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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Laxtonto

  1. I think people are underestimating the intelligence capital spent by Israel in all of this and why they keep grinding forward on the information they have. Like anything in that is perishable, information has a shelf life. Worst the ability to harvest that information is subject to whims of the environment around it. Israel has in effect expended most of their information resources to deliver a massive debilitating blow and now will be on the backside of the information curve as the means and sources used to gather that intelligence has been severely compromised in Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. All around the Middle East you should see regime-wide security reviews, SOP shakeups, communication protocol changes, and a re-vetting of all personnel with access to sensitive people, locations, comms, and information. That is going to seriously hamper future intelligent gathering. What Israel has going for it is massive chaos in the leadership structure and a fear of communication devices, which will keep Lebanon and to some extent Iran from being organized and keep them reactionary. But like anything else, time will erode that advantage. Therefore Israel must achieve as many of its goals in Lebanon as possible to put Iran in a position that their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon are not viable to keep supporting and doing so puts them at more of a risk than the prestige loss by abandoning them.
  2. The day is upon us. What is worse there is limited coverage of this nationally and so tomorrow this is going to be wall to wall everywhere with people being surprised that it is happening. The problem is that neither side wants a good faith solution and so both sides can be entrenched with limited repercussions. The last major ILA strike lasted several months and the ULAW decided to not work any ship that was redirected. There is a strong chance that this will tie up both coasts for months and still lead to a quicker adoption of automation. Anything on the ports that the longshoreman don’t control will begin automation and there will be a concerted effort to chip away at what activities that have joint union control. This is going to be real ugly because I don’t really see either side wanting to budge and the current administration is hamstrung by the election. There are not any simple solutions to this one now, and so be prepared…
  3. Complete and total destruction of a command structure. The level of attention to detail, specialized intelligence, planning, and timing it takes to do something like this in less than two weeks is amazing. This is one of those operations that will end up in training manuals and history books.
  4. The bigger issue is that the ILA refuse to negotiate unless all demands are met, which isn’t really negotiating. They have been sitting out and refusing to negotiate for a month or so. l almost wonder if they were expecting the Biden administration to start the process for Taft-Hartley and then be forced to accepted the NRLB negotiations and outcome as fact, instead of actual negotiations. My feeling is the NRLB would use the ILWU’s recent agreement as the baseline and then tweak it higher. That would be a major win for most of the ILA because the difference in tax structure between the west and east coast. With the steps for Taft-Hartley not being started, the union only has the UMX offer to take back to their members , which the leadership have stated from the very beginning is not acceptable. So the leadership can’t accept less than their extreme position they pitched from UMX with losing face and without Taft-Hartley their isn’t going to be a mechanism to allow the ILA be save face and blame the major difference in the new deal on the NRLB. This shouldn’t have ever gotten this far. I’m not a fan of governmental intervention in labor disputes, but this is one that the major impact to the country should be taken into account and force a negotiation through the Taft-Hartley act.
  5. LOL
  6. So Israel has all of their comms, all of their logistic intel, and knows all the moves they are trying to make. This was just a subtle reminder to Iran that they are still completely compromised and anything you try to sneak into Lebanon they already know about and they can destroy at a whim. Save face and don't do anything foolish. Iran will of course do some small level of retaliatory strike, which Israel will withstand and then Iran can then accept the fact that their proxy in Lebanon is gone. Or Iran can go all out and Israel will do something similar to Iran. Funny enough, Iran has already moved the Supreme Leader to an undisclosed hardened location...
  7. Not sure how they can reverse that... Refs jobbed VT most of the night. Miami is going to get smoked by a real team
  8. So how much does the ACC want Miami in the playoffs?
  9. From fucking Ohio TEXAS!!
  10. Another interesting question is what does this do the the EU's and China's current financial data? Both are teetering on the edge of recession and very simply, most terms on contracts finalized full payment are contingent on delivery. If it can't get off the boat, you aren't getting paid (in part or full depending on the setup). If the economy is already tight and interest rates are high, then we are looking at a limit in short-term bridge financing while they are waiting for the goods to hit the port... This whole thing could blow up and make the markets puke everywhere.
  11. Well, he could always go to UNLV… The problem Weigman will have is he needs a landing place that has a solid OL that isn’t high profile that will bring him in on his hype and potential and not look at any of his tape…. Sorta like the DJU situation with FSU. Maybe Miami? Maybe Clemson?
  12. Lack of port Infrastructure to deal with the load, plus most major bulk or container ships can't fit through the locks to unload. Maybe reroute some to Montreal and truck to the US, but now we are talking about additional delays to customs plus another bump in cots/import taxes. Heavy equipment made in SA and raw bulk like bauxite, iron ore, nickel and lithium from Africa. Then your standard European export set. If you are looking at potential shorts on commodities, I would drill down into how sensitive HRC Steel to the import price of iron ore from abroad and how much comes through the East Coast ports vs being shipped via train from Canada and the US. The bigger problem is it isn't just this shipping cycle, it will also impact next several ones as you deal with the bullwhip effect downstream concern is that if they all reroute, you swamp the West Coast and then we have a cascade of delays for not this shipping cycle but the next several ones as you deal with the bullwhip effect downstream. This is going to the be inverse of what happened when China shut down its export ports during COVID. Hope for a quick resolution to this because if it lasts say two weeks, we could see a much smaller set of stock for the golden retail season. If we limit consumer spending this winter, how many retailers miss their 4th projections? It can cascade into a much larger financial issue that could see a downgrade in GDP estimates..
  13. Not sure great for us if he self immolates and quits. Tarp is great for some consistent hammering on the aggy delusions and it might be fun to see him self immolate and burn down the 24/7 site on the way out the door, it would then only reinforce the echo chamber of texags afterwards. What he really needs to do is keep fighting the fight and publicly keep showing the rest of the world the level of editorial control thr AD is requiring. That way he is still there to hammer the delusional aggys plus keep building discontent with how the Elk and the AD are lying to the fan base…
  14. This is a no-win situation right now. If they get their demands met, then port fees and shipping costs will jump significantly. If they don’t we are looking at a full shutdown of the east coast shipping terminals and massive jumps in shipping rates and delays as they re-route to the West coast. This is would get incredibly ugly very fast and right now it seems the union doesn’t mind if it happens. I would recommend on stocking up on seasonal items that ship from Europe, South America, and Africa as a personal consumer and be prepared to get slaughtered on bulk and can shipping as a business…
  15. I think many are wiping it now out of caution of bad press. I think Usher might be more involved in the case as a cooperating witness and wiped his out of self preservation. The old Usher tweets were pretty wild, if I remember correctly.
  16. Usher and Pink have deleted their twitter. Usher makes sense as a cooperating witness, as he has previously talked about being at Diddy's parties at 13. Pink.... no clue.
  17. I don't watch pro football in general for my own sanity... but here
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