Lack of port Infrastructure to deal with the load, plus most major bulk or container ships can't fit through the locks to unload. Maybe reroute some to Montreal and truck to the US, but now we are talking about additional delays to customs plus another bump in cots/import taxes.
Heavy equipment made in SA and raw bulk like bauxite, iron ore, nickel and lithium from Africa. Then your standard European export set. If you are looking at potential shorts on commodities, I would drill down into how sensitive HRC Steel to the import price of iron ore from abroad and how much comes through the East Coast ports vs being shipped via train from Canada and the US.
The bigger problem is it isn't just this shipping cycle, it will also impact next several ones as you deal with the bullwhip effect downstream concern is that if they all reroute, you swamp the West Coast and then we have a cascade of delays for not this shipping cycle but the next several ones as you deal with the bullwhip effect downstream. This is going to the be inverse of what happened when China shut down its export ports during COVID.
Hope for a quick resolution to this because if it lasts say two weeks, we could see a much smaller set of stock for the golden retail season. If we limit consumer spending this winter, how many retailers miss their 4th projections? It can cascade into a much larger financial issue that could see a downgrade in GDP estimates..