hawkfan

Seems to me both? It seems like a near certainty that Oregon would have called the B1G after the UCLA/USC news broke, it also seems likely the talks wouldn't start at the presidential level. Not sure that report tells us anything that couldn't have already been assumed. The only real questions in the near term are: 1. What does ND want to do? If they can still fill their schedule without joining a conference, it seems likely that's what they'll do. I think we'll get to a point where the B1G/SEC increase the number of conference games to the point where ND will be forced to join, in the end I think it will be irrelevant though. More on that in a minute. 2. Is the ACC's GOR rock solid? It's clear Oregon/Washington would immediately jump at a B1G invite, and Stanford too probably (maybe not quite as eager). If ND doesn't move, the only other thing that would create more fireworks in the short term would be an out in the ACC's GOR. I don't think any of this will matter in 10-15 years because I think what will eventually happen after the B1G/SEC pick who they want out of the PAC/ACC, they'll eventually just combine into a single "league" for TV purposes that will be split between FOX/NBC/CBS/Disney and they'll share games with each other via a mega deal for all members who only play each other for the most part - maybe 10-11 conference games, while allowing a game or two against left behinds from the B12/ACC/PAC and maybe an NFL style preseason game or two (against G5/FCS), which will finally lead us to a place of stability longer term. If you got down to where 44 total got in, you could do a 44 school conference with four divisions of 11 schools - 10 conference games and full round robin with top seed auto-qualifiers going to each "division" champion. For the last 50 years it's been as easy as following consolidation and TV money, I kind of view something like that as the inevitable conclusion of all this.

Never claimed they'd be kicked out, and they're value is definitely not zero. But they're fucking idiots if they're complaining about the financing mechanism of their entry.

Speaking of the ACC falling apart: https://www.si.com/college/fsu/football/fsu-president-says-seminoles-will-be-very-aggressive-in-conference-realignment

TV subscribers aren't going to be as relevant moving forward as content that produces ratings, that much seems very clear. The B1G has large enough alumni bases in NYC without Rutgers, Rutgers might have pushed that over the finish line for the BTN 6 years ago, but in the current media climate, I don't believe they have the same value they had 6-7 years ago. You have to remember that the final B1G pry only has 20-24 spots in it, I'm not prioritizing Rutgers over any of the following: Oregon Washington Stanford North Carolina Virginia Georgia Tech Miami Florida State Notre Dame That's easily 9 schools who would offer more athletically than Rutgers, with probably only 8 spots left (if we assume the B1G/SEC end up taking what they want from the ACC). Academically, all of the above are a similar add to Rutgers with the exception of Miami, FSU, and ND. EDIT: And all the ACC schools above would end up protecting PSU, I know that's hindsight, but again, that's why I'm sure in hindsight they aren't thrilled about Rutgers.

Honestly, I wonder if the political drama playing out in a way that forces UCLA to stay wouldn't work out best for the B1G, you pretty much get LA with USC, and if UCLA is forced to stay you could grab Stanford instead to get the bay area exposure, then add Oregon/Washington and one of Colorado/Utah (in addition to ND) - both AAU members and add an entirely new time zone/state to the footprint. I feel like USC pretty much delivers LA. You could also stop at 18 with Oregon/Washington/Stanford if UCLA backed out and wait for ND. I highly doubt the politicians are going to force UCLA to stay back and bankrupt their athletic department, but it's a possible outcome.

Yeah, the obvious difference being that USC/UCLA are coming in the year a new TV contract starts and that contract is being negotiated on the open market with knowledge of their membership. Once the new deal was negotiated, they got the full share just like everyone else. That wasn't the case for any of Rutgers, Nebraska, or Maryland. And if any of them want to complain, I'm sure the conference would let them leave. Especially Rutgers, I'm sure the B1G front office would like a do over on that one anyway.

Been saying, this is what will eventually force ND to make a decision - if we go to a 12/16 school playoff, there's margin for error for the top teams to lose a couple games, going to 10+ conference games and getting rid of the cupcakes will make the TV partners happy, but will make it tough for ND to fill a schedule if both the B1G & SEC go to 10+ conference games:

I think it's more about blending the Oregon/Washington/Stanford types with better time slots in central/eastern time zones where they will see the biggest boost. Those schools will all rate much more highly playing a B1G school at 3:30 EST than they will playing each other at 10PM EST.

