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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. If you're coming from Texas in June I think you'll find anything short of like 90 days in WA to be too short. Depends on a lot of things - what you're interested in, what's the standard for lodging, budget, etc. You could probably make a week work between those two cities or stretch it to a full two weeks The one thing I'd really highly recommend is 2-3 weeknights in Port Angeles to explore Olympic National Park, if you guys are remotely into that sort of thing. The town itself is sleepy but the Olympic Peninsula is just epic.
  2. Chase transfers to Hyatt, and their points can often go pretty far. I don't have a specific resort rec for a big family vacation, but I'd say look into Hyatt's resort portfolio (they have been recently acquired several additional resort brands). You can probably find an all inclusive that gets you a pretty good return on points.
  3. The scientific term is the texags effect
  4. Yep. I remember the absolute meltdown when Abbott let his sanity slip out from undercover and added a third week of early voting in 2020. Next action on that will be in the other direction, and only applicable to counties with a population of n-1, where n = the population of Dallas County.
  5. Maybe this was fear of being subjected to aggy football?
  6. I can tell you've never been to Texas. You should come down to visit. Lovely weather this time of year.
  7. Meant to multiquote this but somehow fucked it up. I'd actually be curious to be a fly on the wall in Chinese discussions on American elections. On the one hand, Trump clearly hurts them in the short term with his trade vendetta. It's economically destabilizing and with that comes a lot of risk for them. But Trump is also a much larger risk to American stability, which could elevate China. Long term, if Trump guts the US federal government and ushers in an economic meltdown, there's no doubt an opportunity for China.
  8. Trump was elected because of the Electoral College. This woman received 2.9MM more votes than Trump did. For context, her popular vote margin would be a top 20 MSA and larger than the population of 13 states even today. Biden's margin would be the #6 MSA and larger than 35 states. Trump only has a prayer in the first place because of the Electoral College.
  9. Look at her face. She knew it too lmao
  10. Solid B+ speech for Biden. He didn't and couldn't win the election last night but he could have lost it, and he certainly avoided that. He could have stuck the landing better at certain points and I am not thrilled with his handling of Israel but he certainly projected the energy and framed the contrast with Trump that he needs to win the election. Katie Britt was really just background noise but from what I saw that shit was weird. Also, Republicans putting their rising female star in the kitchen is just... Of course.
  11. gmr548 replied to a post in a topic in Cloak Room
    Allred's at a pretty significant cash disadvantage relative to Cruz and a donation now goes further than it will months from now. In general I agree with your line of thinking but Texas is a big, expensive market and it costs a lot of money to run a competitive campaign here. I'm under no illusion he will win but I want him to be competitive. Electoral politics isn't football - there are moral victories. If the GOP - which is cash strapped as fuck, by the way - has to expend resources in TX it cannot use them elsewhere. Also, as I said, because fuck Ted Cruz. I won't be donating to the Biden campaign because I think you're right nationally and he has a huge cash advantage over Trump already.
  12. gmr548 replied to a post in a topic in Cloak Room
    I'd take that bet. Not money line n Allred or anything, but it won't be that lopsided. Trump was +5-6 and Cornyn was +9-10 in 2020. Cruz is on the Trump support track in Texas. He won't lose, but give me 4-6 points. I wouldn't read much into primary turnout. In a Presidential primary year Democrats were rubber stamping an incumbent while Republicans ostensibly had a nominating contest, not to mention all the state level GOP drama. Cruz is favored, obviously, but it's been shown time and time again that you can't take anything from primaries with differing circumstances like that. Went ahead and donated to Allred. I voted Gutierrez in the primary because I don't care for Allred's conservative stances on some issues, particularly Israel, but fuck Ted Cruz.
  13. Yep. He can't win the election tonight. At best he can get people to think "Hm, maybe not as bad as I thought" before they tune out again for several months; but he can absolutely lose the election tonight with a couple missteps that get inordinate amounts of attention and reinforce that narrative.
  14. Adding to this, the other way around is quite possible. Management candidates do "meet the team" interviews all the time.
  15. Half of those voters were D/Independents that voted for Biden in 2020 and are already going to do so again. This is by far the most important SOTU of my lifetime. I don't expect a strong one will produce a noticeably shift in public pinion in the year of our lord 2024, but projecting vitality and delivering the right message sets the foundation for the campaign, which is entering most people's minds for the first time this week(and won't again for months). The real reason it is critical, though, is that if he stumbles he will never shake the "too old" bit. Yep. She left the door open. Just wants to see what she can extract (SOS, platform concessions, who knows). The moral arc of the universe is long and bends toward justice; but it is not linear. Societies often do go backwards. Yep. Canada has already been mentioned. Mexico is in the process of reverting to single-party rule. Look at Europe - Hungary, obviously; but Italy has a far right government, Erdogan consolidated power in Turkey, and the fascists have had varying degrees of electoral success across other nations. Our system is just structured in a way that they can govern as a minority without building coalitions. They can skip a step here. That's all. I too watched Succession.
  16. gmr548 replied to a post in a topic in Cloak Room
    What if this is what Texas has always been?
  17. gmr548 replied to a post in a topic in Cloak Room
    To be fair, one will be heading to a runoff. But still, this is like whe Uvalde went overwhelmingly for Abbott. This place isn't going to get better. I've lost hope.
  18. I don't think it's this simple. A large number of those Haley voters likely voted for Biden in 2020.
  19. Comparing turnout to past primaries is just spinning your wheels. They are noncompetitive rubber stamping of incumbents on both sides. Turnout is always low in those. I really wouldn't make anything of it.
  20. I hate to break it to you but things are not going to look any better next year even if Biden wins. The status quo is essentially the best possible outcome.
  21. We didn't get a recycling pickup for 30 days after Whitmire was inaugurated lol
  22. Yeah I was reading an interesting article the other day - can't remember if it was CNBC, WSJ, NYT, or whoever - basically detailing the pinch American automakers are in. Chinese EVs are evidently getting very cheap (like $10k-$15k/vehicle, I had no idea) and they can flood the market. Trucks + SUVs remain the revenue drivers in North America and will be counted on as such as the EV line gets up to speed, but they face pressure from those really cheap Chinese EV models. If those start eating into sales before American vehicles EVs can compete on price point they stand to lose quite a bit of market share both at home and abroad, and as you outline would be in a very precarious financial position if the EV investment doesn't pay off. Will be interesting to watch.
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