Trynapigdog

Picks for 8/11 BAL/SEA NRFI -110 PIT/CIN YRFI -113 BOS/DET +100 HOU/LAA -110 CHW/MIL -113

Ooof. 1-3 yesterday. Only two picks for today, 8/10/23 MIN/DET -105 WAS/PHI +102

Picks for 8/9/23 CIN/MIA YRFI -127 CLE/TOR NRFI -120 NYM/CHC YRFI -112 ARI/LAD YRFI -121

Went 3-1 yesterday plus one rainout/no action. Last Friday we went 0-4. System is 27-22 entering 8/8/23. Picks for 8/8/23 DET/MIN NRFI -125 TB/STL YRFI -108 PIT/ATL NRFI +115 BOS/KC YRFI -125 CLE/TOR NRFI -113

Picks for 8/7/23 WAS/PHI NRFI +114 MIA/CIN YRFI -127 ATL/PIT NRFI -105 NYY/CHW NRFI -121 SF/LAA YRFI +106

Went 3-1 yesterday. System is 24-17. NRFI picks for 8/4/23. KC/PHI NRFI +107 NYM/BAL YRFI -118 MIS/TX NRFI -105 LAD/SD YRFI -110

System went 4-2 yesterday if you were able to get the team specific YRFI, otherwise went 3-2. Picks for 8/3/23 TOR/BOS NRFI -118 STL/MIN NRFI -104 LAA/STL NRFI -120 LAD/OAK YRFI -118 System is 21-16.

Damn. I forgot to post picks for yesterday. System went 3-2 yesterday. 8/1/23 MIN/PHI NRFI -130 —— win PIT/DET -110 YRFI —- lose ATL/LAA YRFI -109 —- win SEA/BOS NRFI -125 —- lose SF/ARI NRFI -135 —-lose System is 17-14 entering Wednesday, 8/2/23. Picks for 8/2/23 ATL/LAA YRFI -130 SEA/BOS NRFI -118 MIA/PHI NRFI -130 NYY/TB NRFI -122 STL/MIN NRFI +100 Also, SD Padres team-specific YRFI vs the Rockies +145. He recommended hedging with SD/COL NRFI. I don’t see the team specific NRFI on my book right now so I can’t play that one. Good luck all.

NRFI system went 13-9 last week. Picks for 7/31/23: BAL/TOR NRFI +105 LAA/ATL YRFI -127 CLE/HOU YRFI -118 BOS/SEA NRFI -120

Shit. Got swept yesterday (CLE/CHW NRFI; WAS/NYM YRFI; game 1 LAA YRFI; game 2 LAA/DET YRFI) Back at it again today. Here are the picks for 7/28/23. PHI/PIT NRFI -105 TB/HOU YRFI -115 TEX/SD NRFI -115 CIN/LAD YRFI -140 BOS/SF YRFI

Billy Ward’s NRFI picks 7/26/23 MIN/SEA NRFI -115 SD/PIT YRFI -110 PHI/BAL NRFI +105 DET/LAA YRFI -104 CHW/CHC YRFI -104

I’ve been tailing Billy Ward from Action network on his NRFI/YRFI bets throughout the week. His description is below. I don’t get to them everyday but today his system went 4 - 1. I missed out on the 4-0 opportunity yesterday. The juice can hurt if you hit a bad losing streak but overall it’s been a good strategy. I’ll try and keep track of the system on here and see what shakes out. ————O ———— The Model. The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the “when” rather than “how many.” Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice. That’s only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team’s total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team. This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night’s game. The Picks With all of the picks below, I’ll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I’d bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that. Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the “run equity” in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for. ————O ———— Picks for 7/24/23 MIN/SEA NRFI -120 - win HOU/TEX YRFI -106 - win MIL/CIN YRFI -115 - win TOR/LAD YRFI -129 - win System record: 4 - 0 - 0 Picks for 7/25/23 DET/LAA YRFI +100 - win NYY/NYM YRFI +100 - win CHC/CHW YFRI -108 - lose PIT/SD NRFI -105 - win TOR/LAD YRFI -115 - win System record: 8 - 1 - 0

The swing tip was showing promise at the driving range. I’m looking forward to putting it all together on the course this weekend. Thanks again for the clubs!

Right on. Thanks!

How about a 52, a 56, and the 3 wood.