Jump to content

Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    7229
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

Everything posted by Laxtonto

  1. Who was on the helicopter? How VIP are we talking?
  2. All schools allow add drop with conditional signatures (generally up until week 5 or so) for various circumstances. My guess if he decides this weekend, he will be in class on Monday.
  3. https://surlyx.com/TWMCLtd/status/1883421271519637985
  4. This is the area that actually might force Trump to be more hardlined with Russia over the negotiations to end the war. He is very concerned with nuclear war and sounds like he seems the expansion of the global nuclear arsenal as a whole negatively. So the real question is what is the leverage of a reduced NATO timeline vs Ukrainian nuclear development? I have to admit this is an avenue I haven’t really thought about and probably requires more in-depth thought. I might reach out to some of the old school Eastern Europe nuclear proliferation scholars I know and see their view point on this. Funny how their area of expertise went to the way side and now is coming screaming back to the forefront.
  5. There is no rational argument that the Russia of today is better off than it was in 2021. There is no functional argument that allows anyone to believe that the 50-year timeline is more positive for Russia in the post-2021 version of events in comparison to a plausible per-invasion timeline. The problem is that Putin made a move, that if was successful ie the 3 day planned rollup of Kiev, that would have placed Russia in a much better place than they were in 2021 geopolitically. But that move failed and now we are all living Putin's sunk cost fallacy as he hopes to now win his Phrryic victory for his own legacy of expansion at the cost of Russia's well-being as a whole. This is a case of a leader being unwilling to recognize and disengage from a mistake. In many cases, he does not have a ton of positive viable off-ramps that would allow him to save face now. He caught the tiger by the tail and doesn't have a way to let go without getting mauled. All he can hope for is that the tiger starves to death before he does. I am starting to be of the belief that Putin really has some sort of slow terminal illness and all of these ideas and agreements are looking to blunt his steady slide into madness knowing full well that after the fact they will be overridden in the chaos.
  6. It is obvious Trump wants the war over and by tapping Kellog to be his envoy it implies that the direction they are going to go is similar to what Kellog and Fleitz proposed in June. That was a full stop everywhere and an eventual rollback to 2022 borders and delaying Ukrainian NATO membership for 10 years or so to allow Russia time to plan for these new eventualities and then some type of carrot for both Russia and the Ukraine as far as rebuilding goes. If Russia doesn't agree, the idea was full-on crippling sanctions of Russia and anyone doing any form of trade with Russia (so no oil caps for the sale of Russia oil to India, straight embargo, no 3rd party sales of anything to Russia, no electronic access to anything from the rest of the world) and the gloves come off militarily in how we provide aid. The problem now is since June when the plan was developed Ukraine is in a worse position and much of that can be attributed to a failure by the prior administration to let them fight the war the way it needed to be fought. Looking back in retrospect, I think it is fairly obvious that the prior administration (and to some extent the EU) was more interested in winning the PR war than the Ukraine war. The assumption was winning the PR war would mean the real war would follow in line. I will use the delivery of the F15s as an example. We spent a huge amount of time and money dedicated to training, equipping, and maintaining these systems, but all they are being used for is drone and cruise missile interdiction. No hardcore attacks with air-ground systems to wipe out the Kerch bridge. No systematic destruction over Crimea via the Black Sea. We provided Ukraine with a super expensive toy that should be an extreme force multiplier. Still, due to a variety of reasons, it is a net waste of capital and time if compared with more conventional weapons systems of the same value. How many decisions mirror this? I applaud the initial idea of sending Abrams, but it is painfully obvious the Bradley is much better suited for this war and yet we still have approximately 1500 still in storage. From a MRO standpoint, why not admit the Abrams are not what is needed and swap them out 2 for 1 with Bradleys? Simplify the MRO side and provide Ukraine what they can use more effectively. The red lines with the ATCAMS, the limiting of weapon systems uses and variants. It is sad to say that I have much greater hope that there will be a "positive" result with Trump than I am with Biden. It won't be what I want, but I don't think the 2 or 4 more years of a slow grinding war is something I can stomach either.
  7. It looks like Trump has begun the stick part of the carrot and the stick public negotiations to end the war. Interestingly, what many of us alluded to was true; the US never went all out economically and politically against Russia. This is one of those aspects that a change in regime means it is acceptable to wholesale change approaches. Now look for the carrot...
  8. Jeff Howe is out at 24/7
  9. So then we need to probably find a SR or Grad TE this Spring? Not the worst issue as far as losing a potential player that could potentially be a starter...
  10. It’s wild seeing both Cook and Hudson falling apart . Both were viewed as all works types and now we are wondering if they are going to end up giving zj’s somewhere off the back streets by Harry Hines…
  11. All 3 sacks are tied to Cam getting beat
  12. Cam is getting destroyed. His knee is just not well enough., Put in Goose
  13. Damint Bolden... a heart attack every return
×
×
  • Create New...