hawkfan

Most from the PAC12... Wonder who the others are.

And exactly how are they going to maintain their athletic department with that strategy? Most projections I saw on Big12 TV numbers without UT/OU were well south of $20M per school. They're going to willingly go that path instead of calling the B1G? I don't think there's much value left in the P12 outside of Oregon/Washington.

Do you think they're going to stay in a PAC12 without USC/UCLA?

If they add ND, they clearly aren't stopping at 17 and Oregon and anyone left in the PAC12 is going to call them.

A lot more likely, no GOR to contend with.

Combine Wilner's "not done" comment with the Dinnich tweet about ND being able to leave and just having to pay the GOR fees on their non-revenue sports (which wouldn't be much), and I don't see how ND isn't the next one to come. I don't think anyone else in the ACC could get out quite that easy - I could be wrong, but Dinnich being an ESPN employee seems like a pretty good source on ND being able to get out cheap. Then you can add the remaining valuable properties in the PAC to get to 20, Oregon/Washington and then pick whoever you want for #20.

Cannot believe Kevin Warren kept this quiet:

If that Dinich quote is accurate you would have to believe the B1G grabs ND here to get to 17, then it's basically pick whoever you want to get to 20.

What are it's "Other Sports" worth? Lol.

Question for Texas fans - knowing that the B1G can probably now take their pick of the remaining PAC schools, would you prefer a B1G with USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington or the SEC? Not saying this is in the cards or anything, but reset the board and assume you hadn't announced your intent to join the SEC - would you prefer the SEC or 20 School B1G + USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington (and OU/UT)?

What choice will they have? They're going to have to pay the piper eventually. ND is currently making $20M per year, they'll make $80M-$100M per year in the B1G within two years - they'll have plenty of cash to negotiate a settlement. There is no way forward for independence at this point, they will either have to join the B1G or the SEC. Do they fit better with USC/UCLA/Michigan/Northwestern or Alabama/Florida/Georgia/Auburn? That's the only question that matters at this point.

You don't think ESPN would rather see Clemson/FSU/UNC/Uva playing in the SEC than the against Wake Forest, Boston College, Duke (football), Etc.?

ND's current TV deal for football is like $20M per year, according to Wilner, the B1G deal could be 5X that. https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1542589074770259968?s=20&t=A3WTpRZJ4TkjGG_MCaSQIQ

I'd be willing to bet ND's attorney's weren't dumb enough to not give them any outs, and even if they did, the difference in value on the contracts makes it pretty easy to negotiate a buyout. Keep in mind with this move it's likely that Clemson/FSU/UNC/UVA/Etc. are all going to want to kill the ACC to get in the SEC.

It's pretty clear Oregon/Washington are going to the B1G at this point, they probably needed to make it appear they had no other choice and forced USC/UCLA to announce first. Then the B1G tells ND to get on board or be the northern outpost school with high academic standards in the SEC and ND will likely say yes. Then add Stanford for the academic/travel bonus and be done with it.

This is still in play.

He very well might be full of shit, I've read the same from some tOSU guys that are supposedly credible (specifically with regard to USC). I don't trust much of what I read from unnamed sources, that said, it seems pretty obvious that's the path forward. Either they make a move, or Oregon/USC decide they don't really want to compete at the top level of CFB anymore with all the new NIL stuff. You can't make up $30M per year in TV money through boosters consistently, especially if you have a few down years. Again, this entire premise is built on the assumption that the Wilner article is accurate, but if it is, Oregon/USC pretty much have to leave the PAC. What other option do they have in the NIL era we're watching unfold? And I'm pretty confident TV networks would prefer the schools at the top of the P12 being in a conference with CST/EST time slots and strong viewership numbers. The biggest problem with the P12 currently is it's too many apathetic fan bases all in a shitty time slot - taking the best of the P12 and putting those schools in the B1G kind of kills two birds with one stone in that respect (blending the fan bases and time slots). I've not read the contract that Notre Dame signed with the ACC, so I don't pretend to be an expert. But to put things in perspective, they're currently getting paid about $15M per year in TV revenue from NBC (last I checked, maybe it's changed). If the B1G's new deal is somewhere in that $70M-$80M per school range as rumored, they're going to have a lot of money to work with to pay a liquidated damages for violating the contract. The schools that just left the AAC broke their GOR, perhaps it was constructed differently, but either way they settled (I know it was peanuts, but it's all relative). Most here would believe UT/OU could get out of the B12 if they had the financial incentive to do so, it's just a question of the price. You could also be correct that USC/Oregon might just leave now and the B1G makes it apparent they'll be back for more in 2035 or whenever it's financially convenient, I suppose that's possible too. I could see 18 making sense as a temporary placeholder to an eventual 20 w/ divisions - that would make sense as well. I think the only real valuable properties in the P12 from a TV standpoint are probably USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington.

