Laxtonto

If they can't transport oil or fuel across the Kerch bridge anymore, there is no point in blowing it up (by the way, this is a huge admission tactically by the Russian side). In truth, it might be more useful to force Russia to blow it up on the way out as one last humiliation. It is always better to give the opponent a chance to pull out their troops knowing that the territory in Crimea is the real value in this war. Without fuel or ferries, most of the equipment cannot be pulled out. The troops would be a bonus, but in this day and age, large masses of men are pointless on a battlefield.

1. Air Defenses in Crimea destroyed ✅ 2. Fuel deliveries to Crimea stopped ✅ 3. Water supplies limited due to blowing the dam over the Deniper ✅ 4. ? It is almost like they are checking all the boxes for the precursor for an invasion of Crimea. My guess is that the next step is going to be all bridges from the Kherson Oblast to Crimea and then command and control centers up and down the banks of the Deniper. Then a blocking force out of Nikopol to keep the Melitpol forces occupied and a push from Kherson proper. Control the skies to limit movement and allow better reconnaissance. Cut supplies to make it difficult to move and limit portable power generation, cut the basic necessities for the troops to degrade in effectiveness. That leaves, cutting off all possibility of resupply and limiting the avenues for reinforcement and retreat and then disrupt operational control in the theater and day to day decisions...

The CSU game will be about whether can we get to the QB consistently. If we are finally getting consistent pressure off the edge, then everything will fall into place. If CSU isn't forced to get the ball out fast, even if they get blown out, then I will have serious concerns this year. My view on the Michigan game will be tied to the CSU game and getting pressure. If we can apply pressure with our front 4, then I am much less worried about Michigan, even if it becomes a slog low-scoring ordeal because they have a legit D. If we have to blitz to apply pressure, that makes it more likely that Michigan can grind out drives. We need the sacks to kill drives and give us as many chances to score as we can. Eventually, we wear down the Michigan D if they cant get off the field.

I think this is the part that many on both sides just miss. These are just dumb kids, that are protesting as a group to find a community on campus that are being used by either side of the discussion. We have moved away from the ability to have a reasonable discourse over the topic now and are instead moving to the mob mentality on either side. The problem is that there is no succinct pretty solution that addresses all the concerns from either side, and instead of coming to a reasonable solution we have what we have now. Generally, when a system refuses to find an equilibrium it is being impacted by outside actors that would be negatively impacted by the solution. There are actors on both sides of this that would be better served individually by no solution being found, and at some point that needs to be addressed before a real "end" will ever happen.

The problem is that 30 years ago what was considered "material support" and what will be considered now may be considered two different things. Unfortunately in the highly litigious world politics has become, I am unsure if the old standards apply. How the statute is written to include an individual as personnel, can it be twisted to show that people protesting have some form of financial support from aligned organizations outside of the US are not shown to have a known tie and are still actively then working for the goals of the organizations? It's a major stretch in my view, but how we have seen other statutes "reimagined" lately, I am unwilling to write it off as impossible or even very unlikely. That is my greatest concern with all of this, from a student standpoint. All it takes is this become enough of a hot issue to upset a subset in the DOJ and a large swath of kids' lives will in effect be ruined. While I may disagree with their viewpoint, I don't support people targeting a person's right to protest organically. The problem we run into is what is organic in nature, and what is driven by someone else. As someone who is heavily invested in the international student community, I do question the validity of the organic nature of some policies and approaches and more importantly, I am concerned that the students themselves do not understand that they are more at risk than they perceive.

The issue is actively supporting an U.S.-designated terrorist organization is a valid path for removal from the US. What makes this interesting is that there is a fun legal argument between freedom of speech and knowingly provide “material support or resources” to a designated FTO.

Ive mentioned this before, but the real trick is to split the gap between the Keherson defenses and Melitpol. Strike south to Rykove (where the highways V's into on the east side of northern Crimean map) and stop. Then face eastward to keep Melitpol occupied as a blocking force and tallow Russia to pull back theoir troops from the Kherson river region to Armiansk. If you bottle them up your, then salient is stuck between a trapped force on the east and Melitpol, with no defenses in place. If you let them withdraw, worst case for Russin troops is for them to reinforce Armiansk (which is already reinforced to the point that it is untakeable without prolonged shelling or some creative ways to jump that small isthmus to bottle them up) and they halt y our advance. Best case they then have to take the long way around to reinforce other fronts... But if you can get them to withdraw behind Armiansk and then blow the Kerch bridge, they are in effect trapped with much lower casualties. If you believe that you can hit the bridge whenever you want, you do it after they begin a southward withdrawal. Funny enough, even if they dont attack you have to be leery to pull troops to reinforce Kurst now from there...

Yeah, that does not instill any confidence that the OL is remotely stable... I thought they had all of these guys that were experienced and were ready to make a big step forward. That sounds like we are in the countdown to game day and we still dont really know what we are doing. Not a single name as a starter or who has locked in a position. No discussion about which battles are going on, just straight up we are still trying to find who our best 5 is in general...