I bet that's an awkward meeting....

And that's without ND being a member....They've got built in escalators for expansion...

I agree there's no real urgency from the B1G at this point, there doesn't need to be, the new deal doesn't start until 2024. I disagree with your assessment on adding additional western schools though - the main reasons they haven't invited Oregon/Washington as of now is that they don't pay for themselves. The math changes though (I think) if you completely kill the PAC12 (thus eliminating their media contract entirely) & add ND/Stanford. I still think USC/UCLA being on a complete island would be a massive geographical clusterfuck for non-revenue sports, so adding a few more teams out west seems inevitable. If USC wants to tell Oregon to fuck right off it could be Colorado/Utah instead of Oregon/Washington (as there probably isn't that much of a difference - ND/Standford would be driving the revenue on the way to 20). I think the B1G going to 20 with ND + Stanford/Ore/UW makes a lot sense, then just sit and wait until the ACC GOR is close to over and take your pick of ACC schools to eventually get to 24 and get a presence in Florida/Georgia/North Carolina/Virginia. Ironically, once you're at 24 you can go back to four divisions of six schools that make a lot of geographic sense (for the most part), and scheduling works really well with 11 conference games (5 in division games + 6 from an opposing division that rotates every year).

SBJ reporting ND is probably looking at $60M per year and a push from NBC to fill it's schedule with more B1G opponents should it remain independent (scroll towards the middle of the article): https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/SB-Blogs/Newsletter-Media/2022/08/15.aspx

They love money more, as the events of the last 40 years have shown. When the networks offer to pay them more to get rid of the cupcakes and increase ratings, they will. There will be significantly less resistance to that once the playoff expands to 12/16 and everyone has more margin for error to play for the national title.

Like I said, ND won't make the decision based on money, they'll make it when conferences go to 10 conference games and they can't fill a schedule anymore outside the left behinds. They're not in a position where they have to make the move.... Yet.

The thing that will eventually force ND's hand won't be money or the playoffs, it will be the networks squeezing the B1G/SEC to ditch the shitty non conference games, plus 9/10 game conference schedules, which will inevitably lead to ND not having any (or many) opponents left in either league. That might seem far fetched today, but this entire thing has always been as easy as following the money, and conference games are where the money is at. ND can either join a league now, get paid along the way, and have a say in what their future conference looks like, or they can wait until it becomes really tough to fill their schedule and join then. I think the result ends up being the same either way.

CBS & NBC to both pay $350M, NBC will get to broadcast games on Peacock: https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/08/09/Media/ESPN-Big-Ten-TV-rights.aspx

NBC being north of CBS would be something...

ESPN is also officially out it appears:

ND directly addressing conference realignment tomorrow and the B1G's deal is not yet finalized.... Going to find out soon whether ND is going to make a move or not it appears:

One thing to think about is that if ESPN is completely cut out, that leaves all the B1G basketball up for grabs, perhaps CBS if getting a huge basketball package for that type of money.

Like I said, that CBS leak makes me think there's something else here we don't know about, this puts that into perspective:

I assume the OTA networks all want a piece of the expanded CFB playoff coming in a few years, wouldn't be shocked if the networks all want to work through the B1G to assure they get the number of games they want out of that deal. I'm convinced the biggest reason the expanded playoff didn't happen was because Fox wanted it to go to bid instead of expanding it and letting ESPN control the entire thing. Part of the B1G's numbers are likely that FOX/CBS/NBC are tired of ESPN owning the entire sport... Cutting ESPN off from the B1G changes that dynamic considerably, even more so if the B1G expands to 20 with ND and 3 additional partners.

Agreed, I just don't see the B1G having the lineup to fill out 3 national OTA games for the type of numbers being thrown around unless the networks know something we don't. It's either ND or maybe the B1G has agreed to play more conference games to increase ratings. It seems like we're missing something.

NBC national has never been the kind to go for "B prime" anything. I suspect they're being guaranteed the exclusive national B1G night game and that will be the #2 or #3 game each week.