gmr548

THIS. GWB left office with disapproval pushing 70%. Trump or Biden could only dream of that. To the extent his endorsement would swing anyone, it's at least as likely to help Trump as it is Harris. It's also very possible he is voting Trump, because he fucks with the whole tax cuts and privatization over everything line of thinking.

Fewer shares on the right maybe makes it more sensitive to swings? Not familiar with the ins and outs of predict it. Edit: Wait, I bet it's some MAGA nutjobs holding out on the Michelle Obama bit. That might unironically be my answer.

Trump + 5.5 incoming lol The thing about PA is that if Harris loses it, it's hard to see a path where she both holds on to WI and MI, and picks up a GA/NC/AZ/NV combo to win. Like yes the path is mathematically there but demographically it's very dicey without PA. I haven't listed to Pod Save America in two months because every episode is just "Trump did XYZ!" This. Having benefitted and feeling like you benefitted are two different things. It's the latter that matters in an election though. I'd just add it depends on the margins. Trump +0.5 with a D +1 Senate race, maybe. But Gallego or Rosen aren't winning by 3, 5, 8, whatever while Trump wins those states. Obviously this is a generally fair analysis but I think it's important to point out Biden has been the most progressive POTUS on domestic policy since... LBJ? Tons of investment funneled into these communities. I don't think it's fair to say the working class has not benefitted from a Biden presidency; but I also agree perception is reality. Not only the margin, but having Trump capped at 48-49%. You'd think they could manufacture a 50%-51% sample in the rust belt states for the circle jerk. Knock on wood but today is the day where I'm starting to feel a hint of confidence. Maybe it's just the info bubble. You can still pick out data to make the case for Trump. But there are a lot of flashing red lights if I'm the Trump campaign.

With voting data out there now, I'm not sure assuming 2020-level turnout is correct. Kensington is not a nice neighborhood. That took dedication and a not insignificant amount of balls.

Your friends are stupid freaks and I highly recommend new ones.

Just filled out my WA mail ballot and will swing by a drop box tomorrow morning. Hope it doesn't get firebombed. I'd describe myself as ambivalent toward a Harris presidency but she's the no-brainer none the less. Categorically, I will not vote for a Republican, so obviously running up the score on the presidential and statewide races but there are some GOP-aligned ballot measures best described as ratfuckery that I had the pleasure of voting against; and while I'm a little iffy on the soon-to-be Governor, other statewide Democratic incumbents/candidates seem to be accomplished and well regarded in their fields. From what I can tell they stay in their lane, no Sid Miller or Ken Paxton nonsense either, which is refreshing. My understanding is the Seattle city council seat is pretty competitive too, so not a total waste of time. Pretty cool sticker too:

Alright, I've mostly been luring this thread lately but this is just garbage, as has been pointed out already. Are y'all doing this intentionally in bad faith or do you not understand income data? Y'all are comparing the average salary for an individual worker in 2024 to median household income in 2020. These are not the same data point and y'all know that. Or maybe you are both very stupid. Who knows? The Fidelity average salary you refer to is sourcing BLS data. Median weekly earnings in 2020 were $984: https://www.bls.gov/cps/aa2020/cpsaat37.htm Per the Census Bureau, your first data source median HH income was $80k for 2023. It will probably go up more for 2024. Plug that into in inflation calculator. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html Home buying doesn't math right now because it didn't math for a lot of the population for the last 5-10 years, and then there was a major increase in borrowing costs in a short period of time. And of course, housing is structurally undersupplied in most markets. But sure let's just fabricate some data to say the problem is on the demand side and real incomes have taken a nosedive, even though that's nonsense. Great job dipshits.

Because at the end of the day it's hopium. You can talk yourself into either candidate winning by selectively interpreting data.

This is Surly, I'd tread lightly with this talk. lmao of course it's Amarillo "Should I not have done that?" - Mack Brown I'm working Wednesday and figure everyone else is taking off or phoning it in as long as the election isn't called, so I'm not burning the vacation. Biden is a late silent, Trump is a very early boomer. Harris/Walz are technically very late boomers but you could argue culturally more Gen X.

