It's Kane Wommack vs. Diego Pavia in Tuscaloosa. There's a formula out to beat Kalen DeBoer's Alabama and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia knows it by heart, because he invented it. In Vandy's 40-35 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama last season, Pavia totaled 40 combined rushes and passes, while Alabama ran 45 plays... total.
In their 24-3 win over the Tide last November, Oklahoma called just 11 pass plays to 25 runs for Jackson Arnold. In their 31-17 win over the Tide to open this season, Tommy Castellanos completed just nine passes for 152 yards while carrying the ball 16 times. Alabama's defenses have consistently struggled to contain the quarterback run game dating back to the Nick Saban era, and that has not changed when the defense changed hands to Wommack. They're often confused and a step slow to react, and also high on their own supply. Last year's Vandy loss came the week after the Georgia win (sound familiar?), and Oklahoma two weeks after the Tide beat LSU by nearly 30 points in Baton Rouge. The Michigan and Florida State losses came after long layoffs.
So, there's a lot to like here if you're No. 16 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). And for as dangerous as Vanderbilt is in the run game, the pass game has added a new element to punish wandering eyes. Last year, the 'Dores completed 30 passes of 20-plus yards across 13 games; they're already at 20 through five contests this year.
The problem for Vandy, however, is that if we're aware of all this, No. 10 Alabama is, too. The Commodores are not going to sneak into Bryant-Denny Stadium undetected and disrespected. And for all the struggles DeBoer has had, they've all come away from home. He's 9-0 at home. If Alabama jumps out early, it's tough to see Vanderbilt overcoming event a modest deficit on the road.
But let's say Vandy's up 14-7 midway through the second quarter, goes on a 7-minute drive to set up a field goal with a minute and a half left before halftime, and Vandy gets the ball to open the second half. Alabama is going to feel like it's drowning on dry land.
The stakes for Vanderbilt. Officially, this is the biggest game since Oct. 4, 2008, when GameDay came to Nashville for No. 13 Auburn at No. 19 Vanderbilt, a game the 'Dores won and moved up to No. 13 before dropping their next four on their way to a 7-6 finish. Vanderbilt also enjoyed back-to-back 9-win seasons under James Franklin, ending both 2012 and '13 in the AP Top 25. So it's not as if you have to go back to ancient times to find successful Commodore squads.
But, c'mon. A win here likely vaults Vanderbilt into the AP top-10 for the first time since 1947 and fully moves Clark Lea's team into the upper echelon of the conference. They are by no means home free with a win here -- after a bye, Vandy gets LSU, Missouri and Texas in succession -- but if you can beat Alabama at Alabama, who can't you beat?