According to his unnamed SOURCE!: He could very well be full of shit and LARPing, but again, the math points to much of what he says being logical. I don't get expansion by 4, that's doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Just go to 20 and everything should be pretty logical and easy to pull off from a scheduling standpoint. I think you probably do need ND for the money to work at 20 though.

Agreed, this entire realignment song and dance has been as simple as "follow the money" for 50+ years. Doing so leads you to think that the best content in the PAC & ACC are highly likely to head elsewhere. USC was reportedly not interested in signing the PAC12's new GOR until they had an idea of what kind money they'd get in the PAC12 - if that was what drove their decision making, how could they possibly sign one locking them in long term to $30M less per year than everyone in the B1G/SEC? He's a guy who claims to have SOURCES!, who know if he does or not, but rubber is about to meet the road on the B10's deal, that much is certain, and the PAC12 schools are probably coming to the realization they're fucked if they want to compete in football at the top level: If the B1G wanted to counter the SEC move, adding USC + ND would be a good/logical first step. I think USC would probably want something more logical for them from a travel standpoint though, and a 20 school B1G compromised of a PAC division of 5 of the original PAC8 would give them that, something like: Pacific Division USC UCLA Oregon Washington Stanford (5th doesn't really matter probably, first four would be the consensus I'd think, and the B1G presidents would cream themselves over Stanfords academic prestige) Great Plains Division Wisconsin Nebraska Iowa Minnesota Illinois Great Lakes Division Ohio State Michigan Michigan State Purdue Indiana Atlantic Division Penn State Notre Dame Northwestern Rutgers Maryland 9 conference games - you play everyone in your division, then everyone from another division that rotates every year. CCG ends up being the "Winner" of the two rotations so there would never be rematch in the CCG, but you end up playing everyone in the conference twice every 6 years. SEC could get to 20 or 24 with the best of the ACC (UNC, FSU, & Clemson would be their first picks, then whoever they'd like after that), then the remnants of the B12/PAC/ACC make up a third 20ish school conference that is paid less than the top two, but still operates at the top level and is a bit of a feeder league for recruits. The above makes sense to me if you follow the money, and I don't see a universe where Oregon/USC/ND/Clemson/FSU/UNC are OK just getting paid $30M less per year than everyone in the top two conferences. At some point, they'll act in self interest if that Wilner article is accurate and there is a $30M gap between the SEC/B1G and everyone else. I agree with the "Fuck ND" sentiment, but they aren't going to get left out, and they're now staring down a similar revenue gap vs the B1G/SEC as the other conferences if they pledge their allegiance to anyone other than the B1G/SEC. Their hand is going to be forced, Swarbrick acknowledged it publicly a couple months back: https://www.si.com/college/2022/04/23/notre-dame-jack-swarbrick-division-1-change I don't see the PAC schools or ND aligning themselves with the SEC from the academic standpoint if the B1G offers them an invite, and I don't see how the B1G can afford not to offer them an invite if they want to keep pace with the SEC. Going to be an interesting few years.

If this firm has any idea what it's doing, it appears the next PAC12 TV deal will pay their schools $30M less per school, per year than the SEC/B1G are projected to make by 2024-25, if that plays out, gotta think USC/Oregon, at a minimum, will be looking for an invite to the B10/SEC. I'm sure the ACC will be in a similarly weak position when they go back to the table too. https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/06/10/projecting-the-value-of-the-pac-12s-next-media-rights-contract-will-it-approach-the-sec-and-big-ten-deals/

When you only have four schools in that time zone, managing that problem is a lot easier than when the entire inventory has that problem (which is the PAC's current issue).