hawkfan

One of the most interesting things to think about with the future of college football (in my mind) is how AI is likely going to destroy the current college model. GPT-4, which your can subscribe to for $20 per month, can already score in the 90th percentile on the bar exam. Everyone thinks the bubble is these college TV deals, what if the actual bubble is the cost of tuition and all these schools are about to get destroyed by technology? For a century, you paid an obscene amount of money to go to the schools because they could provide students with knowledge that would improve their lives. What if the cost of knowledge is about to go to zero?

This is exactly what I think happens, B1G/SEC take what they want, then the B12 can hand pick what's left - then you'll finally have some stability in the sport for awhile.

ND & Miami were just given AAU status this year. FSU is working towards it, and they have the demographics where the presidents would look the other way. I don't think that's true with Clemson, maybe I'm wrong. The B1G would press hard for UNC/UVA, especially if they could get them below full share until the next TV contract - someone has to lose football games too, and be better in other sports, plus they're perfect academic fits Once the B1G goes to 10/11 conference games, it's going to get real tough for ND to fill it's schedule without joining a conference. And ironically, the only non-regional option for them will be the B1G if they grab a southern wing from the ACC.

Clemson is in a worse spot than FSU/Miami IMO. They aren't an academic fit in the B1G and they aren't as attractive demographically as FSU/Miami. If there's any truth to that rumor, they might sense that and view this as a desperation play. On the flip side, for the B1G, if they can grab the flagship school in North Carolina, Virginia, and South Carolina, that gives them a real footprint in the SE. If the B1G has no desire to create permanent divisions, you could add FSU/Miami/Clemson/UNC/UVA/ND to get to 24 and be done with it.

I've often thought it would make sense for big schools to schedule an actual televised spring game against an FCS opponent, maybe do the same to conclude fall camp as well to get the tune up game in before the real thing starts.

The biggest disagreement I think we have is that if you follow the money, 10/11 conference games will be inevitable. The networks don't give a fuck about 3/4 OOC games, most of which are against bumfuck FCS University. In a 24 school conference they'll prefer 10/11 weeks of prime match ups, and once the ACC dies, it doesn't really matter what the SEC does, 4-6 schools are getting in the playoff from the B1G regardless of their record - I think it's likely that in the near future the schedules get tougher and we regularly see 9-3 or 8-4 teams make the playoff. And the SEC will increase their number of conference games because they'll want ESPN to pay them more. With respect to scheduling, I still think an NFL style schedule is easiest to follow for fans. It also promotes more stability and regional flavor that made college football historically great. With 11 conference games, you can get into 4 divisions of 6 schools, you play the 5 other schools in your division every year, then you rotate the opposite division you play every season. I'm my example, Great Plains plays Pacific in 2024 (and Atlantic plays Great Lakes the same year), the team with the best records on each pairing meet in the CCG - you get a true conference champion decided on the field every year. Every school plays every other school once every three years (in other divisions) and completes a home and home with all the other schools on a six year rotation.

Agree, but if you can have both the TV money and the regional setup that has made college football great, why wouldn't you do that?

Call them whatever you want, it protects all the majorly important rivalries, makes geographic sense (grouping wise), and is mostly competitively balanced with the exception of one division. It seems crazy to me for the average fan to try and figure out scheduling or how you crown a conference champion in any other setup. If you end up destroying rivalries and geography completely, you're going to kill the golden goose IMO.

This is where the B1G has to stick the landing. If they want a true "national" conference, they need to be going to FSU/Miami and offering them both to get a strong presence in Florida, then probably offer UNC/UVA to get the flagship school in those two states. Once the ACC is dead, add ND/Stanford. Then go to 11 conference games and make regional divisions like an NFL lite that preserves close to all your important rivalries: Pacific Division Notre Dame USC UCLA Oregon Washington Stanford Great Plains Division Wisconsin Nebraska Iowa Minnesota Illinois Northwestern Great Lakes Division Ohio State Michigan Michigan State Purdue Indiana Rutgers Atlantic Division Penn State Florida State Miami North Carolina Virginia Maryland With 11 conference games you just play the 5 schools in your division + six from another division that rotates every year. Rutgers is the only school that feels truly out of place there, but fuck them. Notre Dame doesn't want to be viewed as "midwest", and would want to preserve the USC game, which the above accomplishes. The only negative of that path is the Great Plains Division is a little weak, but really there isn't a perfect way to balance competitive balance with preserving geography/rivalries, and since the schedule would be formed by the divisions rotating every year, one division being weaker than another isn't as big of a problem as it is right now where the B1G West is currently guaranteed a spot in the CCG - they'd have to earn it in the above model. I feel like permanent division become necessary after a conference gets this big - the scheduling gets too hard for fans to follow without them.

