Jump to content

Deguello

Full Members
  • Posts

    182
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Deguello

  1. Even if the 12-1 conference champ’s loss was to the 11-1 non-champ with a better resume? ”No circumstance” is bold.
  2. About as well as they can play, but still just a two score game.
  3. Only one foot down after the bobble. Should be incomplete even in this NFL.
  4. I am. Somehow. Beats the alternative.
  5. Missed sacks have a way of coming back to hurt you.
  6. Replay after the commercial showed it bouncing and no control, IMO.
  7. Garrett's not the problem. That’s entirely possible, but what’s he shown that should make anyone believe he’s the guy who can get it done? What are his innovations? What’s his philosophical approach here? I recognize that Dallas’ best defender is made of glass. And that the receiving corps isn’t elite. And that the OL has suffered injuries and illness. It’s not all on Garrett. But I don’t know that that means none of it is. And, yes, Jeff Fisher still sucks.
  8. And not relatively. A universal constant.
  9. Marginal utility theory says money, among other things, is relative. That said, the bonus isn’t a giant amount relative to his salary, but $65K (plus the $32.5K it guarantees) isn’t trivial for very many people. All the same, I’m glad he’ll be getting it.
  10. In my defense, I used it correctly.
  11. I wouldn’t mind an extra $1000 for doing what I was already hired to do, anyway. Especially if it guaranteed an extra $500.
  12. Deguello

    Horns Down

    That’s fine. They’ll be pretty scarce everywhere by Saturday at 3:00.
  13. 2008 Nebraska game sounded like the bands were playing in an empty 2A gym. It was loud, though.
  14. This game is, by definition, Texas’ penultimate showcase this season.
  15. They’re worried about horns down and alternate uniforms? Doesn’t exude confidence.
  16. Very similar to FartingMonk, above. Plus 5 true count. $200-$2400 spread. Split to four hands, doubled three of those. Seven max bets on the table. Dealer gets a five card 21 on a Stand 17 game.
  17. 6:5 is a negative expectation game absent godly rules and penetration with a huge bet spread that brings no heat. Unlikely. Then, again, I don’t go to Vegas to gamble, I go to play with an advantage, so my perspective may not be everyone’s.
  18. It’s a rare situation in which wider legality and more competition would drive “prices” up.
  19. Really, at this point those charts are the result of millions of rounds of simulations. I mean, yeah, the fact that you'll stand on a lot of hands when the dealer has a 2-6 makes sense. And you can maybe see why when the dealer's up card is a seven, standing on 16 is probably poor strategy. But a lot of is is simply "because that's what the math says." Deviations are definitely all about the math. For example, basic strategy, I think, says to hit a 10 vs. a 10. If the (hi lo) true count is 4+, the play is to double rather than hit. It's purely about the composition of the remaining cards and there isn't really anything to do except memorize that stuff. If you're playing for fun, basic strategy, even with a couple of mistakes per hundred hands, you can get the house edge down to .5% - .7%, and positive variance can have you walking out with some cash in the short term. I didn't bet any money until I could do 1000 hands with 0 errors, while implementing 27 count-based deviations from basic strategy. But I'm not playing for fun.
  20. God, I wish I could take someone with me to double on 12s and maybe take away some of the attention if I split 10s against 4-6 on the right counts. Blackjack is mathematically solved. I love it when people plays “feels” because that’s where a lot of the money the casinos pass on to me comes from.
  21. Yeah, but I do count... just not where there’s no reasonable EV.
×
×
  • Create New...