Also ongoing fury with #USA in London. The new 🇬🇧govt has confirmed policy is to let #Ukraine use #StormShadow missiles in #Russia. However as some components are supplied by the U.S., permission is needed. Biden's administration has not even replied to the request for a month.

Let me get this right … The natives are getting restless at texags because they realized that the new media policy means they don’t get the reporting they were accustomed to in the past. On top of that, Looch is using that as an excuse to do more video and podcast stuff and not do written practice reports (which you can’t really blame him if because how do you write up a report when you can’t comment on 90% of what you hear/see?) and the older group is taking offense to it. And when they complain about it, what does Looch do? Pitch a fit and go on a banning spree. Never change texags, never change…

Wait until we see this done with F16s in the Crimea with JASSMs...

How the hell can any of the 9.95ers survive if they can't discuss people missing practice, injury news, or even position switches? Getting up-to-date information about the team is the entire point of subscribing to this type of website. That is the business model. You pay people for their access. In turn, the AD lets those people have access to push narratives and help increase fan engagement. If you can't report anything, why pay for it? If you can't talk about anything at practice, why attend? What is the point of attending something you can't write about? Is practice attendance required to have representation as press to the games? Does anyone think the UT 9.95 crew would ever abide to something like this? I get keeping the lid on some things from time to time, but holy fuck this is insane...

I think most of the rest of the CFB world doesn't know yet about the new aggy AD stance on information and how much pravada control is going on regarding A&M injuries.. What I am more curious about is do the boards get in trouble for talking about reporting from Texas boards and how much injury news will now get traded to the UT guys so they can report on the report to try and skate the AD reprisals..

The OL is already suspect and he has had serious injuries in the past and concussion issues... He may not make it to week 6 if they go all Tebow

Owens was their "best back" and Moss was medicore. If Owens is done, how does the Klein offense work without several functional backs? Does this mean that we get more Weigman running the ball?

Did anyone notice that it looks like Russia has sent S-300/S-400/S-500 to Tehran? I am not going to get into the political discussion regarding Israel and Iran here, but my first question has to be, "Where did they come from"? We are already seeing an AD shortage across the entire front in Ukraine. So where did they rob Peter to pay Paul? The other thing is that Russia has been increasingly wary of letting Iran have its newer radar and AD technology. So how can they stand up new ADs around Tehran without them being manned by Russian troops? New tech is new tech. Unless the Iranians have been training on these for months, which they haven't, who is manning these systems? From a geopolitical point, are these ADs in place to help Iran share the burden on their own ADs, so they make sure that the Iranian drone manufacturing plants have adequate coverage? If I was Israel, those manufacturing centers would be very high on my list if Iran starts retaliatory strikes. It would take a major supplier of drones off the map that are a constant annoyance for Isreal and as a benefit hurts the Russian war effort as well... If we are really at the point where Russia is at the maximum deployment of their upper-tier AD, then something is weaker right now than previously. It is time to find it and exploit it. Just something to think about...

Talking to a friend of mine who is a retired Cold War intelligence wonk today about this... We ended up with a laundry list of questions about how and why and what this means. Lots of facets to this that all lead to a variety of interesting questions. 1. How did they know he was going to be in this specific residence 2 months ago? Did they plant this bomb 2 months ago for a jsut in case opportunity or did they know whenever he visits Tehran he always stays there and knew the bomb won't be found? Or did they plant bombs in all of the guesthouses just to be through? I bet there is a lot of ripped-up drywall right now in Tehran.. 2. How did they know he was using that specific guest house? If they planted bombs in all of them, how did they know he was in that specific one that day? If they only had the bomb in that one, how did he get assigned to that particular guest house? Was it chance or did the person involved in assigning rooms put him there on purpose? 3. How did a bomb not get detected in the wall of a guesthouse for over 2 months? So is this an extreme security failure due to poor screening? Or is this a type of bomb-making component that they can't detect? No explosive should be able to avoid detection for over 2 months in a high-end visiting diplomatic residence. Where is the failure? How many failures are there? Where else then might also be at risk? 4. Who in Tehran was involved and how did the Israelis get into the location to plant the bomb? How many points of failure in personal screening and security assessments are there? How far has Israel infiltrated the Republican Guards? 5. When do the purges start in the Security Forces? There are going to be massive questions regarding who they can trust at this point. With a new President and an aging Ayatollah the internal politics is going to be brutal. This now provides a huge cover to settle grudges and, in truth, how can they trust anyone involved in security there now? The fact that they did this in Tehran, in their high-end guest house sends an undeniable message that no one is safe from Israeli reprisals. If they can get Haniyeh there, they can get others elsewhere in Tehran and throughout the world. This sends a much larger message than people want to admit to...

So they are now looking to use sub-based cruise missiles to attack Ukraine? This is a sign that they are pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel regarding cruise missile production and instead are looking to use the much more expensive sub based systems... That is absolutely wild that they are insinuating that this is a good idea or a show of force. These are deterrent-based offensive weapons whose primary value is from surprise. This is a sign of desperation and it they use them as just localized missile platforms, the Ukrainians will find a way to sink one of these. The Black Sea is tiny and I am fairly sure we know exactly where these subs are at all times...

Is this sad that I sorta want one of these?