I find the timing of Notre Dame's invite to be interesting.

I really don't understand how this is turning out poorly for ISU. It's going to turn out a lot better than it looked like it was going to early on when UT/OU announced they were leaving. The only thing that sucks for the B12 is I'm sure they wish they could have a do over on UCF/Houston/Cincinnati probably. They'll almost surely get AZ/ASU/Colorado/Utah, and once the SEC/B1G take who they want from the ACC, they can probably grab Pitt/Louisville/Va Tech/Etc too. This will end up being the B1G/SEC as the top two, but the B12 will remain at the top level of CFB - just be thankful you aren't Washington State/Oregon State/Wake Forest/Boston College/Etc who won't have a seat at the table IMO.

Reading the tea leaves, it seems pretty clear to me Swarbrick understands where this is heading with his comments from back in April stating that the B1G/SEC have started the end game: https://footballscoop.com/news/notre-dame-ad-jack-swarbrick-great-split-coming-college-athletics I continue to believe all of the conference realignment moves for the last 50 years have always been as easy as following the money. It's pretty easy to see that the TV networks will eventually put more money out there for the B1G/SEC to dump G5/FCS games, and now that we're getting the expanded playoff and you'll see 3/4 loss teams get in, everyone will agree to comply for a pay raise from the networks. The SEC has resisted 9 conference games for a long time but will be about to do that for a raise. If I'm right with that assumption, and there are only two real power conferences playing 10-11 games against each other, ND is going to have a pretty tough time putting together a schedule. If they see the writing on the wall at this point, they can either join a conference in the coming few years and help shape what it will look like moving forward, or they can fight the good fight to stay independent until the end, which is likely the mid 2030's as Swarbrick references in the article. Either way, they're gonna have to be in one of the P2 conferences for scheduling purposes once the B1G/SEC are done taking what they want from the P12/ACC. I don't believe for a second that we'll ever see a playoff format where 6 conference champions automatically get in, because I think the money makes it very clear that doesn't make sense. The B1G/SEC can keep expanding and it will eventually just become top 12 rated teams get in with no auto bids, which will be 8+ B1G/SEC schools every season.

This, IMO, is the "give ND cover to join a conference" clause: ND would be excluded from a first round bye if Feldman has that correct.

Pretty much agree, I think the B1G will prioritize getting into all of NC, VA, GA, & FL - you can do that with UNC/UVA/Ga Tec/Miami. 24 would work pretty good for the B1G - you could go to 4 divisions of 6 and play 11 conference games where the divisions just rotate each year and that's how you determine the conference championship game participants. You could keep the divisions pretty geographical and preserve rivalries too. EDIT: I could also see the SEC grabbing Duke, Va Tech, Clemson, & FSU - half for content, half for new states (and Brand, in the case of Duke).

I don't get 4 + ND, not sure how you make 21 work: 3 plus ND seems like the obvious stopping point until the ACC is able to be dismantled. I hate the idea of Cal and Stanford. Cal doesn't get you anything you don't already get with Stanford in my view. I don't see how anything beyond 24 is workable from a scheduling standpoint, and I'd think you would want a minimum of 4 schools out of the ACC.

To me the map shows why it's critical that the B1G have both a West division and a SE division, and the SE division needs to have UVA/UNC/GT and either FSU/Miami (or both if that works out somehow, but I doubt the SEC is going to let that happen). The SEC will have no interest in GT and they won't take both FSU/Miami, the only real battle between the SEC/B1G will likely be UVA/UNC. UVA admin was supposedly wanting to join the B1G back when they added Maryland, no clue what UNC would prefer - athletic boosters would probably want SEC, admin would probably prefer B1G.

