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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Laxtonto

  1. Lots of early analysis on the descent data and its all coming back as coming in way too hot with minimal flare. Now the question is going to be wind shear on the final portion of descent or visual altitude spatial disorientation due to whiteout/snow confusing the horizon. My guess is that they are going with pilot error on this one. They hit extremely hard (1100 fpm is the current estimate vs. the normal 500-600) and unless there was a major wind sheer in the final portion of descent or something else odd found in the blackbox data, the NTSB is going to go with the obvious here.
  2. Sounds like 3 more of them were picked up today. Waiting for a real big name report on this to confirm... This one is WAY out there... not heaven's gate bizzare, but its getting close
  3. WTF? So lots of questions.. How do you grab something through a drive through window? Like did he get out or just crawl through? Whos car and why? This is just so fucking random.. I got a feeling this is going to have something to do with an undefeated pussy, a whip for his baby mama, and someone fooling around on someone..
  4. This one has been discussed on the fringes of the news off and on for a while now. The individual in charge has faked their death (at least once) and there are bizarre allegations of Manson-level compulsion among some of the early followers. Don't forget that there are 340M-ish people in this country. 1% of them have psychopathic tendencies, 3% have sociopath tendencies, approximately 1% are narcissists, and another 5% show Machiavellian tendencies. The pool of people to hit all on those right now in the US? This just goes back to the simple narrative, it is always worthwhile to be nice to people when you can. You never know how is standing next to you in line...
  5. The 2014 borders were never going to happen, without Ukraine making gains into Crimea. The failure/unwillingness/not being permitted to do any measurable advance over the Dnipro sealed that. This has been an ongoing complaint of mine for over a year now. Worse, the loss of most of Donetsk (which once again Ukraine had the opportunity to counterattack and split Luhansk via the Svatore salient but did not) leaves them in the negative in the land trade game. Any argument against that last year or so of operational failures and slow loss of territory has made their bargaining position way worse than it was 12 months ago is now moot. I don't have to like it, but from a negotiations standpoint what is there to "trade" to get back to the 2014 borders? Kurst might get you back Melitpol. Not pushing to Belgorod was a mistake.
  6. Or a coach looking for permission from his wife to move from a place they have been for at for a few years all the while during the little vacation time they get to be home.
  7. I agree, "Rare" is a misnomer as far as % of the upper crust or even full-scale scarcity, but the big pain in the ass is that they are spread all over and most land that they could be found on/in is already claimed or under control by someone else. That and the process of mining them tend to be somewhat regulatory and cost-prohibitive in the US. This is also why Greenland is such a talking point; a huge landmass and little red tape to mine them. The projection in 2020 was that Ukraine would be the 2nd largest producer of REs by 2030 in the world... Not so much now.. I think from a mineral richness standpoint, the value really is that 1/3 of Li for Europe and the Middle East comes from the Ukraine, same with things like Graphite, Titanium, and Uranium. Add into that the RE's and financial and geo-political "value" is there, even before the basic common sense of not letting Putin and Russia expand. Every move being done now is not with an eye of corralling Russia initially, but limiting China. In many ways, the current geopolitical strategic thinking for this (and to some extent the last) administration is that the Cold War has shifted from Russia/US from out childhoods to China/US and we need to approach our viewpoints with that shift in mind. We have to accept that it is viewed that Russia is no longer the greatest threat to the sovereignty of the nations of the globe, and though the invasion of the Ukraine is horrific and barbaric, all moves will be done with limiting China in mind as well.
  8. https://surlyx.com/Breaking911/status/1888334392411779414 Rare earth access for the US to finance Ukraine, while limiting access to those minerals to Russia/China/Iran... Seems very similar to the push for Greenland. Starting to feel like the access to rare earth materials is the AI driven resource need that oil was during the 1960s to the 2010s.
  9. This is good and bad, because if you throw up a map of rare earth minerals, you now have a defacto set of new boundaries for the Ukraine. Back to the carrot and the stick approach to all of these negotiations. I don’t necessarily like the approach because it now implies that the aid we now gives comes at a “price”, but it also now provides a legitimate impetuous for the US to provide assistance that make sure that the mineral rights they get are now being protected. Also it puts added pressure on Russia to be careful of over running locations now in which the US has territorial mineral rights to. The real question will be what aid does this buy and what, if any, conditions that aid comes with? Any new redlines in their use? Any old redlines removed? The devil is in the details.
  10. It provides a way to “invest” into projects to signal legitimacy of a project or desired direction of a technology or concept without having to straight up provide a grant or subsidy. Investing with the expectation of seeing a return is a much different signal than grant and aid. Now how it’s managed or the approach and targets is up in the air, but the major impact would be that that the US SWF sees something is a worthwhile investment or risk would bring legitimacy and there potentially other investors. I am torn if I like the idea of the US having their own SWF, but it’s not a complete waste or graft. The issue I see is that the US generally views that rest of the world see the power of the US market and economy and so outside investors solve all of our capital concerns and so a SWF isn’t really needed. Thinking out the box, could we use the SWF as an investment vehicle for nuclear power in the US and around the globe? Something that is sufficiently cost prohibitive and in the US may not be able to be funded by outside interest due to national security concerns.
  11. Laxtonto

    Hudson Card

    So did Card finish his degree here at UT before he left? Because if so he got a BBA from McCombs and a MBA from Krannert, all on some elses dime...
  12. My guess is that the ATC is going to take some blame for not providing specific detailed approach information vs. just stating if they see the incoming aircraft. The Blackhawk crew will receive most of the blame, and unless something extreme comes up in the aircraft black box, AA will be absolved from any wrongdoing or liability.
  13. DOD released his statement 20 minutes after the incident.
  14. Various reports of "14 on the beach" were pulled from the various emergency frequency chatter, but that could be bodies recovered or survivors.
  15. Transportation Secretary was sworn in this afternoon.... Holy shit first day...
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