gmr548

I think people expected not to lose Florida by 13. That's a bit of a problem. I think forecasts like the NYT needle or 538 are probably overweighting that result a little bit but it's absolutely a bad sign for the rest of the Sun Belt swing states even if you buy that Florida is the GOP NY now - which I do.

This the game day thread? GA looks rough but need to see more of Atlanta come in. I don't hate where NC's at. Too early to infer anything significant in the rust belt. Hamilton County, IN gets mentioned a lot as a midwestern suburban bellwether and Harris is running marginaly better than Biden there with 75% of votes in.

It was Florida + the margin in Ohio. I remember it vividly. I kept watching to see if she could pull out WI/MI/PA but I knew in my mind pretty early on.

lmao what Look, I can buy the "R's have cannibalized their ED vote" line of thinking because a reversion to the mean makes sense but this is more than a little selectively interpreting data with the comparisons to 2020 ED specifically. We don't know shit about fuck. It would be a little weird if it didn't given it surpassed NY in the 2020 Census and has more EVs now. So basically they just submitted a Surly post chosen at random,

Shit like this last part and the GA polling place threats is what worries me more than anything today. I know those were the Russians, but I do not have a lot of trust that Cult 45 won't get violent, even if only sporadically. Obviously the outcome matters a great deal in practical terms, but the "soul" of the country, as Joe Biden would put it, is what it is. Regardless of who wins, we are a country where damn near half of the electorate has not only voted for, but enthusiastically embraced fascism in three consecutive elections. That is something we are going to have to grapple with even if Harris wins by what qualifies as a comfortable margin by today's standards. I mean he didn't need to sell me on Harris but okay. lol at the Montgomery County cutoff being Abbott by < 25. Never change aggy. I'm finance-adjacent in commercial real estate and the NY/DC corporate/finance/political class consensus that it's going to be Trump has felt really weird to me since Harris's initial surge. Inverse 2016-ish to be honest. No one has ever really accused that crowd of being in touch with the rest of the country though so honestly, if anything (and I don't really put any stock in it at all) it's heartening. Trump has probably posted in the thread about being able to take a chimp in a fight. "Probably" is doing all the work here. Trump can win AZ/GA 100-0 and if he loses MI/WI/PA it won't matter. Speaking of lost games, love the resolve you're showing by being here. I don't know if I'd be ready to put myself out there again if South Carolina hung 27 unanswered on my team just a few days ago. Glad to have you back.

I think the only thing that could get you banned there is acknowledging a Harris win, should it happen.

Requoting because OU sucks. What exactly is there to attack? She could start with Norman? THIS. It's kind of a hard feeling to articulate but this is something I've noticed, and multiple friends have remarked to me independently. Texas has always been culturally conservative, undeniably so, but the Texas I grew up in was a live and let live place. Even as the religious far right really took hold of the GOP in the Bush years, and the GOP took full control of the state under Obama and started going full Loony Toons... SCOTUS generally kept things in check. There was a tolerable baseline. Now? The guardrails are gone, the rage and hatred are palpable, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, because even if Harris or Allred by some miracle win this cycle, the GOP still has an iron grip on the state government and it's likely to be at least a decade before SCOTUS is anything but a Christofascist rubber stamp. Really letting his Nuttycombes hang with a GA 8/10 Democratic win prob.

This is worth both spiking global carbon emissions to feed AI's immense appetite for energy and the inevitable Skynet hammer drop.

Well Trump's obviously not a Texas fan since he's not familiar with the obvious flaws in his argument known as Case McCoy and Chris Simms. Also, more contemporary, may I introduce Bronny James as evidence? This did not get enough love. Well played.

I was at the UW-USC game yesterday and would attribute it mostly to number 3. The defense wasn't great or anything but they kept UW in the 20's despite being -3 in the turnover margin. USC started a little slow but moved the ball well. Outganied UW by a healthy margin. I thought their QB missed several open WRs for big plays in the first half (they probably should have emphasized the running game sooner) and of course there were the three INTs. One was a tip if I recall - shit happens - but the other two were not good.

White Southern American Christianity was on the front lines defending slavery, Jim Crow, and now Trump. To take any position other than the one that results in the most regressive, stratified society would be inconsistent with historical norms. I don't know why this has surprised anyone. They have been telling us who they are for 200 years.

Probably because Kamala voters went to enjoy a football game, Clay, you mush-brained fucking moron.

Uh, I'll say it.

Texas will win, but it'll probably be frustratingly close with a clunky, conservative offense that doesn't bother trying to stretch the field much. Ewers doesn't throw the bonehead downfield picks Beck does though.

- Quinn Ewers, probably

Jesus Christ, Beck is melting down now. The silver lining of the Georgia loss - I figured there would be a Sark special this year that ended up in an inexplicable loss. The possibility never really occurred to me that Georgia could fall into that category but perhaps it does and it's out of the system.

Ole Miss humiliated Arkansas with downfield passing and Texas will manage to find a dogfight out of that game.

Georgia is still likely to win this comfortably but yeah that sequence irritates the healing wounds from the Georgia game. Pretty sure even Ewers would have hit that one though, Georgia defense just caught with their pants down.

Have it on, not paying a ton of attention but getting outgained 131-26 in the first quarter is porbably not a great way for Florida to stay in it. That Carson Beck special INT is though. Woof.

x, x, x, x, 3, 1, 4, 2, 5 No interviews. Respect my decision. Do you want Chili's to call the Feds and report suspicious election-focused organizing of creepy white men from the internet? Love that we have to treat the second largest state in the union like a third world country. She can say "Actually, y'all, reflecting on the past couple weeks this fucking guy is certifiably crazy and a threat to every one of our goals. I know it's underwhelming, but I'm suspending my campaign and asking you to vote for Kamala Harris. We will keep the pressure on her and Democrats but Trump is an unacceptable risk." Green Party voters are highly online and that would have high visibility among her voters, and would certainly move a chunk of them. Many, probably the majority, would ignore it and say she sold out. It would still net Harris votes though. She won't do it, but she could. They won't if it's Trump +8-10 or something but at Trump +3 it's believable. Sherrod Brown is one of those incumbent Senators with a distinct brand in his state and he is a progressive populist, which plays well. OH, especially northeast OH, is anti-immigrant/trade but still not as broadly socially conservative as the south or Indiana/Iowa. The culture war stuff is not quite as salient there. Also, yeah, Moreno is not a great candidate.

Rather than net zero, isn't Trump's best case netting votes between peeling off some degree of black/latino support while only giving a little more ground with college educated whites? And then having a higher break on 2020 non-voters? And then a small degree of attrition from the Harris side?

If so, then I return to the rest of my post: he should keep his mouth shut because he's unpopular.

I always try to remind our Trumpy posters that they're aligning with Texags, hoping that might make them see the light. It does not. sigh I don't think it'll matter much electorally because anyone engaged enough to catch a Mike Johnson soundbite probably already voted. Still, what an own goal; also, the bill got 64 Senate votes. I'm pretty skeptical they could pass a repeal.