gmr548

I mean it's very fair to say that the Tech team we just saw was very different from the one Oregon did. And Oregon played them on the road in Week 2, probably spent most of the week trying to find Lubbock on a map. Texas played them in the last week of the year, with the chance to clinch a CCG berth and stay in the CFP discussion, and having very obviously circled the game after a year of chirping from the Tech side. If Oregon was that motivated and playing at home against the Tech MASH unit they probably could win by 50. That doesn't mean Texas wasn't very impressive. I wouldn't take much more from the exercise than that. Okay this was funny lol

I think it just ceases to matter if FSU loses. There is no conceivable scenario where Texas wins, FSU loses, and Texas misses out.

Yep. The body of work is there. Frankly Bama would probably be favored against Texas again just as Texas would be favored in an OU rematch. If they wanted to put Bama over Texas they have the ammo. If Bama wins and Texas doesn't look anemic in winning, they are both going to the playoffs and Oregon will be holding the bag if FSU wins.

Sagarin has #4 Oregon 1.94 points better than #7 Texas, similar gap to Texas vs OU (who interestingly is ranked 8 right behind Texas - big drop off there). SP+ has Oregon 2.5 points better than #7 Texas, enormous gap after Bama who is basically tied with Texas so no real comp. FPI has #3 Oregon 2.8 points better than #7 Texas, a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND (interestingly top 10 seems to be where most ratings are falling off a cliff) The FEI gap between #2 Oregon and #7 Texas is equal to that between Texas and #21 USC/#22 Clemson. #5 Texas is marginally ahead of #7 Oregon in Massey's ratings (8.88 vs 8.85, which is really a T-6 with Washington), which measure past performance, but Oregon has a power rating 2 points higher, again slightly bigger than the gap between Texas and OU. KFord has #3 Oregon rated 2.3 points higher than #7 Texas, also a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND. Analytics generally suggest Oregon would be a pick'em against Texas on the road and provide a general consensus that one is a top 4 team and one isn't. That is a notable advantage in the context of picking the top 4 teams.

This is 100% true, have said it before myself. Texas-Kansas would have been a very interesting game. And I think it would have better prepped Texas for Gabriel the next week.

If you think a bunch of midwestern kids weren't motivated to play in a rivalry game in a snowstorm, I don't know what to tell you.

Stop being a melodramatic aggy

Bama needs help to beat Georgia.

Same as it ever was.

Wow, I just looked up their schedule. vs Miami vs aggy vs UCF vs LSU vs Ole Miss Georgia in Jacksonville at Tennessee at FSU at Texas That is fucking crazy

Five of Texas’s 12 wins would be against top 25 teams in exceeding postgame win probability lol

The Big 12 has a team that got demolished by a .500 Sun Belt team in the championship game and a team that scored 7 points on Ohio (not State) in the 4 spot at 6-3. The Big 12 has six G5/FCS losses to the PAC 12’s two, a lower overall and P5 OOC winning percentage, and is 1-3 against the PAC 12. Further, to lean on analytics to prop up the Big 12 and then disregard them when arguing that Texas is better than Oregon for a playoff spot despite Oregon’s notable edge in such rankings is logically inconsistent. I don’t think overall conference strength matters and I’m not the one of the people keeps bringing it up with the “it’s bullshit a PAC 12 team is ahead of Texas” bit. As I said before I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two leagues but we don’t get to throw stones at the PAC 12 this year. The point below is the salient one to me - Texas has a tougher schedule than Oregon, team to team. Like a said I’m not the one who brought it up originally, the point keeps coming up as if it means something. Should and will are two different things. They were above Texas in the last set of rankings and added a ranked win. Texas isn’t jumping them this week. There needs to be some sort of material shift in how one or both teams are seen for that to happen.

Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.

I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

I think Texas can and ultimately will win with some cushion because I trust them to come out sharp, but I’d still be mf elated with a 1-point win. It’s a championship game. Most of this roster hasn’t been here. OSU has churned so much that I think that’s probably true of them too. Texas has the better roster but Gundy is the one who has competed with these stakes as a HC, not Sark. Weird shit can and probably will happen.

Absolutely. I’d just add that he was starting from a pretty significant deficit relative to most RS FR when he arrived given his path, and it showed and still does to a lesser extent. But the process will benefit him in the long run. Beyond wanting a veteran QB next as a Texas fan, I think it’s very obvious another year in college working with Sark would benefit not just his draft stock but his full pro career greatly.

I don’t see how Murphy can not declare at this point. He’s not going to grow three inches over the next year and his draft stock is essentially at its peak

On offense that is Majors, maaaayyybbee Sanders but I doubt it. On defense I don’t even know. Watts? Catalon? Collins or Carter maybe but they aren’t starters. I’m going Majors just because the idea of leaving early in the first place was puzzling.

Let’s just hope they haven’t employed Kale Gundy to steal signs

It's funny in hindsight knowing no one was hurt but that is terrifying. Venables or anyone else who got caught on the ground could have been really, seriously hurt.

Not surprised. That has to be the pitch from Bo Davis, PK, and Sark. DL depth is iffy next year and bringing him back would be huge. He has played pretty well this year, he is just behind two of the best in the sport. I don't think he has the upside Sweat has as an anchor/run defender just based on sheer size and physical power but he has the tools to be n even more productive pass rusher. And if he puts together a strong year in the SEC as a true starter, the NFL will be salivating because you know his measurables will be great.

I think more than anything it was the game Sark kept calling slow developing deep shots with a QB that couldn’t hit them, in 20 mph winds in that weirdly oriented stadium at that.

Do you like money?

This won’t be another Tech score line simply because Texas had multiple low probability TD’s (returns, Jett Bush INT) that are unlikely to be recreated. And OSU is not going to quit in the middle of the game like Tech did. That said I am really not a buyer on OSU. Like Tech, Gordon is a bona fide stud and there is a whole lot of meh otherwise. I have a hard time seeing them hang with Texas unless Texas is doing it for them with turnovers, reverting to soft coverages and conceding underneath throws, etc. So I could see a similar, grind them down game script even if the score line is not as gaudy. Scheming up points early against OSU has not been a problem for Sark. I expect Texas will have a sizable lead in the late first/early second half. Whether this game is a laugher or turns into a fourth quarter dogfight will depend on that “middle eight.” If Texas lets them back in the game momentum will flip and it’s going to the wire as we’ve seen before. If not, the rout is on. Famous last words, but I just don’t see much of a viable path to victory for OSU unless Texas just fumbles the bag big time. With the focus they have shown over the past couple weeks I don’t get the feeling they are going to do that. This is a player led group and they see the goal they have worked for sitting in front of them for the taking. Texas: 34 OSU: 20 Total Rushing: 324 yards