People think he's half decent because the point of reference is Cruz, but he is a piece of shit too.

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