hawkfan

They've always had the option to stay Indy, but if this report is accurate they also just lost their exclusive NBC/ND CFB arrangement. And of course, the money from the deal is going to be massively more than ND can make on their deal. If anything, NBC inking a primetime deal with the B1G makes me think it's more likely ND has given the networks a heads up they will be joining the B1G - tough for me to think there is enough content in the current B1G for 3 national OTA games. Add ND/Stanford/Oregon/Washington and there probably is.

You realize that everyone in the B1G is equal equity owners of the BTN right? I don't see them ever forfeiting that or voting themselves into less revenue. The Detroit Lions get paid the same as the New England Patriots to promote stability. What's created instability in college sports is the revenue gap between leagues. The only way that could conceivably happen would be if tOSU/UM/USC/PSU/Etc. have an opportunity to leave for more money, they don't have any leverage to get a bigger share of the pie unless that is a realistic possibility. If the SEC & B1G remain on equal revenue footing, they'll never go to unequal revenue sharing because I don't see Alabama/Georgia/Florida/Etc. wanting to go north or tOSU/UM/PSU/USC/etc. wanting to go south.

I don't see how WSU/OSU aren't going to end up in the MWC. I also don't see the value of adding Cal+Stanford for the B1G, just not big enough fan bases to justify both IMO.

That makes things pretty clean and pretty much resolves most loose ends outside the ACC.

Either conference can, that's my point. ND Joe made it sound like the SEC could somehow keep the ACC alive by not taking any action, which I don't see as a realistic option.

They really don't have a choice unless they're willing to take all 8 schools - someone is going to have to pay FSU/Clemson/Miami/UNC/UVA/Va Tech to keep them all happy. The B1G will get their pick of that group if the SEC doesn't extend an offer - SEC might as well move first and get who they want. None of those schools are saying no if the B1G extends an invite. Unless the SEC can convince ESPN to reopen their current ACC deal and fuck themselves by charitably giving the ACC more money (which they won't do, cuz shareholders), the ACC is dead no matter what happens.

I have a feeling this is giving ND the cover to make the decision. If the B1G goes scorched earth on the ACC, ND has no real choice left but to pick the B1G or SEC, and I imagine Warren realizes the B1G would be in a strong position to win that lotto with most of ND's historic rivals AND both CA/FL in the footprint.

Ummmm......No: https://www.on3.com/news/college-football-continues-attendance-slide-seventh-straight-season-sec-big-ten-big-12-pac-12-acc/ The B1G's 2021 average attendance was almost 20% higher than the B12's. The gap from the P12/ACC to the B12 is larger as the gap from the B12 to the B1G, but the B12 is pretty clearly in 3rd place by itself in "conference attendance battles", if that matters for whatever reason.

It won't stop at 18 is what I'm saying, that much seems very clear. And my working thesis is they won't leave USC/UCLA on that big of an island, that just doesn't function well - but Oregon/Stanford/Washington don't make financial sense until they've gotten a yes from ND, that's the main reason they haven't gotten the invite yet IMO. The initial reports were that the B1G was waiting on ND before any further expansion because they probably needed the domers for the math to work at 20. In order for the math to work at 24, I think 2 things would be required: 1. P12 and ACC contracts go to zero (freeing up $1B+ in network cash), while the B1G/SEC have a monopoly on the prime content. 2. Conference play goes to 11 games to get rid of most of the FCS/G5 games so the inventory is more valuable. Just my guess, but I think the math would work at 24 with those 2 assumptions.

That isn't aggressive. I still believe USC/UCLA need travel partners for this work smoothly for them long term. Stanford/Oregon/Washington make sense, but not without ND, that gets you to 20. Farther down the road, UNC/UVA/GT/Miami would give the B1G a strong southern footprint if he wants to be aggressive. It's becoming apparent to me this is going to end with 3 conferences that eventually just break away from the NCAA - the SEC, the B1G, and the left behinds that will be in a third national conference paid a lot less.

I would be shocked if that's not confirmation the B1G is going to 20 or 24.

Yeah, you're never going to see USC vs. Ohio State/Michigan/PSU at 7PST, that's always going to be an afternoon/early evening game. USC vs. Iowa/Michigan State/Nebraska when both teams are having 8-4 type years might be a good spot for that game to beat out any other game in that window, but wouldn't draw huge numbers in the afternoon.

Apparently the conference is involved with these discussions

But what are the options tho? Apparently tell ND they can join and you pay them $100M per year while everyone else gets $20M or something? That's the only way they'd consider it.

Lol, this is what happens right before your conference dies.

I actually view 12 as the most likely outcome because this has never been about determining a champion, it's always been as easy as following the money, and the networks want more highly rated games. If we assume this eventually leads to: 24 School B1G 20 School SEC 20 School left behind conference featuring P12/B12/ACC Remains I think a 12 school playoff will make the most sense because the B1G/SEC know they'll get most of those spots, but giving 3-4 to the outsiders helps them avoid anti-trust suits. I think we'll also get to a spot where those 64 schools break away and only schedule each other for the most part to maximize their TV ratings.

