Everything posted by gmr548
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I only care if Biden drops out in that I want to see Democrats' chances of winning the White House, Senate, and House maximized, because the Republican Party has openly broadcast its desire to establish a fascist dictatorship. I have not seen a ton of evidence that Biden dropping would advance that cause; although polling coming out this week, as the media has negligently and relentlessly focused on Biden's debate performance above any and all other stories, has now maybe started to suggest that. Lots of polling has indicated that a majority of voters, including independents and even Democrats, want Biden to not run. That's great, but we all know when you start identifying alternatives as opposed to the idea of a generic replacement, support plummets. This is evidenced by other options polling essentially the same. So in that sense I am somewhat agnostic. If it becomes clear to me that Biden stepping aside meaningfully increases win probability then I'd be all for it, I'm just unconvinced that it does, even now. Kamala Harris is in all likelihood the nominee if that happens. Base your takes about whether you think Biden should step down accordingly. She is logistically by far the smoothest option and was elected by the people of the United States of America to be the next (wo)man up if, God forbid, the need ever arose. There is no reasonable argument from within the Democratic Party other than "eh, I just don't like her;" which sets off a shit show of a contested convention that I have no doubt Democrats would find a way to bungle. If Biden does step aside, Harris's candidacy is a political damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Obviously there are undecideds/independents willing to give Democrats a second look with a younger candidate. However, we saw a black president break a good chunk of white America's brains and we see similarly inspired posts in this very thread discussing her candidacy. I have a hard time thinking a black woman retains the support in the suburbs and among white seniors that Joe Biden has, nor is she likely to be significantly additive when it comes to black and latino men. Conversely, black women are an integral part of the Democratic base and passing over a black woman who is very literally heir to the throne is not going to go over well. I don't know how much she nets over Biden, if anything. Gavin Newsom exudes rich, California limousine liberal. While I think he is very good in interviews, and is clearly a sharp guy, and has a decent policy record, that will be the message and it will stick with receipts like the French laundry debacle. He will be a non starter in middle America. Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro at least bring the potential to shore up key states, but see the point above about passing over Harris and the reaction from black women in the base. Whitmer also has to deal with the burden of being a woman. Shapiro probably has the shortest list of negatives, but as just a two year Governor of PA, we don't know what we don't know in terms of vetting. And I frankly struggle to see the Democratic Party passing on a sitting VP for a two-year Governor. Anyone else is small time and not worth considering.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
The "most of the electorate thinks Biden is old as hell - too old to be POTUS - and saw exactly what they expected from both candidates" is really the one line of cope I tend to buy. And the media tailspin surrounding it screams Beltway bubble bursting. NYT is a great example. I don't necessarily think today's NYT story on Biden is bad reporting, but running with that as the top story and the complete saturation of Biden takes in its editorial section over the fucking bender SCOTUS has been on over the past two business days is a choice that signifies their worldview just got rocked.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
If by "this race" you mean her career as a Nashville influencer then sure
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The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread
The only silver lining is there has been zero expression of anything like "hey Trump was not so bad!" Focus groups and anecdotal evidence point toward people just thinking we are turbofucked.
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The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread
Failed statistics, eh?
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The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread
Accepting this assumption for aske of argument, am I supposed to think the DNC is not prone to handwringing?
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
They got the nomination because supermajorities of participating voters selected them in the primaries. There was never serious opposition to either candidate. Sentiments like these are reflections of the electorate, ultimately, not the candidates.
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The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread
Anyway, I didn't watch last night because I don't hate myself. It sounds like the only thing that could have happened to move the needle - Biden looking old, tired, etc. - happened. This will mostly fade away and people will revert to their baseline stances as typically happens with these debates; but the 1-2 point bump Biden got from Trump's conviction is likely gone. And in an election this close that could be decisive. The replace Biden conversation should have been had a year ago if anyone was serious about it. Now it's just handwringing. Regardless of how anyone feels, we're past the point of no return.
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Southwest or every other airline in the history of the world?
Jesus Christ, put a trigger warning on this shit.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
- Voter Suppression
Every accusation is a confession with these people.- The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread
Yeah this is the only thing that could move the needle in this debate. Trump's mic being muted is a godsend for Trump. Without a bad soundbite/video clip, Biden will win the debate handily and it will not matter one bit.- Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread
If Joe Biden does win the election, the GOP is going to have an enormous House victory in the midterms. Democrats aren't passing shit in 27-28.- 2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Debates do not and will not matter. Public opinion polling has consistently shown Trump as a decisive loser in every presidential debate he's participated in. They fade in the news cycle like everything else and everything can see what poo flinging shit shows they've become. If they debate, Biden will crush Trump, and it won't matter.- Project 2025: The plan for radical republicans to take America back to the 1700s
Republican incompetence in its implementation gives me more solace than the Democrats' willingness/ability to frame and attack it for what it is, or the American public's or appetite to recognize and reject it. Sad place to be. 46% of the electorate will vote for this, whether out of malice or ignorance; just as 46% of the electorate voted for the less well articulated version of it in 2016 and 2020. Whether that's enough, who knows?- 2024 Texas Football Schedule
11am road game at Arkansas is great. Piglets do not have all day to tailgate and the environment will not be as rowdy (at least at first); and for most of us watching on TV, game is first thing.- Texas -- a failed state
What we know as Texas was very literally founded by carpetbagging white bois that weren't too fond of brown folks. Seems to fit the mold.- Jay Hartzell is not out standard
Until you lose good talent over draconian policy- Jay Hartzell is not out standard
Tuition hikes at public colleges are directly correlated with state funding cuts. In Texas, that ratio is actually < 100%; i.e. universities have increased tuition by less than funding losses. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fancy-dorms-arent-the-main-reason-tuition-is-skyrocketing/- Jay Hartzell is not out standard
It's pretty well documented that this is a myth.- 2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
We're all losing our minds as of the first incompletion against Colorado State and you know that.- 2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
If this is what they are reaching for to fire up the outrage machine things may look pretty bleak to FOX.- Texas tops list of worst places to live and work in America
We recently relocated out of Texas and I really wish we did this. We got rid of a decent amount of our belongings but still brought some furniture, kitchen gear, clothes, etc. Pain in my assholes. /Borat. Considering the time/effort that goes into packing/loading then doing the reverse, cost of transport, and the fact that we beat PODS up here by like a week, it would have been more cost effective to lose nearly everything.- 2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
That still makes sense though, because the trend of educated voters making up a higher proportion of the electorate in specials isn't because all of the same people that show up for a general election show up- there are fewer voters with college degrees too - it's because everyone else's participation falls off an even bigger cliff. That's how you get a very small piece of the general electorate in a district like this exercising hugely disproportionate influence in a special. Will be interesting to see the voter demographics if anyone is reliably tracking them. - Voter Suppression
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