Deguello

Is the point of playing blackjack at Winstar just to kill some time and have some fun? I’ve never played there so I haven’t run any numbers, but it seems to me that the ante is a deal killer for actually being able to beat the game (short term positive variations aren’t beating the game). Even if you game the ante and bet close to, but under $50 and get your average bet over $50, you’re giving up close to 1%. You’re looking at +3 (hi lo) true counts just to be in positive territory at all, even if the rules are otherwise reasonable. Or am I missing something about the Winstar game, other than perhaps very high initial bets (does the ante ever go over $1)?

What’s the Bible say about lotteries? It’s a good SCOTUS decision and, ideally, Texas would let people make their own choices, foolish or otherwise. I’d lose my ass, so I wouldn’t be tempted anyway. I’d think there are plenty of nannystaters and cronies in Texas politics opposed to betting for reasons other than biblical, though. Edit: I’d be happy with some decent blackjack games in the state, honestly.

The composition of the remaining deck obviously is affected when someone hits or doesn’t. However, you don’t know the effect, and it could just as easily help as hurt even in the short term. In the long term it doesn’t matter and, ultimately, your outcomes are determined by your plays, whether you believe someone else’s misplay took the dealer’s bust card, or whatever. Your argument, ultimately, isn’t really any different from claiming an extra guy at the table is causing you to lose because the cards are flowing differently. And it ignores that every win after the misplay was “caused” by the misplay just as surely as the loss you blame on the misplay. You don’t know the order of the cards. The “flow of the cards” is one of the biggest fallacies/superstitions in the game. It simply isn’t relevant to your EV.

If I get what you’re asking, it’s because you’re seeing slightly fewer cards the closer you are to first base, so your deviations are going to be slightly less well-informed. Honestly, I think you’re playing with a positive EV, worrying about which seat you have is probably costing you money compared to the minuscule difference your preferred seat would make.

If the dealer didn’t go last, everyone after the dealer would draw to try to beat him, even on a 19 vs. a 20. There’d be no actual game. And the dealer draws according to the rules of the table, regardless of what other players have done. On a hard 14-16 with basic strategy, you’re hitting if the dealer is showing a 7+. Even with counting and deviations, you’re mostly hitting in those situations. Sure, any particular hit will be luck, but over time the mathematically valid approach will give the best chance for success. The main advantages for the dealer are that his plays are given and that unless the house has done something really stupid, it probably has at least a .5% advantage over even a flawless basic strategy player. And that very few people can even play basic strategy flawlessly. If you’re going to beat the dealer, you’re going to have to count, vary your bets, and do so without getting backed off. Whether some ploppy plays poorly or not won’t affect that in the long run and, either way, is about as likely to help you as hurt, you just notice the hurt more often.

The math can say to split 10s vs. a 4-6 with a high enough true count. Now, I almost never do it unless I'm about to leave anyway since there's more to it than math. May be "stupid" from a heat standpoint, but not from a gaming standpoint. Also, some deviations say to hit a 12 against a 4 with a negative running count, so there's that. Really, though, other players are only affecting their own expected value in the long run. They could take your bust card just as easily as the dealers, or whatever.