gmr548

I mean I can kind of buy that most Republican men struggle with pleasing a woman.

All two of 'em in the 21st century, a peer of UH.

Well no, I do not hate myself and Twitter is even less representative of reality than surly.

I'm sure Trump's campaign will be setting a purely coincidental $84MM fundraising target any day now.

Eh. Most people looking at that pic for 1-2 seconds probably don't even catch the hat thing. He's just looking for a rise.

Well the trolls like @Hal Finney think this is a slam dunk but in reality plenty of construction/trade workers wear hard hats backward at times, and the Biden team probably just wants to show the union stickers.

Yep. In this hypothetical, Texas is absolutely not worth fighting over. I want to move every summer anyway. I'd be nope-ing the fuck outta here.

As a Native, lifelong Texan, let the place go ahead and secede for all I care. I'll take my US passport to my country of origin - which will never again elect a Republican President without Texas - and go on with my life while Texas becomes a third world backwater in short order.

I love it. I don't say this lightly, he is on the Mt. Rushmore of dumbest surly posters. That takes effort and dedication, and I applaud him.

It's roughly 95% so Texas has declined right to the threshold. Stupid selfish assholes doing stupid selfish asshole things, news at 11. Wife is in public health and previously worked in a non-profit focused on immunizations. She said, paraphrasing, Austin is pretty bad because opposition to vaccines is one of those rabbit holes where the crunchy granola hippie variety nutjobs and christofascist evangelical nutjobs end up together at the bottom. Austin being Austin it has plenty of the former, and being Texas/the South, the latter exist too.

The only surprise there is that there might have been one who had a moment of humanity.

My favorite part of this chart is the spikes and dives before inauguration, as if the election of Trump or Biden changed the economy on E Day +1. Negative partisanship is wild.

Yeah, if Abbott wants to take a shot at federal agents he can go ahead and do that. I'm sure that'd go real well. In the meantime, CPB has a job to do and Abbott's goons can stand their and watch with their dicks in their hands.

It's funny, I had a conversation with my brother last year, who I would say is probably slightly to my left, and I was saying I'd give Biden like a B-. Adequate overall but failed to make enough progress on the two biggest issues in my mind: democratic integrity and climate (with the caveat that Biden's climate impact will really have to be evaluated a decade from now when the impact of the IRA can really be assessed). And my brother just asked me, what else was he supposed to do with the situation in Congress? And it was a fair point. Now we can say that Democrats botched the elections in 2020 to a degree and should have had better margins with which to work, but the fundamental reality is that a very narrow Senate majority was always going to limit Biden to legislation that could be passed via reconciliation and bipartisan deals. Really all I could say was lean on the Senate to kill the fillibuster to get more significant legislation passed, which was probably a pipe dream. Before Israel I'd pretty much come around that Biden was the best POTUS in my lifetime (born early 90s) by a decent margin. I don't like our approach there; though I acknowledge it's basically a poison pill I can't abide allowing Israel to do what they've done. However, I don't understand the progressives entertaining not voting for Biden over this. Do you wan to be in the tent and influencing policy decisions or do you want to watch Trump encouraging his buddy Bibi to level Gaza?

It's also just stupid as hell from a purely self-centered standpoint. A double whammy.

This theory has some backing from the midterms in that a driver of the Democrats' relative success was keeping "Somewhat Disapprove" in the fold. That's not historically normal but neither was the MAGA, election denying alternative. Most incumbents also see their approval ratings rise in the run up to the end of their term as the alternative becomes a specific individual instead of a hypothetical. I expect the same to happen in 24, especially because we know how America feels about the other person, but this timeline is already strange.

Inflation/cost of living, border, 112 years old, GOP propaganda machine. All of the above; much of it may not necessarily be rational but we're talking about a polity of humans here. Don't expect rational.

I mean I agree it's good for POTUS to maybe sneak in a working vacation for mental health's sake but otherwise there's zero reason for that

Interesting. I didn't know that. 2023 was the best year Dems have had in FL in a while. Something to keep an eye on.

Wisconsin is one of the two or three truly 50/50 states in the nation and it's not a super favorable state for Democrats, demographically. It's like 80% white and less than a third of adults have degrees. Democrats have scraped by in a couple of elections and it's not unwinnable but I don't see how it's any more than a tossup. Michigan is similar on the education front but more diverse and a little less religious. PA slightly more diverse and less religious than MI, and is better educated; and the growth of that state is in the Philadelphia metro and eastern PA where people - particularly immigrants and racial minorities - are moving in from NY. I think you can make a credible argument that those are blue tilts, but they're close enough that they'll go as independents go and it is too early to know how that is going to break.

I definitely think the apparent presumption in some circles that it will be Trump is very premature. I get Biden's approval is relatively low but you're looking for people who voted against him in the last election to flip back to Trump after he'll no doubt spend his time doing and saying insane shit on the campaign trail; and you're looking for it in large enough volume to not just erase margins of victory in 2020 but make up for cycling in of younger voters and dying off of older voters relative to 2020 that will be a net benefit to Biden. Kari Lake was less than 20k votes from being governor all the same. It will be close.

New low? Would this even crack the top ten?

This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL. The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back. 160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

What if your first question is about the meat clock? Asking for a friend.

Nevada's got a Republican Governor right now so they've won something. Tend to agree that it's a D tilt; it'll be a tough out, but beating incumbents is hard. Cruz will win Texas by 4-6 points. He can only lose if he alienates Cult 45. He's already endorsed Trump so I am assuming he'll stay in line the next 10 months and it'll be a non-event. Florida, I mean, there are some bright spots for Dems in the past 12 months if you squint but yeah I can't see it with Trump on the ballot. Senate is a heavy R overall. I mostly agree with @Js1's assessment of individual races, though I'd move WV to Safe R. But those lean/likely D's include a few that are just slight leans, and FL-T are really likely R. Dems have to make sure they take no losses in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and PA; win tossup-at-best defensive races in MT and OH, and win the presidency. Long odds on a parlay like that. Lose even once in any of those and it's a GOP senate. Biden and Schumer need to get busy with judicial vacancies.