I would like to see the staff hired and the Big 12 schedule laid out in sequence before predicting an exact W-L, and it's probably folly until the spring recruiting period and transfer portal moves are completed anyway, but I figure we'll be about the same: uneven, up-and-down, out of the conference title race early and then much better once the pressure's off. End up in something like the Alamo Bowl. Probably get boat-raced by OU instead of just losing to them close. Nine wins counting the bowl game. Pre-season Top 5 in 2022, leading to bitter disappointment when we go 8-5 that year and lose to Alabama by 38.
As usual, we'll spend a lot of time bemusedly asking "why are we doing <this> on offense? I thought we'd be doing <that>!"-- I mean, remember how it was Tom Herman's offense, not Tim Beck's, so don't worry, and how Sterlin Gilbert would open things up under Charlie so don't worry, and how Bryan Harsin would modernize Mack's offense so don't worry? I took that to heart, partly. I don't worry about it. I just assume it'll be another disappointment. Not a train wreck necessarily, maybe a fender bender in the HEB parking lot, but overall well short of the rhetorical expectations around here.
2023 recruiting will be fucking incredible, though, and that will repeat itself for about one more season before it starts to become obvious that Sarkisian isn't the guy and Texas isn't back and then it will start to fall off badly while we're debating who should replace our newest .675 / .700 no-championships coach.