Very reluctantly: Surprises on margin but not winner: KS, NM, UT This will more or less

Definitely. He's a narcissistic scumbag but Trump's brain is mush. He is a moron being manipulated to a desired end - a useful idiot. JD Vance very much knows what he is doing, that it's wrong, and is doing it anyway. He is a top tier piece of shit on the Abbot/Cruz/Rick Scott level. I do. Don't get it twisted, the bro demo Trump/Vance are chasing is primarialy the 18 to late 20's that don't remember 9/11, the Bush administration, and even a good chunk of Obama. The early-mid 30's have only ever known the GOP as extremely terrible Presidents in GWB and Trump, and are the then-youth vote that propelled Obama in '08. That is one of the most solidly Democratic cohorts in the country. Look, you did the right thing. You'll feel good about it on your deathbed. I want to give you genuine props for crossing over. I know American politics are essentially team sports fandom at this point and it's hard to do. But the fact of the matter is that anyone that recognizes what Trump is and continues to vote for him anyway out of blind partisanship is not a smart, independent thinker. That is the polar opposite.

The logical angle for me - not that I think the Trump campaign is driven by much more than hubris and Trump's own whims - is that maybe their internals show Harris up 270-268 and they think the same performance among the combo of working class and latino that is likely to net them a win in NV and AZ could be worth a shot at pressing in NM as a hail mary tipping point, if they feel they've done what they can in the rust belt. I can't think of a good reason to be in VA. Make sure your friend knows he's an enormous cuck for referring to Joe Biden as "his" president. A true patriot would never. How does it feel to have raised a narc?

The public polling reporting a narrative of Trump losing one of his two major advantages - and perhaps his most significant - and the race tightening or even tilting Trump doesn't square at all. They're obviously wrong about something, we'll see what about I guess. Good lord. I'm a millennial thank you very much. And as far as I'm concerned, this thread is unlikely to ever top that photo.

Since we're discussing SCOTUS, may want to start looking at EV math without CO. GOP will absolutely attempt to have the results invalidated over this and with this court you can't assume they will act in good faith.

I don't think it can be reasonably interpreted as anything else. It's an insane ruling; it won't have a notable impact on its own but it's absolutely an indicator that the GOP will be allowed to engage in any and all ratfuckery, and that the court will gladly put a thumb on the scale for them.

Yeah, all good, this doesn't totally scream "the bottom has fallen out with women" or anything. Most people won't see it or will gloss over it. The person consuming enough FOX News or whatever else to actually see it reported in detail... they were never voting Harris.

No, not really. The transcript of his comments is hard to understand and the right wing media outrage machine will just run with their preferred narrative as usual.

The WA primary results are one of the primary copium data points. Essentially identical partisan splits to 2020.

If there's a population where Trump has lost ground over the past four years it's college educated whites. That's a notably larger share of the population in TX than in GA or AZ. Texas has continued to import demos relatively unfriendly to Trump including college grads, young people, Asian people, etc. Democrats losing ground with black and latino voters is obviously not helpful in TX, but especially with the latter Texas may have been the tip of the spear there. I don't know how much more slippage we'll see. I guess what I'm saying is that it's not totally implausible based on Demographic makeup and of course the compounding negatives of Cruz and Trump that TX could fall into the same tilt R tier as GA and AZ seem destined for.

For one, that is so dumb. The whole point of a 401k is tax-free growth. Even if she wanted to (she doesn't) enact that political deathwish of a policy, such legislation would never pass. For two, even if she did, you can tolerate... *gestures broadly at Trump* but not a hypothetical tax on capital gains in SWA-flying 401k?

Could be referencing crosstabs of recent polls.

Uh, do we know that? Plenty of former Democrats turned Cult 45 members that have never bothered to update their registration.

Those are almost certainly national numbers because the idea of that many major pollsters conducting exit polls on Texas specifically is silly.

The same thing that drives Trump's overperformance relative to downballot Republicans since 2016. Voter: "TRUMPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!" Does not complete rest of ballot/poll.