gmr548

Eh. I think it’s more the fanbase and the media seeing the 5 star rating and taking that as gospel as opposed to thinking about anything in context. He missed a ton of time in HS and worked the scout team at Ohio State for a year. He was a project when he showed up at Texas and was never going to be an immediate savior. He is also clearly not a Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, or Andrew Luck type home run as a prospect. The recruiting rating was just off. He still has a lot of pro potential but he’d get eaten alive in the NFL next season. Coming back would benefit him to continue to develop his processing ability and deep accuracy in a pro style offense.

He’ll be the next coach at Arkansas

Yeah I mistyped, I was referring to Oregon as the favorite. Crazy swing from dead even to -9.5 in six weeks

Has it?

Should have one upped them and retorted, “but Texas lost to the team that beat the team that beat Bama”

FSU losing is still the path of least resistance for Texas. SEC, Michigan, PAC, Texas. Easy four that no one really argues with. Makes other results basically irrelevant.

Honestly, if UW-Oregon is another last possession/play type finish with Oregon in the right side of it this time, and the rest of the ganes go as outlined, I do think that is logically consistent from where their rankings are likely to be this week. And yet I think there’s zero chance 12-1 Washington gets in over Texas. What a dumb sport lol

No they wouldn’t.

I’ll say I’m coming around to the idea that Texas could jump Oregon if - and only if - Alabama beats Georgia. It would be hard to keep Alabama’s body of work out of the top four there and perhaps the increased value of Texas’s win at Bama vaults them over Oregon, who could be the one left holding the bag due to lower SOS.

The ranked bit is pretty disingenuous, KSU is liable to fall out of the rankings and Utah could re enter (they are right next to each other in the receiving votes field in the AP). I’d probably give Texas the nod over Oregon based on SOS but there’s not much about handling Oregon State or beating Washington that is going to prompt the committee to drop Oregon below Texas at this point. Maybe Bama beats Georgia by multiple possessions and that win looks significantly better, but that’s about it. Also that Bama team yesterday isn’t beating Georgia lol

Maybe so. It’s just wild that Washington was a 3 point favorite at home in their first meeting, implying the two teams are equals, and now six weeks later are a 9.5 point favorite. That’s a huge swing for that period of time without a major injury.

Smart move not to read the thread.

Jesus Oregon -9.5 is wild.

Man I forgot about Clemson-Duke lol. I would bet Clemson is at least one if not both of those losses. Not sure how much ND was favored over Louisville, that was pretty early in the year and could have met the criteria. EDIT: Interesting that USC-Utah qualifies. I am surprised they were favored by so much, feel like the book was written on USC by then and everyone knew that would be a tossup. Didn't realize they were such heavy favorites.

Absolutely. Look at the current rankings. Oregon's ahead now and their profile will only improve relative to Texas accounting for a win over Oregon State and then Washington. The decision has already been made. This is not rocket surgery.

I hope y'all brought enough drugs to share with the whole class. The PAC 12 champion is a lock.

Well it's not December yet, but roast away

Yeah I don't get the 2 SEC thinking. 12-1 UGA has home wins over Mizzou and Ole Miss. I guess Tennessee too because the committee keeps ranking them (y tho?). They have no conference championship and no OOC win of significance. They could back in if it is a complete chaos scenario where Texas and other favorites lose in CCGs but at that point what do we care?

Oregon is already ranked above Texas by the CFP committee and just added a 24 point win over a ranked team. They are playing an undefeated, top 4 team in the CCG while Texas is playing a team that is ranked because the committee has to get to 25 teams. Regardless of where one falls on whether a 12-1 Oregon should be ranked over a 12-1 Texas, everyone should understand that a 12-1 Oregon absolutely will be ranked over a 12-1 Texas in the final rankings. There's no rooting interest in the Pac 12 title game unless you think one is a better potential matchup than the other, or if you think one of Dubs or Puddles is a superior mascot (it's Dubs bitch).

Assuming wins for both next week: Oregon: 12-1. Three-point loss on the road as a three-point dog against a 12-1, top five rival who is otherwise undefeated, in a game that they coulda/shoulda/woulda won if not for some questionable coaching decisions; avenged that loss in a CCG and has beaten everyone they have played. Dominating wins over one, maybe two additional ranked teams, one of which was on the road. Has only been remotely challenged maybe two other times, once on the road at the beginning of the year and once against the reigning Heisman winner (and calling this being challenged is generous). Championship of maybe the deepest top to bottom league in the country this year. Consistently ranked in the top 5 by predictive analytics. Texas: 12-1. Four-point neutral site loss as a TD favorite against a ranked 10-2 rival with in an inflated record, in a game that they coulda/shoulda/woulda have won if they had not fucked up any of a half-dozen aspects of the game. 10-point road win over a 11-2/12-1, top ten team. Neutral site CCG win against a team in the 20's that was blown out by a Sun Belt team. Maybe one other ranked win, at home in OT, which they were both frankly lucky to get but also impressive in doing so with a backup QB. Several fourth quarter games with average to bad teams. Championship of probably the fourth best league in CFB. Consistently ranked in the the top 10 by predictive analytics. To your point on OOC wins/conference profile: The PAC 12 was 29-7 OOC. Two non-P5 losses, ASU (2-7 in league) got blanked by Fresno State and Stanford (2-7) lost to a FCS. 7-5 against P5 and 3-1 against Big 12. I agree there is no hugely impressive win there. Some decent ones but nothing to compare to Texas's win over Alabama. The Big 12 was 30-12, 6-6 against P5. Six non-P5 losses including the #2 seed losing 33-7 at home to a Sun Belt also ran. ISU finished fourth and also only scored 7 in a loss to Ohio (not State). Texas has the Bama win, which is absolutely to their credit individually, but there are no wins of significance for the rest of the conference and a slew of bad losses. And as mentioned above, 1-3 against the PAC 12. There's not a huge difference in profile there but to argue it's bullshit that a PAC team would be ranked ahead based on conference performance is not grounded in reality. The B12 has Texas's Bama win offset by several instances of shitting of the bed, including by teams that were in contention for the CCG or are playing in it. I don't understand how people conclude that Texas is definitively the better team and it would be bullshit to be ranked even one spot below Oregon unless it is just a burnt orange sunglasses thing. To be clear, I am not saying Oregon is definitively better than Texas. I might favor them slightly at a neutral site but frankly I think their profiles are very similar from a playoff perspective; but the bolded seems to be a pervasive line of thinking across the Texas fan base and seems very weird to me.

The finishes in the afternoon window were something. I don’t know that I have ever seen such high drama with such high stakes across three games playing out nearly simultaneously like that before.

I think Texas fans are fretting too much over the Bama thing. Yes - Bama would have the better body of work, but not by so much that it outweighs a two score Texas win in Tuscaloosa. Regardless, I do not think we are going to find out. Georgia has shown they have an extra gear and I don’t think Bama can hang with that for four quarters.

I mean you could have said this about multiple Texas opponents who went on to throw the ball all over the place. Last week’s defensive game plan was encouraging though. I think this game depends almost entirely on Texas - their game plan, their mentality, their execution. If Texas plays and coaches their A game or close to it, OSU can’t hang. If it’s another OU game with sloppy execution, turnovers, passive defense, weird coaching decisions, etc. then they can definitely get themselves beat. The bell curve of possible outcomes also has a pretty long skew toward a blowout in Texas’s favor though.

The last four minutes of this game were so dumb lol. Bama was extremely fortunate to win