I don't want the B1G to add Cal, I'd be fine with Stanford/Washington/Oregon. Ideally you get ND at 20 (or 17, however you want to look at it), but if you need filler for #20, I'd prefer Utah or Colorado to Cal. Utah is interesting to me because there isn't a pro football team there, it's a fairly large market (top 40 TV market), it's a totally new time zone, and they are AAU. I think the 4 remaining spots go to UNC/UVA/GT/FSU down the road. FSU seems to make more sense in the SEC though, so I could see the B1G taking Miami instead.

It seems pretty clear to me at this point we will end up with 3 super conferences - the B1G, the SEC, and the P5 leftovers which will form their own league that will be worth of watching and granting access to a 12-16 school playoff. I think those 60-ish schools breaking away and agreeing to only play each other under a new governance structure is where this heads eventually. I could see eventually where they agree to an NFL-like preseason where power programs could host a couple pre-season games against G5/FCS schools that are used strictly to evaluate their roster.

538 with a numerical breakdown of expansion candidates for the B1G, interesting article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-should-the-big-ten-expand-next-we-crunched-the-numbers/ I agree the B1G's final number will be 24 with some of the ACC members after it finalizes a western expansion.

Yes, on campus playoff games will be wild and cool. Whether the expansion is to 12 or 16, first two rounds of games will be in college stadiums, hopefully the semi-finals too, with the natty hosted at a neutral site. If the top two seeds are guaranteed home field throughout, you can bet they won't be resting any starters. I kinda prefer a 12 school playoff, I feel like you could still do a limited bowl slate on NYE/NYD if the playoff was only 12 and it would still be interesting. Eliminate conference affiliations and just draft it so it's #13 vs #14 in one game, #15 vs #16 in the next, etc., etc. Natty should be played in the evening on NYD after the limited bowl slate concludes that day, so you still get a bunch of good college football on NYD as God intended.

We can probably make an educated guess that the $10B number that got thrown around was the "ND Clause".

Ok, lets assume USC does (and they very well might) - ND will still need to find 9/10 other teams to sign up for that. Half the SEC is balking at going up to 9 conference games, I don't imagine many of them will want to add ND in addition to 9/10 SEC games, which (IMO) will happen because the money will lead them there. And ND won't have the ACC to fall back on as a schedule crutch once it is picked apart by the SEC/B1G, I guess that's my ultimate point. ND is going to want to schedule games farther out than conference schedules are even available to have some degree of certainty it has a viable 12 game schedule. If you're in the B1G/SEC currently, it's not that big of a deal to schedule ND because you know what your schedule is going to look like well in advance and you can schedule cupcakes around ND to make a marquee non-con game not be a huge obstacle for your season. If there are no longer divisions, and schedules get generated only 12-24 months in advance (like some recent articles have hinted), that will also squeeze ND for quality opponents willing to take that risk. If ND believes that conferences will follow the TV money in the future and reduce the number of non-cons, it would make sense for them to join a conference pro-actively and have a say in how future rules/expansion look in said conference rather than wait until they're forced - the result ends up the same either way. I just don't see any future where the playoff doesn't expand to 12/16 AND conferences then expand their number of conference games to 10/11 games as a result because the TV money will be there. If both those things are true, ND's scheduling situation in the future becomes a dumpster fire to try and navigate.

I also didn't say threaten, I'm saying no one will have an incentive to add an additional really tough game to their schedule when they have to play 10/11 B1G/SEC games already and are already making piles of money and exposure. They can just tell ND they're happy to play them as part of their conference schedule, but they need to join to continue the rivalry - think most schools would feel that way once you've got 10/11 P5 games already.

Sure they'd have access to the postseason, good luck filling the schedule once the B1G/SEC go to 10/11 conference games though. I didn't say the "left behinds" wouldn't have access, they'd have "at large" access, they'd just be paid a lot less. I still fully expect a 12-16 school playoff.