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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. gmr548
    2026 midterms are going to look a lot like 2018 because it's the same map, same unpopular president, and same political alignments. Republicans just won't pick up low hanging fruit in the Senate because there isn't any for them. Democrats will pick up two Senate seats tops in 2026. I don't think Iowa is realistic but they could get ME and NC to potentially have a shot at a majority in 2028 (WI and NC).
  2. gmr548
    Didn't know you were into that sort of thing.
  3. gmr548
    Trending R by just a couple seats but it's going to be a week or two as final results are tallied out west and in extremely close races all around. There is still an avenue, though I wouldn't hold your breath. It's honestly pretty odd; the shift at the presidential level is significant by today's polarized standards. Senate results have mostly converged within a point. And yet Democrats appear to have fought to more or less a stalemate in the House. Population trends over the rest of the decade are unlikely to simply be extrapolated 2021-23 trends. Similar directionally, sure, but not as extreme. Also GA and NC should not be called res states. Yes, they went GOP this round but their margins are in line with the Rust Belt and confirm battleground status.
  4. gmr548
    You've only got to go back 50-60 years to get to a point where no fault divorce was illegal, women could not have independent banking or credit accounts, there were no protections or rights with regard to reproductive healthcare, and public universities were male-only (whoop!). I guess I don't know whether you'd define that as sexual enslavement but it's certainly second class citizenship, and it's very obviously the goal. The edgy ones in the GOP sphere don't eve bother talking around it anymore.
  5. gmr548
    There's still a legitimate path to a Democratic House, but either way Democrats are going to dominate the 2026 midterms. I can tell you that right now just because we know that 1.) The midterm electorate favors Democrats now in the way it used to favor Republicans; and 2.) Trump will be an unpopular President. It basically won't matter what they trot out there. Democrats will have a major House majority after 2026. The Senate map is unfriendly and they'll net two seats, tops (NC and ME). That will put a check on the most batshit legislation but won't stop anything when it comes to establishing an extremely right-wing judiciary.
  6. gmr548
    I'm not sure I buy that another milquetoast, Republican lite appeal is the play after several cycles of underperformance and defeat with that approach. We're not going to out-Republican them and that's not even a goal really worth winning for. There has to be a clear moral contrast and a push for structural reform. Trump is a symptom, not a disease. Harris was a good candidate in the context. She was dealt a tough hand, unprecedented in modern history. Hell, she was the only choice with Biden stepping aside when he did. If Biden was going to step aside, 2023 was the time. That's on him and the Democratic Party more so than Harris. @aggie08 was correct in his assessment that Biden's legacy is going to go down the toilet. To be fair, the Democratic apparatus owns some blame there too. Biden would have won in 2016, but I don't know that the party was keen on him running.
  7. gmr548
    I just want be fair after clowning on you earlier - this is a good, insightful post.
  8. gmr548
    lol I'm sorry do you think this is this some kind of gotcha?
  9. gmr548
    Y'all are negging this but there is some truth to it. That doesn't necessarily excuse ignorance or worse at the individual level, but Dems got caught holding the post-COVID inflation bag and weren't able to competently message their way out of it. There's not really a reason to worry about any of them more than the other. Trump is going 7-7. I have not had a burning desire to move back to TX but it's pretty sad to know moving home is functionally off the table as a 30-something considering having children. Cult 45 and running a black woman in the south. Sure hope so. Really need Democrats to flip the House. They are holding up okay so far. At an absolute minimum, Ukraine and the judiciary are fucked, and whatever Biden was able to get Israel to hold off on is now on the table. I do have a feeling we just cemented our fate as a dysfunctional failed state for the rest of my life.
  10. gmr548
    For the record I don't think she's done in PA specifically but the path to 270 is extremely narrow from this vantage point.
  11. gmr548
    You have a well established track record of being fantastically wrong, and low and behold, Philly is 2/3rds in and Allegheny is 91%.
  12. gmr548
    Absolutely, among other things. This is an ugly, ugly country and society.
  13. gmr548
    Best I can do is the burgeoning liberal paradise of Western Oklahoma,
  14. gmr548
    The campaign is the platform to some degree so they can be hard to separate. In general I agree, the issues where Democrats are weakest is where they try to be Republican lite. There is backlash against incumbent governments across the western world coming out of post-COVID inflation and general degradation of the social contract. The US is not immune to that. I do not believe this is a HRC situation. Yes, the noted Trump states of IL, VA, NJ, NY, DE, VT, etc.
  15. gmr548
    The idea of holding on to AZ while losing GA, WI, and especially NV doesn't really square. We'll see I guess. Looking bleak.
  16. gmr548
    Yeah I think we're done here.
  17. gmr548
    I'd have said this is an absurd map and it still probably is, but with about half the vote in, Harris is running ahead of Biden in Maricopa and Pima counties in AZ. AKA where everyone lives. Something to keep an eye on.
  18. gmr548
    Virginia looks atrocious on margin.
  19. gmr548
    Southern and northern college educated whites behave differently in elections. That's basically the Democratic path at this point.
  20. gmr548
    GA's going to be close but I don't think she gets there. Some promising numbers in the midwest.
  21. gmr548
    They do this with Virginia every year. Those red counties come in, it's close in a horserace sense, but apply some basic math on and you know the winner. Trump + 9 in Texas is... disappointing, but not surprising. Same thing as Florida, post-COVID. Red California.
  22. gmr548
    NC Gov called for Stein with must 25% of the vote. Stein is running about 7 points in front of Harris so far.
  23. gmr548
    App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, potential expansion with Northern Arizona and Nevada - Reno
  24. gmr548
    They're worth paying attention to, not necessarily because Harris will win (she won't) but the margins can tell you if she's got a real shot in WI/MI/PA.
  25. gmr548
    I think people expected not to lose Florida by 13. That's a bit of a problem. I think forecasts like the NYT needle or 538 are probably overweighting that result a little bit but it's absolutely a bad sign for the rest of the Sun Belt swing states even if you buy that Florida is the GOP NY now - which I do.

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