UVA was reportedly very interested in the B1G back when the B1G added Maryland, and I think UVA/UNC go together either way. If the B1G wants to get to that national footprint, extending it all the way to Florida would make sense, and ironically, once you get to 24, you can create geographic 6 school divisions and get back to a semi-geographical model. I think the B1G would make a hard push for UVA/UNC if they went that route though. If all it takes is 8 votes to dissolve the ACC, you could send UVA/UNC/GT/Miami to the B1G, FSU/Clemson/Va Tech/Duke to the SEC - then I could see the B1G rounding out west coast travel partners for USC/UCLA - adding Stanford/Oregon/Washington to finish off the P12 (with ND) to get to 24. With 6 school divisions, you'd pretty much have to go to 11 conference games, but the networks would also probably be willing to pay more for that, and that's probably where we're headed anyway. It feels to me more likely that the B1G could go to 24 and the SEC could go to 20 IF the money would work, and I wonder if it could should BOTH the PAC12 & ACC contracts basically get nuked, then a third 20-ish school conference forms between the desirable left behinds in the P12/B12/ACC. Basically take your current expanded B12, add Utah, Az, ASU, Colorado + Lousiville, Syracuse, Pitt, NC State? That gives you a third 20 school conference that would be competitive and interesting and gets you to 64 total schools in the top division. The only ones that get left out of the above scenario would be: - Oregon State - Washington State - California - Boston College - Wake Forest They would have been replaced in the final alignment by schools with more recent football success and/or better demographics, but if we get to a place where the ACC can be dissolved, we might get to a final alignment that looks something like the above more quickly than we would have previously thought.

So apparently it only takes 8 votes to dissolve the ACC conference? If that's correct, that really changes things. You can go 4 to the B1G and 4 to the SEC and networks could pretty much wash their hands of any future liabilities for the P12 or ACC.

Thinking about this a little more, since this is obviously only about TV ratings, we have to assume at some point most of the games against mid-majors/FCS schools are going to go away, right? I imagine the TV networks pay more for 11 conference games than they would for 9 + 3 games against the MWC/MAC/CUSA/Etc. The SEC probably doesn't have much incentive to go beyond 20 schools, but if 11 conference games is workable and the B1G wants to really build a national conference, they kind of do. I keep thinking about UNC/UVA because they both have top 10 endowments amongst public schools - they're a great academic fit in the B1G but just don't make sense in an expansion stopping at 20 - they could if it went to 24 though and we assume that there are no longer four power conferences, just the B1G/SEC and a 3rd super conference paid considerably less than the top 2. I still don't think USC/UCLA make a lot of sense unless they bring some travel partners. If you game out a move to 24 for the B1G it might look something like this: Pacifc USC Notre Dame UCLA Stanford Oregon Washington Great Plains Wisconsin Iowa Nebraska Minnesota Northwestern Illinois Great Lakes Ohio State Michigan Michigan State Purdue Indiana Rutgers Atlantic Penn State Miami Maryland Virginia North Carolina Georgia Tech There are two academic outliers there - Notre Dame & Miami. All the others fit the B1G's academic profile almost perfectly. If you played an 11 game conference schedule you'd just rotate divisions every year with no crossovers, almost all major traditional rivalries are preserved there, except Rutgers being an odd fit in the Great Lakes, but I don't think anyone gives a fuck about Rutgers. That would leave FSU/Clemson to the SEC as an obvious move, then if they wanted a foothold in Virginia/North Carolina, they could grab Va Tech/Duke. I don't think the SEC would have much of an incentive to go beyond 20, the B1G kind of does if they're trying to pull off a national conference w/ some regional flavor in the divisions.

Not sure I buy FSU for the B1G, UNC/UVA make a lot more sense as the first move.

I think eventually the B1G and SEC just go to 24 with an 11 game conference schedule and regional 6 school divisions that rotate each year.

If it ends in 2027 though, that would make a buyout much less of an obstacle vs 2036.

Yeah, and I think I've read that GOR requires like 75% or 80% of members agreeing to dissolve it, or something ridiculously high.

This seems like bullshit because even if ESPN voids the TV Deal, isn't the GOR between the school and the conference? Either way, UNC/UVA are the real targets in the ACC because those two are the heart of that conference.

I think if you're the B1G at this point you add UNC/UVA/GT with your next move and you force them to make that decision. If they go SEC, great. The B1G adds Miami or FSU and calls it a day. If they eventually get to 24, then you go back and add Oregon/Stanford/Washington/Utah to give USC/UCLA travel partners. That wouldn't make as much money, but would be great for having actual regional divisions in a national conference. They can go either way, but ND is going to be forced to stop fiddle fucking around and make a decision. We all know where this is going now. If the B1G did go to 24 you'd have to do an 11 game conference schedule and basically scrap non-cons. My best guess is ND wouldn't choose the SEC in that scenario, they aren't academically aligned, and they have the option to maintain some kind of national agreement with NBC in the B1G, which they won't have in an SEC that will be wholly owned by ESPN for a long time. They also have most of their biggest historical rivals in the B1G at this point with the USC addition.